M-Borg vs. THE Flavortown U Thread, Orig. by Buckeye Paul, absconded w/by talent.

[iam416]

I enjoy looking back on February recruiting takes and seeing how massively wrong things were. To that end, below are recruits that OSU is probably the leader for at the this time as ranked by the 247 Composite:

7. Kareem Walker (RB -- OSU Verbal)
10. Nick Bosa (DE)
52. Demario McCall (RB)
66. George Hill (RB -- OSU Verbal)
68. Jake Hausmann (TE -- OSU Verbal)
70. Brendan Ferns (LB)
71. Prince Sammons (SDE)
81. Liam Eichenberg (OT)
98. Justin Layne (WR)
100. Jarrett Guarantano (QB)
103. Austin Robertson (WDE)
117. Austin Mack (WR)

Of those 12, I'll say 10 end up with OSU. Guarantano opts for Rutgers (really hope I'm wrong) and 1 of the Ohio guys goes OoS (Ferns to WV or Sammons to ?).

OSU is also very much in play for other top 125 kids. I'll say they land 2 not listed above.

[Optimus Prime]

Miller has to be on the take or is dumber than sack of hammers.

Jones has the starting job and Barnett has him backed, instead of injury-prone Miller transferring to start, there is talk of changing positions?

He's nothing more than Meyer/OSU's insurance policy, if he hopes to get drafted he needs to play the entire season.

[iam416]

He loves Ohio State. I think if he's fully recovered he'll start. If he isn't he's open to being used in the offense other ways. UFM will use Braxton.

[hack]

You really think he'll start? Were I UFM I'd prefer the better passing of the other two and surrender the big-play ability because you don't need it as much as that steady credible passing threat.

[iam416]

I think it will be Braxton or Cardale with a slight edge to Braxton. He did beat out both Cardale and JTB previously. Granted both are considerably improved since then. But I think a lot of folks forget how good Braxton was/is. I mean, well, he's really good.

I tend to lean toward your way of thinking, Hack, but I think BM will start if he's 100%. Of course, if Cardale will have the entire spring to himself. He could make more progress and win it. But, I'll stick with BM appropriately caveated.

[Optimus Prime]

Meyer is stuck with Jones after what he delivered for him. Starting Miller would be an insult and likely earn Meyer a shive In the kidney.

[WM Wolverine]

What is Braxton's w/l record for his career?

[iam416]

Well, excluding the Year of Fickell, he's 22-2. In the Year of Fickell he was 3-4 as a starter and that's excluding the Nebraska game because he left that game up 27-6 when the Great Bausermann Debacle temporarily blinded me. I guess I should also not count Purdue 2012 when Guiton led a comeback win.

So, let's say 21-2 or 24-6.

Here are Braxton's 2013 numbers, JTB's 2014 numbers and Cardale's 3-game run numbers:

JTB: 203/314 for 64.7%, 2834 yds, 9.04 YPA, 34/10 and 171 carries for 938 yards, 11 TDs.
Cardale: 56/92 for 60.9%, 860, 9.35 YPA, 7/2 and 72 carries for 296, 1 TD.
Braxton: 162 for 255 for 63.5%, 2094 yds, 8.21 YPA, 24/7 and 171 carries for 1068 yards, 12 TDs.

Braxton missed two huge numbers padding games against Cal and FAMU. For my money, JTB is perfect for the offense. He lacks Miller's speed, but he has really good vision and sense of down and distance. He doesn't break many big plays, but he is fantastic on QB leads (ask MSU!). He doesn't have Cardale's arm...no one does...but he is very accurate in all zones. He just can't stretch the field quite the same way Cardale can.

Braxton has NFL caliber arm strength to go with obvious explosive running skills. He's not as accurate as he needs to be, IMO.

Cardale's arm holds safeties at 20 yards. Both Alabama and Oregon had real problems dealing with his ability to pierce their zone 20 yards downfield AND account for Elliot. I don't think it's a coincidence that Elliot had his best games with Jones in.

Hmmmm, maybe I've talked myself in Jones now -- in mid-post even. Eh, the best I can do is throw up my hands and say it's one of them good problems to have.

[iam416]

On the offensive side of the ball, the other interesting position battle will be at WR. Losing Devin Smith will hurt, but losing Evan Spencer may hurt even more. Spencer is the kind of badass downfield blocker that turns 5 yard gains into 25.

I expect Thomas to step up as the #1 guy. I think Johnnie Dixon has the potential to be outstanding (he was in the rotation as a true frosh before getting hurt). Not sure who will step up as the "Spencer" amongst the group.

