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Froot,
Not at all. You completely misunderstand. The spread is just one measure of expected performance.
Here are a few things that I look at:
1) Spread.
2) Every offensive and defensive stat.
3) Comp and relative performance.
4) Personnel lost/returning starters.
-Spread is fairly well known. We are 1-2 this year.
-The stats are mediocre. You can look at them here if you wish. Click National from the ribbon across the header. http://www.cfbstats.com
-Now comp:
1. Miami, neutral site. Won by 31. Great, right? Well, it’s a game 1, but I was hopeful the Canes were a quality team and by extension this was a quality win. The Canes are now 1-2 and should be 0-3. A down App State really should have won the game @Miami. The Canes did hit their 40+ yard FG late in the 4th to go ahead and seal the win, though, so credit to them for beating an App State team that wasn’t expected to be up to their good G5 pedigree. Finally, Mich State played at Miami and beat the Canes by 21. Assuming the standard 3-point swing for homefield, we can reasonably guess this performance was within a TD of Bama’s. This score comparison isn’t anything exact. Just eyeball.
2. Mercer. They are a bad 1AA team. Yes, sure they beat the NAIA Point University Skyhawks in game 1, and they have not played game 3, but they are traditionally bad in 1AA.
3. Florida. Great win, right? Florida should have won this game. It was close, but it boiled down to a botched PAT, which caused a late 2-point attempt (that was botched). Those blunders with an untimely INT let us sneak out of Gainesville with a fairly lucky win. But, hey, Florida is a great team! Are they? They lost a similar amount of talent as Bama, and have not looked that good. They beat FAU by 21 and South Florida by 22. Neither team is thought to be in danger of making waves - even in G5.
-Finally, personnel: We return just three starters on offense. On defense, we currently have 6 guys who started last year. Hopes were high for the underclassmen trying on bigger shoes, but the adjusted production and efficiency are way down.
Anyway. I hope I’m wrong, but I’m usually not when it comes to Alabama football. “Oh, you won!” Yeah. We did and I’m thankful, but my eyes and brain work and I am not hypnotized by the crimson laundry they wear. Oh, and by normal standards, we will still be “good”. 10-2 or 9-3 in the regular season. Probably the Citrus like alllllllll the way back to (checks notes) year before last. But maybe the young’uns grow into those roles and meet expectations. I hope so. If they do, I will gleefully eat every word.
“But, but, but, you’re just sandbagging!!!! I just know it!!”
Okay, scooter, whatever you say.
Not at all. You completely misunderstand. The spread is just one measure of expected performance.
Here are a few things that I look at:
1) Spread.
2) Every offensive and defensive stat.
3) Comp and relative performance.
4) Personnel lost/returning starters.
-Spread is fairly well known. We are 1-2 this year.
-The stats are mediocre. You can look at them here if you wish. Click National from the ribbon across the header. http://www.cfbstats.com
-Now comp:
1. Miami, neutral site. Won by 31. Great, right? Well, it’s a game 1, but I was hopeful the Canes were a quality team and by extension this was a quality win. The Canes are now 1-2 and should be 0-3. A down App State really should have won the game @Miami. The Canes did hit their 40+ yard FG late in the 4th to go ahead and seal the win, though, so credit to them for beating an App State team that wasn’t expected to be up to their good G5 pedigree. Finally, Mich State played at Miami and beat the Canes by 21. Assuming the standard 3-point swing for homefield, we can reasonably guess this performance was within a TD of Bama’s. This score comparison isn’t anything exact. Just eyeball.
2. Mercer. They are a bad 1AA team. Yes, sure they beat the NAIA Point University Skyhawks in game 1, and they have not played game 3, but they are traditionally bad in 1AA.
3. Florida. Great win, right? Florida should have won this game. It was close, but it boiled down to a botched PAT, which caused a late 2-point attempt (that was botched). Those blunders with an untimely INT let us sneak out of Gainesville with a fairly lucky win. But, hey, Florida is a great team! Are they? They lost a similar amount of talent as Bama, and have not looked that good. They beat FAU by 21 and South Florida by 22. Neither team is thought to be in danger of making waves - even in G5.
-Finally, personnel: We return just three starters on offense. On defense, we currently have 6 guys who started last year. Hopes were high for the underclassmen trying on bigger shoes, but the adjusted production and efficiency are way down.
Anyway. I hope I’m wrong, but I’m usually not when it comes to Alabama football. “Oh, you won!” Yeah. We did and I’m thankful, but my eyes and brain work and I am not hypnotized by the crimson laundry they wear. Oh, and by normal standards, we will still be “good”. 10-2 or 9-3 in the regular season. Probably the Citrus like alllllllll the way back to (checks notes) year before last. But maybe the young’uns grow into those roles and meet expectations. I hope so. If they do, I will gleefully eat every word.
“But, but, but, you’re just sandbagging!!!! I just know it!!”
Okay, scooter, whatever you say.
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