M-Borg vs. THE Flavortown U Thread, Orig. by Buckeye Paul, absconded w/by talent.

[The Oracle]

Agreed.

[AlabamAlum]

Ohio State is the best team in the country and no one else is really close.

[iam416]

Patience, Oracle. We'll have several great money-making opportunities culminating with season-ending game. Hopefully money line is around +300.

[WM Wolverine]

OSU is embarrassing everyone they play (~670 yards of offense to ~115 yards allowed to Rutgers?); however they haven't played anyone other than poop and a probably overrated Oklahoma squad.

I've said we'll know just HOW good they might be after they play Wisconsin this week. M didn't allow Wisconsin to do shit while M's offense had to really work to move the chains and Speight was lucky to not have a couple more INT's.

It'll be a game I'll certainly watch very closely, time permitting.

[iam416]

OU has a pretty good offense. They can run and pass. They don't have a game breaking WR, though. Their defense is hot garbage and, in particular, their DL is soft.

Wisky is a good gauge for OSU's offense, and in particular, power running game. Their offense is less of a test than OU.

OSU's defense has scored 4 TDs and conceded 2 through the first 4. Rutgers' offense managed to shutout the OSU defense. Heh. God, what a horrible team.

[The Oracle]

OSU is embarrassing everyone they play (~670 yards of offense to ~115 yards allowed to Rutgers?); however they haven't played anyone other than poop and a probably overrated Oklahoma squad.

I've said we'll know just HOW good they might be after they play Wisconsin this week. M didn't allow Wisconsin to do shit while M's offense had to really work to move the chains and Speight was lucky to not have a couple more INT's.

It'll be a game I'll certainly watch very closely, time permitting.

If Michigan would have executed like they usually do in the red zone, that game could have gotten ugly. Granted, it's always tougher against good Ds, but still. They did fine moving the ball between the 20s.

[iam416]

a probably overrated Oklahoma squad.

At the moment, I think OU is about fairly rated in the 20-25 range. Honestly, Wisconsin is far more likely to be overrated at #8 and even 11/13 than OU is in the 20s. At this point, OU's schedule sets up for a pretty good finish. And they're back in their B12 comfort zone where they can score out the ass against most teams.

As I said, I think OU and Wisky are both "one-side-of-the-ball" teams. Having watched Ohio State outscore teams and having watched the Fickell Season, hmmmm, I think I'd rather have OU's team. It's nice to know that 21-7 isn't anything to worry about; it's dispiriting to know 49-24 isn't safe. But, man, it's soul-crushing to know that 20 points beats you.

Anyway, it's an esoteric argument. Wisky and OU are both in what I'd call a third tier mass that is mostly a bunch of teams that are good, but not good enough to win 11 games. Second tier is teams I still have doubts about that could, in theory, win 11 -- Vals, aTm, Miami, UNL etc. By season's end they'll either move down to 3rd tier (most likely) or up to the the First tier. First tier are the CFP teams. Right now I'd say SEC Winner (Tide, duh); OSU-M winner (HARBAUGH); Clemson; and Louisville-Houston winner (Petrino-ugh).

I don't think Washington makes it through with just 1 loss. Stanford, in theory, could if they get healthy. Then the narrative is a bad loss at Seattle w/ backups everywhere. But I think they're still good for a loss, too.

So, I have B10/SEC/ACC and then the Louisville/Houston winner. I really can't see Louisville being pushed at all. Though, heh, don't look now but BC leads the nation in Total Defense! LOL.

So, I'll say:

Alabama, M, Clemson and Louisville, seeded in that order.

[Jeff Buchanan]

.........

So, I'll say:

Alabama, M, Clemson and Louisville, seeded in that order.

Decent list but it does not comport with our quick discussion regarding M's D being a mitigating factor for what jtb brings to the osu offense.

Pretty sure your sense is that you are going with the option that Brown will NOT out-coach ufm and by extension, jtb and the osu offense will not be mitigated in the least. i.e., M is not going to beat osu and go on to the BTCG.

So, I'll say you'd really say, barring any attempts to hedge your position:

Alabama, osu, Clemson and Louisville seeded in that order.

[iam416]

I don't think M has a coaching advantage. I do think M has a talent advantage that will make it tough on OSU's offense. UFM will have to create mismatches which will be very hard to do against a well-coached defense.

