M-Borg vs. THE Flavortown U Thread, Orig. by Buckeye Paul, absconded w/by talent.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Urbz sure did own Jimmy Ballgame’s pasty milk drinking ass, didn’t he?

[Jeff Buchanan]

Old news ...... stop living in the past. It's a new age.

[lineygoblue]

But at least Harbs has staying power.

Urbs can't seem to stay in one place very long.

Maybe he should drink more milk. It builds your body 12 ways!

[THE_WIZARD_]

So does beer.

[Hannibal]

Here is my modestly informed take on the state of OSU football....

I think that the death of MANBALL was announced prematurely. Granted, there was a ton of evidence from 2016 through 2020 with QBs like Tua and Joe Burrow putting up video game numbers in the playoff. OSU seems to have gone all in on the Fun-and-Gun approach -- develop super stud receivers and have your stud 5* QB throw for 400 yards. It worked perfectly against us in 2018 and 2019 and it got OSU to the playoffs multiple times. But UM has adjusted and for the first time since at least the 1990s, they appear to have come up with a form of kryptonite that can beat OSU on defense and contain them on offense. Instead of imitating OSU, we doubled down on MANBALL and the past two years, it has worked wonderfully. From 2004 through 2019, Michigan constantly was throwing paper when OSU was throwing rock. We finally found scissors. And OSU's toughness appears to have decayed as a result of their Fun-and-Gun approach to the game. Their inability to run the ball for extended periods of time this year IMO is OSU's biggest area of concern.

I'm guessing that there has to be some soul searching going on in Columbus this week. How much do they need to change their approach to the game? The past two years, Michigan has had an obvious advantage in the trenches. It looks more systemic than just a bad defensive coordinator, because OSU also had a very spotty, inconsistent running game this year. There is also the factor of "reasonable expectations" for OSU. Is it reasonable to expect that you will never lose two games in a row to your biggest rivalry? Probably not. The 15-1 streak established wildly unrealistic expectations for the rivalry for OSU fans. If you are under 25, all that you know in your life is dominating Michigan -- it was basically an extra Christmas for OSU fans every last Saturday in November. I don't know what reasonable expectations for OSU wins over Michigan are. If Michigan has a good coach, they should beat OSU 3 or 4 times a decade, at least. That includes wins now and then in the Shoe, and even the occasional blowout. Instead of meeting the unreasonable expectations established by Tressel and Urban, Day is at a "reasonable expectations" level -- 11-1 with a loss to UM is still a really good season. I don't know if it's good enough for OSU fans though. I'm not going to boldly predict that the era of 15-1 is finally over, but it might be, and that means that whoever coaches OSU is going to get pantsed on occasion. Should Ryan Day be on the hotseat for it? I don't know. That's for the OSU nation to decide.

Just my opinion. I'm interested to hear DSL and Talent's take on the program.

[iam416]

The State of Ohio State football is this -- Ryan Day will never win a national title. That's what I learned from this week. CRD will out-talent almost every team he plays. He will beat HARBAUGH!!! periodically (hell, he's "2"-2 against M -- yes, I count the white flag year -- there was zero way M wins...but whatever). He'll beat M again. He'll win another B10. Probably multiple B10s, although USC is going to be an issue. However, the game and the B10 will matter less when they go to 12 for the CFP -- and the bottom line is he can't win that. That's the true bottom line.

Each year out from UFM, Ohio State has become less disciplined, less consistent on execution and less "hard." UFM was a total dickhead, but his teams were badass. Of course, he also got boat-raced by awful teams, and CRD won't ever do that. But, UFM beat the bejesus out of HARBAUGH!!!! A lot. And even his immediate legacy team beat the hell out of HARBAUGH!!!.

In Saturday's game, Ohio State should have been up by at least two scores at half. They were not. The third quarter was a self-inflicted disaster with two drives scuttled because of a dubious playcall on 4th and 5 (which, also apprently doubled as bad execution on a would-be fake punt) and then an spectacularly undisciplined play that changed a 1st an 10 at the 50 to a 1st and 35 (negating a 25-yard reception, too) -- it might as well have been a turnover. I mean, it was almost as if they were TRYING to lose. And on the 24-20 drive they committed a dubious/ridculous DPI in the endzone that bailed out M on 3rd and very long. The final two Edwards runs/Stroud turnovers in the last 7 minutes...whatever.

