M-Borg vs. THE Flavortown U Thread, Orig. by Buckeye Paul, absconded w/by talent.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Mr. Rogers ...... I didn't mean to imply osu got the bad calls last year. All I want to see is consistency in holding, PF and PI calls. That's been a fairly big problem in the BIG this season although it's gotten better as the refs figured out what they all thought should be the indicators for obvious calls. Still a PI infraction can be based on a mystery.

[lineygoblue]

Big Ten officiating has been, and continues to be more bad than good. Lack of hustle, bad spotting of forward progress, lack of consistency as a group, (one crew's PI is another crew's ignore), all this from people who are supposed to be one step away from going to the pros. The cream of the crop.

bah

[iam416]

So, my final thoughts on the Penn State game. It was disappointing in many regards, but, hey, they're Big Ten East champions. No one gave them a shot this year. New, unproven desperate hire coach. New QB who can't read defenses. Defensive coaching staff filled with retreads and a terrible secondary coach from the NFL. HARBAUGH!!!! sitting there with the best coordinator hire in CFB and the most talent in the north of the Mason-Dixon line. They fought and scratched and grinded their way to an East division title. It was a hard slog of a season, but they got there. And there's a lot to be said for that. On the game:

* Penn State came out playing base defense with 2-high concerned with the pass. OSU tore them up on the ground. They eventually moved a safety down into the box and made it much harder to run. OSU continued to plug away into bad numbers. This was disappointing. Ryan Day should be better than that. My only guess is that he didn't think PSU could score enough to win and he wanted to get out of dodge -- out of another weather game -- with a win.

* The first half was utterly frustrating. They had 5 drives. All 5 should/could have been TDs. Obviously, Fields fumbling 6 inches before he scored a TD was bad. On the next drive plug straight down the field and are looking at 3rd and 1 from the PSU 26 but the game's lone holding penalty is called -- and it's a questionable call at best. So it's 2nd and 20. Fields takes a bad sack (more on that), and they end up punting. On the drive right before half, they get exactly what they want -- Olave toasts the PSU CB, but Fields has to side step in the pocket and is half a second late. Olave can't make the great catch. Then Fields takes another horrible sack and they're out of FG range. A half that felt more like 24-0 ends 14-0 and PSU still has life.

* Ohio State starts the 2nd half where they left off. Straight down the field for at TD. 21-0. Game feels like it's over. If they can stop Penn State's next drive the route is surely on. Instead, PSU mounts their only really good drive of game. It's aided by a play where Clifford drops the snap, manages to pick it up and sling it to an open TE for a 1st. He gets hurt and the backup QB comes in and PSU's offense changes to essentially a single T. OSU spends 3 drives adapting.

* After 6 drives of moving the ball at will, OSU commits two straight TOs. The second was so close that however it was ruled on the field, it was going to stand. PSU uses those TOs to score 10 points.

* Now it's a game. OSU puts together a small drive. They get out to midfield and on 3rd and 4 run Dobbins for 2. They punt, pin PSU deep and the defense answers with pressure out the ass. OSU gets the ball back in PSU territory and puts together a TD drive. 28-17. At that point the game really is over. PSU moves a little bit but throws an interception. OSU is then in clock mode and gets a couple first downs and punts. Meh.

* 7 times the ball hit the ground. Penn State recovered the first 6. The 7th was a Fields fumble on 4th down that was meaningless -- the play where he hurt is ankle. 6 for 6.

* Ohio State missed 3 interception opportunities. The first was Jordan Fuller and I'm not hard on that -- Freiermuth made a good play to sort of break it up. The 2nd, Werner undercut a short out and should have made the play. The 3rd, Shaun Wade wasn't even looking or looked to late and it went zipping through his hands to the WR who caught it. You could say that in terms of TO opportunities, Penn State basically batted 1.000 -- if it's 50/50 then it's not as close.

* Fields will take bad sacks. He's done it all year and he's took two very bad sacks against Penn State. That's the bad. The good is he can turn a 3rd and 12 into a first down with his legs. OSU's first TD drive was aided by Fields scrambles.

