M-Borg vs. THE Flavortown U Thread, Orig. by Buckeye Paul, absconded w/by talent.

[iam416]

2018 recruiting predictions from Greene:

Gill: Yes. Oates: Yes, if he's a taker. Carman: Yes. Woodbey: Highly probable. Vincent: Highly probable. Gant: Highly probable. Gaoteote: Yes.

Gill, Carman, Woodbey and Vincent are currently 5* and Gaoteote is the highest ranked 4* in the 247 composite (and I think he's an absolute 5* -- and I think Gill will drop to 4).

Gant is a top 100 player and Oakes is run-of-the-mill lower 4*.

[iam416]

Yes, M sucked on the road last season but I also think that they were not nearly as good on D than they are this season and on the road, that is important.

M had a 5-game stretch where they gave up 14 total points including an unfathomable 3 straight shutouts. They then largely stopped MSU but for some really nice throws here and there by Cook, one botched defensive play and the disaster at the end. Then they had to play 3 totally mediocre -- but not bad -- teams on the road. The Goofers moved the ball extremely well and should have beat them. IU, of course, thrashed their defense, and could have won the game. And the PSU game was even a bit of a grind.

I know you are well aware of this, but it's worth repeating. Last year at this time folks thought M's defense hung the moon. Now, I agree with you that their defense is better than last year's group if for no other reason than another year of experience.

But, going on the road poses a greater risk for surprising challenges from mediocre teams, IMO. I mean, shit...OSU's 2014 team got up 17-0 on PSU in HV at night. Then JTB threw a pick 6 and UFM went to a plan that Tressel would have called conservative thinking Suckenberg couldn't score 10 more points. And, yet, PSU somehow managed indescribably frustrating drives to tie the game and force OT. It was an extremely close game that should have never been. And then, two weeks later, the same offense asswails MSU in EL for 49 points. A lot of people at OSU point to the PSU game as a turning point -- winning a tough game on the road helped the team.

One of the things I really like about this year's OSU team is that they have had to play two really tough night games on the road, and they've won them both. And against very different teams. Penn State is another challenge, even though they aren't anywhere near as good as Wisky or OU. But, I like knowing that this team has been in some really hard spots and won.

[Hannibal]

At least some of PSU's LBs are still out. OSU will slaughter them.

[iam416]

Yeah, their LB situation is dire. If they're still playing walk-ons then, yeah...that's problematic.

[Jeff Buchanan]

M's 2015 shutouts were probably a fluke or, and I haven't gone back to check unit match-ups, the match-ups favored M in those games. And, yes, there was a lot of probably unjustified enthusiasm for the D after those shutouts.

But the weaknesses on M's D were pretty obvious v. the Gophers. The middle was weak and the LBs and Ss were susceptible to the PA. Durkin didn't do a great job of figuring out a way to protect the edge given some of the LB issues and that was IU's and osu's gain.

So, yeah, experience and, maybe to a greater degree Brown and his system that works really well for Peppers. The experience plus part shows best on the DL where these guys are keeping the game off the LBs or are funneling them really well. McCray and Gideon at the LB spots have also been a nice surprise this season. Both of them have been shown to get the job done with a nice turn of speed in protecting the edges.

[The Oracle]

Our LBs are WAY better this year, our DL is MUCH deeper and better. Those are the main things. Everyone scoffed at the injuries to the DL last year, but it was real.

[iam416]

The B10 may be the only conference where M will basically come into the OSU game having not played an offense like OSU's for 9-10 weeks. Colorado's offense is, IMO, at least comparable in terms of ability and scheme, but from Colorado to OSU, nothing.

Conversely, OSU has to play several manball offenses of varying skill. And some spread offenses like OU and UNL.

I guess, IMO, M won't really know what they have on defense until they play OSU. I feel like I'll know exactly what OSU has on both sides of the ball going into that game. That said, I still like M to win and, perhaps, comfortably. But it's a really odd schedule.

[Jeff Buchanan]

In terms of offensive philosophy, IU matches osu pretty well. Even though it's at home for M and I get what you're saying about playing on the road, I'm less inclined to put a lot of weight in the home field advantage unless an inferior team talent wise and at home is playing a much better team.

I don't think the converse is true. Just IMO.

[iam416]

Correct re IU, but they're not particularly good offensively this season. OSU is a completely different animal. That's why I said Colorado -- they have roughly the same philosophy AND they're a pretty good offense. They don't have OSU's talent, but they're a credible read. They'd be a far more useful read if they played in November, but, eh, whatever.

[THE_WIZARD_]

tOSU 89 UNL 3

[Pasadena Blue]

pretty sure our D started going south last year with the loss of Glasgow and no Mone available to fill that void -- this made the middle vulnerable. Gedeon and McCray + Pep are significant upgrades in athleticism compared to last year's LB corps --- Talent is correct that we all drank the kool-aid that these guys were adequate but they were not up to the task against better teams without the center of D-line holding up. Also think DB is an upgrade over DJD and is better at in-game adjustments.

Having said that, I agree that this all remains theoretical until we face IU and O-state at the end of the year.

Just want to make that clear so that I don't have to deal with invariable/expected "you all had unbridled enthusiasm for your D last year" crap when next year rolls around.

[The Oracle]

Ojemudia going down really hurt too.

[iam416]

Welp, I have no idea how they lost that game. That's a bizarre turn of events. But, I do have an idea of what this team is, and I've been right.

I guess that's their mulligan. But, it really doesn't matter.

[The Oracle]

I can't tell if you've been sandbagging the whole time and was wrong or you've been right the whole time. You can't convince me either way.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Tough loss, man.

Thanks for posting.

You're right. PSU was bound and determined to lose this one.

I'll let you think about it for a while. It's gonna sting.