But the game was a synopsis of the team. Good on defense for large swaths of the game except for the occasional blown coverage or disastrous tackling. If you watched Penn State-OSU, that's exactly what you saw. And then, of course, bad penalties. I don't know what the final penalty yardage was, but it felt like a shit-ton. And then poor execution. There were astounding drops -- like, WTF drops. There was a kick rolling inside the the 5 that should have easily been downed. There was the alleged "fake punt". There was the inability to tackle an 8-yd out. There was countless 3rd and longs that OSU let M off the mat from. Hell, even on their first drive of the 2nd half, they had Edwards for what should have been 2-3 -- instead it was 4 and M went for it and got it at their own 35. Little things add up.

Finally, both teams were injured -- but as I've said, Ohio State literally was without their top 3 running backs. Miyan was obviously no healthy. And they were without what some thought was the best WR in CFB coming into the season. And they were missing a OG, too. The RB situation, in particular, is really hard. M still had Edwards, who is legit. One big difference between 2019 and 2021/22 for Ohio State is that JK Dobbins was a badass running back. I mean, he was really good. The 5th string transfer from Arizona State is not. It's not even the same solar system.

So, this is where CRD stands: he's lost 3 regular season games in 4 years. He's played in two CFPs and won two B10s. He was straight up beat by M in 2021 and then, even more tragically, he was a driving force behind the loss to M in 2022. Ohio State fans can live with 2021 -- it happens. They cannot live with a coach that finds ways to lose to a team they should beat, not if it's M. That's a problem. A big problem. And, honestly, the warning signs were sort of there when he lost to Clemson in 2019 -- a game they should have won by 21 or more.

CRD is going to feel real pressure from the fanbase. Maybe the donors, but probably not this year. Certainly not the AD. But, as an OSU fan, you sort of just have to accept that OSU is not going to be elite under CRD. Truly elite. Like beat an SEC team elite. They'll probably lose at M next year b/c McCarthy and Edwards are really good. And then he'll be hanging by a thread.

That's my take. That's my opinion. I have zero interest in debating any of it. And I won't.

[iam416]

BTW, for 2022 -- CRD gets to play at South Bend against a former Buckeye, then at Madison against a former Buckeye and, of course, at M. And throw in a trip to miserable West Lafayette. And Penn State should be really good (IMO), but at least that's at home.

So, 11-1 or whatever will be a real challenge for CRD. It's really going to depend on McCord (or Brown). If he ends up at 9-3 with another loss to M, then I'd bet on him getting fired. And, honestly, if that happens he should. Because the talent he has on his roster is through the roof. The only question is the one position he allegedly coaches well. So, it'll be a very hard 2023, but Ohio State shouldn't be in the business of ever accepting 9-3.

[THE_WIZARD_]

plausible

[Hannibal]

BTW, for 2022 -- CRD gets to play at South Bend against a former Buckeye, then at Madison against a former Buckeye and, of course, at M. And throw in a trip to miserable West Lafayette. And Penn State should be really good (IMO), but at least that's at home.

So, 11-1 or whatever will be a real challenge for CRD. It's really going to depend on McCord (or Brown). If he ends up at 9-3 with another loss to M, then I'd bet on him getting fired. And, honestly, if that happens he should. Because the talent he has on his roster is through the roof. The only question is the one position he allegedly coaches well. So, it'll be a very hard 2023, but Ohio State shouldn't be in the business of ever accepting 9-3.

Does he deeserve to get fired if he goes 9-3 only one time? Even The Nick had a three loss season in his fourth year. Different circumstances, I suppose, but to dominate year after year and end up either 12-0 or 11-1 every time -- is it reasonable to expect that? I don't know. I'm not an OSU fan.

Day did squander a more talented team this weekend. But there has to be some savvy involved with recruiting and developing that talent. OSU's domination of the B1G in recruiting makes Tressel's Ohio recruiting look downright pedestrian. OSU has dominated recruiting so much that Harbaugh doesn't even try to get studs out of Ohio anymore. Now that Michigan appears to have a program, I don't think that you want to go back to the days when UM would consistently pull one or two studs out of Ohio every year. Even RichRod recruited Ohio better than Harbaugh.

