M-Borg vs. THE Flavortown U Thread, Orig. by Buckeye Paul, absconded w/by talent.

[Hannibal]

I'll say OSU 48, MSU 27. It won't be a total embarrasment for Sparty. Their offense is pretty good. Or at least good enough to exploit a few holes on OSU, but they can't score on every drive, and OSU will shred the hell out of that shitty pass defense.

[froot loops]

Depends if Sparty can get the replay officials to take a TD off the board and hold Buckeye receivers like they did M.

Play the hits!

[iam416]

CFB Nerds Preview of the game: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfTLmz5Khk0

I think they're largely right, For example, they note that "efficiency" rankings -- like FEI -- don't pick up Sparty's explosive plays (and, e.g., overvalues Georgia's offense). They also think that Sparty's defense isn't good enough to force Ohio State into enough "stall" points -- i.e., kick FGs. I think they overvalue Ohio State's defense. I really do. It's not "good." I think the pass defense numbers are way more on point.

Anyway, their model has it at 41-31, and two guys pick it at 44-30 and 52-34. They think the betting play is the over (67) and wouldn't touch Ohio State -20 (that's an absurdly high line). I'm very much in the high scoring camp, and I do think Ohio State will avoid too many stall points, but I really think Sparty scores a bunch, too.

But, look -- if Sparty does force stops of ANY kind -- punt or FG or turnover -- whatever -- then this will be a total dogfight. If Ohio State is scoring TDs in the redzone then Ohio State is going to win by a score or two. If it were Justin Fields at QB, I'd feel supremely confident. As it is, Stroud is still growing. Again -- I think he's going to be really good -- but he isn't there, yet. And the running game is stuttery. Now, Sparty can't match Wilson, Olave and JSN. But if Stroud is a little shaky and they can't run the ball consistently then you're going to see stall points inside the 25. And that will both frustrate the fuck out of me and make it a really close game.

JFC, this season blows.

[froot loops]

I would be shocked if OSU doesn't score in the 40s and MSU has a good offense but it has had about a 40 point ceiling. Not having a kicker might force MSU to go for touchdowns in spots where they would probably just kick the field goal.

The Spartans need a couple turnovers and some sacks to have any chance.

[iam416]

Seems like everyone has roughly the same take. Which means Sparty will win 17-13.

[froot loops]

Exactly. I'm praying for a downpour.

[froot loops]

The one thing that might help the Spartans is they are comfortable playing a shootout. The Spartan pass defense is very bad, so I expect OSU to throw at will, but I'm not sure they can throw it better than Purdue did. The pass defense played a little better against Maryland.

[klondike]

Seems like everyone has roughly the same take. Which means Sparty will win 17-13.

Lol. No Damtonio this time. Sparty will stay with you and make it interesting for a half. Then all he'll breaks loose and Buckey will hang 50+ when it's all over. Oh, no worries about the D'. They may give Sparty 31. But so what..

[Obi-Jon]

The line has 'dropped' to osu being a 19 point favorite. I wonder if that's for the first half or the final score.

[Cody_Russell]

Ohio State passing offense vs MSU pass defense is such an egregiously bad matchup.
Hard not to imagine Ohio State scoring 40+ if the weather isn’t a factor.
Kenneth Walker vs Ohio State rush defense. Appears like Ohio State is playing better there. If for some reason Ohio State returns to their early season struggles… maybe Sparty has a shot.
Ball control and lucky turnovers are the key.

I think Ohio State wins. No poor weather conditions:
Ohio State 45
MSU 29

Rainy tsunami like 2017 MSU vs M:
Ohio State 23
MSU 24

[Dr. Strangelove]

Unlike the first two games, this one's not looking like it could be in doubt down the stretch.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Blowout.

OSU 44 MSU 20

[Hannibal]

Holy shit if this is true lay the points.

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[Jeff Buchanan]

Even if the screen shot you posted wasn't clipped, I have no idea what you're talking about. Who is favored? Are you giving evidence that M is an early 6 point favorite, a 10 point favorite or what?

Caveat, I don't bet or gamble so I don't know shit about it. Regardless, Talent will agree M should be favored by a TD or more and that OSU is vulnerable because the LBs suck or the DBs are bad .... I'm not sure which but obviously if you listen to this twatwaffle babble on about how OSU is going to get ass-jacked by M and believe it, you obviously aren't keeping track of what's going on in the Big Ten.

[iam416]

Ohio State is currently -6 vs M if you can bet it. I’d take the points. As I said on the CFB thread, I think it’s a total redzone game and I have more faith in M’s offense vs OSU’s defense. Now, OSU can negate that with a 4-5 big plays, so who knows. But, as noted by M fan(s), M has effectively contained Reed, Nailor and Dotson (and Toure), so they should be fine against OSU.