M-Borg vs. THE Flavortown U Thread, Orig. by Buckeye Paul, absconded w/by talent.

[Jeff Buchanan]

as noted by M fan(s), M has effectively contained Reed, Nailor and Dotson (and Toure), so they should be fine against OSU.

And as you noted after I stated Reed and Nailor were first rounders that I certainly couldn't be watching the Big Ten, Froot "liked" your subtle sass and added Nailor is too small and get's injured easily to be much of an NFL prospect let alone a first rounder (admittedly, I did not know this).

Olave, Wilson and Smith-Njigba are to the OSU team as Waddle and Devonte Smith were to Alabama last season. They are all game changers that can win games in a flash. In 2021, OSU has a QB in Stroud that's operating behind an NFL level OL and throwing to the best WR group in CFB with an OC in CRD calling the plays. This is miles different than M throttling MSU's and PSU's passing game. Neither of those two teams have the QBs or the OL to protect them from M's wrecking crew of Ojabo and Hutchinson and nether of them have the play calling acumen of Ryan Day calling plays on the sideline. James Franklin was particularly exploited by M's upstart new DC. That helped in that game.

So, it's really hard for me (or Linesman among others here) to listen to you wallow in self-pity over the misfortunes the OSU football team is going to experience in Ann Arbor. Do I think there is no chance for M to beat OSU? No. around a 49.5 or something close to that chance. I suspect Hannibal will come up with a 100% accurate prediction that M will lose. They could.

This M team, on eyeball check, is probably the best Harbaugh has had that will face OSU behind the coaching of CRD. All the fancy stats give M a slight theoretical advantage (expected because its a home game for M). Everyone, including myself and the fancy stats gave M a projected win over MSU and not by just a little. Instead M lost. I've attributed a large portion of the cause of that loss to variance. Some will disagree. Fine. Who will prevail in Ann Arbor in 11d is very hard to predict. If variance can be reduced, if it is a competently refereed game, M could win but that's asking a whole lot.

[AlabamAlum]

I’ll put it in a nutshell: Michigan is at home. Ohio State has a much better offense. Michigan has a much better defense. And as Coach Bryant used to say, “Offense sells tickets, but defense wins championships.”

M shocks the world!

[lineygoblue]

M hasn't shocked the world since 1969.

OSU has multiple people on offense that could play in the NFL making millions next year. If Stroud was eligible for the draft, he'd be a first rounder. At some point anywhere from 7-10 of the guys on OSU's offense will eventually play in the NFL. M has maybe 3 guys along the OL, a RB, and probably a TE and WR that will be in the NFL when they are eligible. Six, tops. McNamara will never take a snap in the NFL. Too small, weak arm. Big arms make big money in the NFL.

On defense, M has probably 4-6 guys tops that have a shot in the NFL. Both DE's will likely be drafted, as will Ross. Dax will be a low rounder, and maybe 1-2 others could make the late rounds.

Point is, OSU is stocked with talent that will be riding the bench on Saturday, but could start at Michigan. The talent edge will not be easy to overcome.

Is an upset possible? Sure. And Central Michigan will beat Georgia for the NC. Both are equally likely.

[froot loops]

When Gary Barta says, "set aside watching the games." Buchanan says, "Damn straight!"

[iam416]

Ohio State's WRs are really outstanding. No disputing that. In fact, that's why I found Buchanan's initial "analysis" or "commentary" re how it'd be easy to hold them in check to be so interesting. It's the one part of the team that is truly elite. And, for that matter, Henderson is really good, too.

However, if you've watched Ohio State over the course of the season you know that: (a) they've struggled to run at times; and (b) Stroud can be jittery. And these things translate into offensive inefficiences in terms of scoring less than is expected from their yardage output. So, when I say OSU-M will be a total redzone game, I think that both teams will move the ball very effectively between the 20s and that the game will be decided inside the 20.

Also, I think the 2016 M team was better. That year's team had an elite unit. This year's team has two solid units. I know M's defense rates high, but I think they've played two teams with decent offenses and, well, given up 66 points in those two games.

Where I've been really impressed is with Cade's short throws. He's very accurate and M has a great understanding of what they can actually accomplish in the passing game. They are going to methodically carve OSU's shitty pass defense to pieces.

[Hannibal]

Michigan's defense isn't good. We've played a bunch of crap. OSU will easily break 40 on us again. The only thing keeping it under 50 is our tendency to eat clock.

[THE_WIZARD_]

shaddup

[Jeff Buchanan]

Michigan's defense isn't good. We've played a bunch of crap. OSU will easily break 40 on us again. The only thing keeping it under 50 is our tendency to eat clock.

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/opponent-points-per-game

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/opponent-third-down-conversions-per-game

The second link, 3rd down conversions per game allowed is particularly revealing. You have to look at it closely. M is ranked #30, OSU #106 but the actual numbers of 3rd downs allowed between ranked teams is very much. e.g., M is at 4.9/game. OSU is at 6.3. Alos take a look at the differences between 2020 and 2021 in both links above.

The bottom line is that Hannibal's general statement quoted above isn't supported by any kind of meaningful data.

[Jeff Buchanan]

....... also, yesterday, I posted a link to Phil Steel's listing of CFB teams that analyzes a team's wins versus the combined numbers of losses the opponent team had.

I think Hannibal is taking a view point that M hasn't played anybody. That view point is also not supported by the data.

[iam416]

CFB Nerds breaks down stats in terms of percentage of opponents averages. So, going into the PSU game, M had allowed opponents 90% of their average for rushing yards (that's sort of meh) and 84% for passing yards (that's pretty good.). And they don't assess it in terms of yards, but yards per attempt. Penn State was 90 and 83 going into the M game.

Georgia, going into the Tennessee game, was a staggering 56% for rush and a mind-bogglinh 71% for pass.

[iam416]

So, e.g., even though M largely squashed the Penn State running game last week, they probably still only held Penn State to about 95-98% of what was expected because Penn State is so fucking bad on the ground.

[WM Wolverine]

M's defense isn't 'elite', their corners aren't great in coverage. Opposing WR's get plenty of separation but M's yet to really get killed by opposing QB's as M's DE's get so much pressure and M hasn't faced an elite passing offense to really exploit them. Against the run, M is good enough, except when it mattered vs Sparty. Against Sparty, the OLB's, safeties had issues in contain and allowed Walker to turn a few 5-yd rushes into 25+ TD's that allowed Sparty to get back into the game.

[iam416]

M’s scheme is so much more, ummmm, competent. I agree with your assessment, but the corners are helped by a scheme that isn’t specifically designed to amplify their weaknesses.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Stop pandering.

Embarrassing.

[iam416]

The Committee Chair recognizes THE_WIZARD_ solely for the purpose of admonishment and STFUery. So, don't be twatwaffle and STFU.