Anyways, thanks for the take. I wonder if your AD agrees with your opinion on 9-3. Day is definitely not a bad or mediocre coach. Your trajectory reminds me a little bit of the Gary Moeller era at Michigan. I don't know if Day is your Moeller. 9-3 straddled by 11-1 seasons is still really good IMO, even with all of OSU's built-in program advantages. OSU is definitely the easiest program in the B1G to win at. That makes establishing expectations pretty hard.

[Hannibal]

Talent -- do you think that Day is going to go back to legit dual-threat QBs like Haskins, Miller, and Barrett? What about OL and DL development coaches? Or Strength and Conditioning?

[iam416]

Eh, you're right -- 9-3 will most likely NOT get him fired. But, the last time Ohio State lost 3 regular season games (non-Year of Fickell) was 2004. I mean, the expectations are exceedingly high, but for almost 20 years at least the floor (no more than two losses) has been met.

The other thing I'll grant CRD -- that almost no other OSU fan will -- is that as lucky as he was to follow UFM and inherit a machine, he's been fairly unlucky. He was actually pretty unlucky against Clemson in that Dobbins got hurt in the 2Q and wasn't the same and the officiating took a TD away from OSU that could have easily gone their way. He was unlucky in 2020 in that he had a very good team in the year of COVID and he couldn't properly assess how bad Coombs was in that year. The injuries he dealt with all year in 2022 were annoying, too.

But, all that said, they lost a game they should have, IMO, won. And that will drive OSU fans insane. I didn't feel that way in 2021. Like I said, they just got beat. But on Saturday -- it was infuriatingly bad. And that won't go away for a long time. That's going to dog him until (if) he beats M again.

[iam416]

Talent -- do you think that Day is going to go back to legit dual-threat QBs like Haskins, Miller, and Barrett? What about OL and DL development coaches? Or Strength and Conditioning?

McCord and Brown are not dual-threat. They have Raiola in 2024 -- who is, IMO, the best QB coming out of HS in ages. But, USC is going to come hard at him so they'll have to fight like mad to hold him. But, no. JTB is not walking through that door.

The OL coach is in his first year. I like him. I think he did a solid job. I'd wait until next year to really weigh in on him.

Larry Johnson should probably retire. I don't think he's bad, but at this point I'm not so sure he's good anymore. I definitely think they can upgrade.

I don't have any thoughts on S&C.

[Hannibal]

Do you agree with my take that OSU has perhaps made a long term strategic take by going all-in on the Joe Burrow/Trevor Lawrence approach to offense and downplaying Manball?

[iam416]

So, I think M is built to beat Ohio State. I think Ohio State is built to win the CFP. I think the general approach taken by CRD is right. I think you need to score in CFB. A lot. But, that doesn't mean you can't field a defense that is sound and solid. So, M is nlike any other team OSU is going to play in what they do. So, it's a bit of a connundrum. You can't win the CFP playing "manball" -- I think the 2016 OSU team was a "manball" type team. But, you can't get to the CFP if you can't figure out how to beat M. Heh.

I mean, lemme put it this way -- this year's M team would lose by 4-5 TDs to the 2020 UAT team or the 2019 LSU team. BUT -- those teams -- those elite teams -- rely on elite WR talent. And when you end up with even just really good WR talent it changes things. And then maybe manball works, BUT -- I also think you're going to run into an elite offense sooner or later.

Finally, it's worth noting that Alabama beat Georgia last year. Totally housed them -- in fact, it was more dominant than M was on Saturday. They had Jameson Williams. Georgia couldn't cover him. When they played in the title game, he was hurt. It's a ginormous difference. So, even a team as good as Georgia was absolutely beat down last year -- I mean beat down. And they still won the CFP.

So, -- (a) I think that elite WRs/QBs are the key to winning the national title; and (b) I should probably keep the Georgia loss in mind because that's a national title team that lost by 17.

[Hannibal]

So, I think M is built to beat Ohio State. I think Ohio State is built to win the CFP...

This seems spot on.

Personally, I don't really care if Michigan ever wins a CFP. If we win our first playoff game, that's already playing with house money for us. If Georgia beats us 41-17 in the championship game, I'd still be delighted with the season.