M-Borg vs. THE Flavortown U Thread, Orig. by Buckeye Paul, absconded w/by talent.

[iam416]

The above breakdown doesn't look particularly good for the B10. However, the B10 is, at least, comparable to the non-SEC conferences. The SEC is several levels above anyone else. The rest of the conferences though, are very comparable. Still, the B10 has half the conference outside the top 40.

Conf: Top10 -- 20 -- 30 -- 40 (Teams not in top 40)

SEC: 6 -- 9 -- 10 -- 12 (Vandy, Miss St, and Miss St is 41)
P12: 0 -- 3 -- 6 -- 6 (Utah, Col, UW, WSU, Oreg St, Cal)
ACC: 2 -- 3 -- 6 -- 8 (Syr, WF, Duke, GT, Lville, BC)
B12: 0 -- 2 -- 4 --6 (ISU, TCU, KSU, KU)
B10: 1 -- 2 -- 3 -- 7 (Rutgers, Maryland, Iowa, IU, Purdue, Illinois, Goofers)

[iam416]

Hard to see MSU sticking as a top-tier team. If they do, OSU will regret passing on Dirtonio

They won't. They will remain a solid program that plays classic Tresselball and plays it well. And every now and again they'll have a really good team that can challenge for the East. However, I think it is very unlikely they'll win the East much more than once every 5 or 6 years. It also seems unlikely that Narduzzi will be there long-term.

Last season they had a coaching and arguably talent advantage over the league on defense. Ohio State had the same thing on offense. What was the true surprise of the season, IMO, was how MSU's offense developed from unwatchably awful to actually a credible offense. That growth was what made that team really good.

Anywho, I don't look at MSU as a consistent threat to UFM in the East.

[Hannibal]

I think I might actually like MSU to win the East next year, but after that, I suspect they'll have trouble winning it. I expect OSU to win it easily in 2015 and beyond until Penn State is up and running again, which could still take a while. If Hoke stays at Michigan, he'll get a freak year once a decade where a Nate Davis type emerges in a down year for OSU and he sneaks in.

[iam416]

They have a favorable schedule, but they lose a lot.

From OSU's perspective, the question will be how much they drop off in the running game with a new OL and losing Carlos Hyde and how much they can improve on defense. I think both elements were roughly at opposite ends of the bell curve meaning the potential drop off/gain is about even.

TBH, I'm not overly concerned with OSU's offense and I expect the defense to be better for a host of reasons, not the least of which is that "better" is a relative term.

[Hannibal]

I don't see MSU losing anyone where they haven't proven time and time again that they can just reload with another 3* future all-American. On offense, they retain just about everybody important. At this point you should expect the MSU defense to be elite every single year. The only question will be whether the offense is bad enough to drag them down to 7-5 and unfortunately, I'm guessing it won't. It might even be one of the better units in the conference.

[iam416]

You're also selling M short, Hanni. M's offense is in roughly the same boat as OSU's defense. That is, raising the level of play of the M OL to moderately acceptable will translate into huge gains. For OSU, it's the back 7/pass coverage.

Anyway, I look for OSU to routinely be the team to beat in the East. I expect that every year at least one of M, PSU and MSU will have a team on par with OSU. I expect that team to be M more frequently than the others initially. I think Franklin will eventually achieve parity with Hoke and routinely challenge for the title. And I think MSU will also be a pain in the ass game but mostly lack the talent to go through conference play with 1 loss or less, which is what I think it will take to win the East most years.

[iam416]

I don't see MSU losing anyone where they haven't proven time and time again that they can just reload with another 3* future all-American.

Right, but Dennard was merely good as a sophomore. There is no way they don't downgrade at that position next year. I also think losing Bullough is big, too. They can be better up front, but I think overall the LBs and Secondary will take a step back. I'd see their defense as something more like 2011, which was a good defense, but not dominant. And, TBH, good but not dominant is what their defense generally has been. I'll go on record right now and say that I think Oregon will truck them.

I agree that they should have a good offense next year.

[Hannibal]

You're also selling M short, Hanni. M's offense is in roughly the same boat as OSU's defense.

Not really in the same boat. Unlike us, you aren't losing two elite players (Lewan and Gallon) plus a mid-round NFL guy to the draft. Our offense hasn't even hit bottom yet. Also, you fired an incompetent postion coach while we kept ours. I expect the offensive line play to be even worse next year, with maybe slightly better numbers overall thanks to a year of experience for Gardner and a new OC who I am hoping will be a bit better at scheming.

[iam416]

Shazier and Roby could both be 1st round picks and should both go in the top 40. Even if Roby played like an UFA most of the season.

But, I concede no unit was more disappointing in the B10 than M's OL. OSU's pass defense, while generally atrocious, was a distant second.

[Hannibal]

I thought that Roby kind of sucked ass. The thing about our offense is -- it was terrible despite having an elite LT who truly played at an elite level, and a pretty good RT as well. You guys didn't have that one dominant player in the defensive backfield who shut everybody down but was drowned out by complete ineptitude everywhere else.

[Hannibal]

And you guys were also 12-0. We would have to improve by a massive amount relative to OSU to catch up, and I don't even see us improving period.

[Hannibal]

Going into 2014, I get a vibe very much like 2010. Remember that the 2009 defense was a disaster, despite having an unblockable, once-a-decade type freak show on the other side of the ball (Brandon Graham) who singlehandedly kept us in at least a couple of games. Everyone postulated that despite losing him, the defense could not get worse. It did.

[iam416]

Roby was a huge disappointment. Losing Christian Bryant really hurt. Meh, whatever. What's done is done.

WRT M, I think the OL will improve significantly provided Funk is out. If he stays, then I dunno what to say. I think Gallon is probably the biggest loss off the offense. I see zero game-breaking skill players. That, IMO, is a real problem and it's one that, IMO, hasn't been adequately addressed by recruiting, so I think it will linger. Whereas the OL should steadily improve over the next 2-3 seasons, assuming Funk is gone.

[iam416]

Going into 2014, I get a vibe very much like 2010. Remember that the 2009 defense was a disaster, despite having an unblockable, once-a-decade type freak show on the other side of the ball (Brandon Graham) who singlehandedly kept us in at least a couple of games. Everyone postulated that despite losing him, the defense could not get worse. It did.

If Funk stays, this is a very real possibility.

[Hannibal]

I guess I should say that if Funk goes, all bets are off on offense. Doesn't necessarily mean that they will prosper, but at least I won't know what to expect.

I'm not too worried about pass catchers. They finally seem to have figured out how to use Funchess effectively, and I really like Jake Butt. Basically one other guy out of five or six potential candidates has to emerge.