Of less interest is seeing who will replace Darryl Baldwin at RT. It's interesting because it's a veteran of solid talent (Chase Ferris) vs. a young pup with gads of talent (Jamarco Jones). I expect Jones to get lots of time next year. I also expect Demetrius Knox to get time on the interior even those guys are all back. And I'll keep my fingers crossed for no injuries because the cavalry is still a year away.

[WM Wolverine]

One stat not listed is sacks, who gets sacked the most. Ask M's QB's how big of a problem that can be to making an offense look worse than it should be...

[iam416]

I'd wager a lot that Ohio State had more 3 and outs last season than this. I recall them putting 60 on Illinois, but every drive was either a TD or a 3 and out. It was of some significance because the defense was so god-awful that short fields were death even against the likes of Scheelhase.

I think the biggest contrast between 2014 and 2013 is 3rd down conversions. Against Alabama and Oregon they were 18 for 33 on 3rd down, but then converted something like 4 for 4 on 4th down. So, of the 33 third downs they faced in the CFP, they got first downs on 22 of them. They also scorched MSU on 3rd down.

In 2013 against MSU and Clemson, Ohio State was 3 for 23 on 3rd down with an additional fourth down conversion. Braxton was ineffective when he had to pass and, oddly, they weren't a particularly good short yardage team.

That makes me think of Mariotta, too. When he had to pass, Oregon's offense was completely mundane. He had to have the threat of the run to free up his passing game. Whereas Cardale converted one 3rd and long after another...really, an ungodly amount. It was at such a rate that I have to chalk it up as an outlier.

Also, thanks for the Wisconsin post. Good info.

[Jeff Buchanan]

You've already said something like this but ......

Ezekiel Elliot is a beast. ufm had two great QBs, albeit different as you point out, but the constant is Elliot. He had some ball busting and deflating to the opponent's defense, long runs beside what, nearly 7yards a carry and just short of 2k for the season.

Cardale and JTB were one thing to contend with for the safeties but having to contend with both a pass and run threat that was pretty good is another. Kind of explains osu's ridiculous point total in 2014 and the throttling of both Alabama and Oregon in the CCG.

You'd like to think that kind of performance is sustainable over the long term. Given the last several years under meyer, it also looks like that is entirely possible.

Damn.

[iam416]

I think they averaged more points (barely) in 2013 than in 2014. There are reasons for that, but the larger point is that the 2013 offense was really good, too. The 2013 defense was a train-wreck.

I think UFM is slowly upgrading his offensive talent. He's finally in a really good spot with QBs. RB seems in good shape (really like Samuel). And WR is finally starting to get to "elite" game-breaker stuff, though still not quite. And the H-back is finally game-breaker with Jalin Marshall - his emergence was important for OSU (hell, he single-handedly beat IU...good god).

That's the one thing that I think M is really missing -- the gamebreakers. Fortunately, those types of players can step in early and contribute so if JH can get a few they can start to build elite speed into the offense by Year 2 or 3. But, I really think you need those types of players to get where JH and M fans want to get to. I don't think you can manball/maul your way there. Even Alabama has generally had at least 1 WR that was sick good and could terrorize almost any secondary.

Will be interesting to watch.

[Jeff Buchanan]

..........Will be interesting to watch.

Definately. Not sure JH relies entirely on those kinds of players.

I'd like to think its a combo of skill, smarts and a cogent offense. You look at M post RR, there was never a cogent offense so, whatever skills and smarts were present got squandered.

JH changes that dynamic. The tapes of VaTech V. Stanford in the Orange Bowel.

I don't disagree that M is not going to be able to man-ball it to raise to the level of a solid team, let alone compete at the top. But JH has never been about that. Hokewhoever, were all about that much to M's disadvantage.

For now, I think the skill levels are adequate to produce a dark horse game breaker somewhere on offense or defense in year 1 or 2 ...... With some decent development and coaching.

[iam416]

JH can win without gamebreakers. He arguably did that at Stanford. But if he wants to WIN, I think he'll need them. On both sides of the ball, for that matter.

And I'm not sure they're players that can be developed. We'll see. I'm mostly intrigued by the type of WRs that he brings in. And, to a lesser extent, speed on the edge on defense -- rush ends and hybrid type player that allows you to defend the spread (Darron Lee).

Speed-wise is where I see the M roster really lagging. JH will remedy that, I think, but it will take some time.