I also think Speight is coming along and M's OL does pass block well.

It's the Year of Harbaugh, man. It happens.

But that's where I am with the bulk of the conference slate to play. Things could obviously change.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Fair enough.

Speight is pretty average among BT QBs according to one statistically based analysis I read over at mgoblog so, not sure, from my perspective, that he actually IS coming along. I think he is what he is - average - and will remain so. He's the type of guy who is not going to manufacture points like jtb is and Harbaughffense is not the kind of offense that scares anyone. Proof of that assertion is how JH played the game v. Wisconsin, esp. in the red zone.

You're right though, things can obviously change, we've got, what, 6 more games and osu has 7, right?

With your post that you think osu's DL is not great, that might imply that you think, at this point in the season anyway, that teams like Wisky, MSU, maybe IU, and certainly M will move the ball on offense and mount a challenge to osu's 12-0 goal? None of the stat based prediction models see osu going 11-1 or worse. High probability osu will go 12-0 though in all of them except maybe Fremeau which I haven't seen yet.

[iam416]

I think OSU's DTs good, but not great; I think OSU's DEs are monsters. The DTs are getting better, but it's easy (for me) to tell that UFM's biggest recruiting misses have been at DT -- I mean, they get their plan B guys, but no elite monsters. Their DE rotation is fantastic. I think all 4 are or will be NFL caliber -- and top 3 rounds NFL caliber. They're also rotating in some of the DEs to the interior on obvious passing downs.

The DTs not being great is offset, in large part, by McMillan. He's been great. He's a legit 1st round pick. If the DTs just do their job and occupy blockers, then he makes the plays between the tackles. And the DTs can do that. Plus, Worley and Baker have been really good at LB, too.

So, I feel good about the front 7, but I'm still lacking a data point for a physical run-oriented offense. OU has two really good backs, but I'm nonplussed by their OL. So, we'll see how OSU does against a committed, power football team.

[Jeff Buchanan]

...... So, we'll see how OSU does against a committed, power football team.

Wisconsin?

That's not going to tell you much. Their OL is not great, Bob.

Maybe MSU and in EL may help them a bit but then again, the big piece missing there is QB play. Without it, the PA is not much of a threat so, play the run. I'd argue there's some chemistry issues going on in the club house. Just a gut feeling but last week's performance against IU was telling.

I am looking forward to osu's match-up with IU. Really like what they're doing down there. osu is still going to win that one but it will be fun to watch two pretty good spread teams, one spread to run the other spread to pass, go at it.

I can't really say Harbaughffese is "committed to a power run game." JH does too much with his TEs and the passing game to call it that. Maybe by necessity and he'd like to commit to the power run offense so, there is that.

[Jeff Buchanan]

SB Nation did an article on osu's weaknesses. As I read it, it goes along with some of the things talent has mentioned as problem areas. Lots of time for these problems to disappear but when Brian does his UFRs of M he points to trends that then tend to become indicators of a weakness. Eleven Warriors Analysis 4 games in?

Anyway, I like the notion that jtb may not do as well, not as well meaning short of superman, when he's dealing with > 3rd and 4 because the run game might not be working (it hasn't been a problem against 4 pretty weak opponents including, it seems, OU) but it could be against Wisconsin's D in two weeks.

I also like the bit about shutting down his two primary pass catching targets. Cover them and jtb might get a little confused. Enter Lewis and Stribbling.

talent?

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/10/4/13160088/ohio-state-buckeyes-2016-urban-meyer-jt-barrett?utm_campaign=sbn_billc&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

[iam416]

(1) Any team is worse off in 3rd and long than 3rd and short. I doubt OSU is more adversely affected than, say, M. I'm personally fine with OSU's WR corps, but there's no doubt Samuel is their go-to guy, and then Brown.

(2) I don't think their lack of 50 yard runs is a weakness. I would personally have their running game as a strength, but what do I know?

(3) No. The pass rush is plenty good.

(4) They are young. That won't change.

Again, regarding OU, their offense is, IMO, miles ahead of Wisky. The Wisky defense is far more of a challenge.

[iam416]

An interesting article on the recruitment of a 2018 5* CB from Georgia. The article focuses on UFM and Ohio State...and its written by a Georgia site. https://www.dawgnation.com/football/...out-of-georgia