* The OL is not pass protecting well at all. Thayer Munford is getting whipped and he should be their best OL. He's dealing with a back injury and I just don't think he has it. If they give Fields a clean pocket at the end of the 1st half they get a TD to Olave. The interior of the OL is playing really well, at least run blocking.

* OSU is way more outside and vertical in their passing game than they were last year. Fields has an NFL arm. Easy. He can make all the throws. They still run crossing routes and such, but mesh isn't their crutch.

* Defensively, Penn State just couldn't really do much to challenge them until then went full-on power QB run. They were able to outnumber OSU in the box and get yards on the ground. But, they really didn't have much they could go to in the passing game. Shaun Wade handled Hamler. Peter fucking Werner kept Freiermuth in check. I mean, they could get 6 yards with him, but that was about it.

So, no need to throw out the baby with bathwater after a disappointing game, at least in the way it played out. I do think it's good that they were punched in the mouth and had to play 4 quarters. They're no where close to invincible and, in fact, easily beatable. If they are, at any point in the game, -3 to M in TOs they will get BLOWN OUT. And I wouldn't be surprised if they get multiple interceptions from Fields or, alternatively, force multiple coverage sacks. Don Brown is going to confuse the shit out of him and he's not gonna have much time to make a decision. The only way OSU moves the ball is if they can establish Dobbins and force M to play and extra half man/full man in the box. M's offense does so many challenging things that I don't see OSU slowing them down much. And no one has an answer for Nico Collins. So, it doesn't look good for OSU.

[lineygoblue]

[Jeff Buchanan]

.........Don Brown is going to confuse the shit out of him and he's not gonna have much time to make a decision. The only way OSU moves the ball is if they can establish Dobbins and force M to play and extra half man/full man in the box. M's offense does so many challenging things that I don't see OSU slowing them down much. And no one has an answer for Nico Collins. So, it doesn't look good for OSU.

Really good debrief.

The bolded line is exactly why I said (against M) this is dobbins game to win or lose.... of course the retort from the M fan base was, no, the game will be on fields. To a certain extent it is at least he has to not allow himself to think the game is on his shoulders and he has to make THAT play. From what I gather, he is entirely capable of getting in to that mode and making mistakes because of it.......I've seen Patterson do incredibly dumb things trying to save a play. If dobbins can run the ball, force Brown into committing a S or multiple LBs to cover the gaps that dobbins is hammering, it's going to change the complexion of the game in osu's favor.

OTH, if Brown gets his DEs to do what they've been doing, make plays on dobbins or master teague (only 2 caries v. PSU???) with the LBs cleaning up in front of the doubles back-end coverage Brown has specialized in this season, the complexion shifts in favor of M. More specifically, can Brown make it hard for fields to connect with k.j. hill or chris olave? Can the offense capitalize if the D boots osu off the field on the regular. Well, I doubted Patterson would continue to be brilliant on the road and his receivers ball. He did and they did and I said if he does and his receivers make the catches that that would portend good things for M's offense.

Both teams should be playing lose and having fun ...... osu has clinched the BTE and M seems to be on a good run. Weather looks like it is going to be bad and may be a factor for whom is TBD.

The other wild card is day. What's his game plan? Will he try to protect fields from the inevitable bad throw or bad sack he's going to make or take? I don't know day well enough to say but, we know what M's offense looked like when Harbaugh was insistent on protecting Shea and what it has looked like in the last 10 quarters of play when he finally didn't. An interesting sub-plot that.

[iam416]

[Jeff Buchanan]

Just looking at osu's OL, the interior has looked good, tackles not so much. Favors inside runs. M has been really good managing the edges or at least mitigating big plays there. I've not payed any attention to TE and WR blocking on jets or OZ but man, osu's got some speedy folks that can get the edge. Then they have to deal with CBs Hill, Thomas and Metellus, Dax Hill at S that have also played well. I don't know if S Brad Hawkins is out for this game. Dax Hill is a bit light to take on dobbins ......hopefully , as you say, Dax isn't seeing dobbins in his grill because Brown is handling him with 7 jamming up the LOS ..... noteworthy that M's 2019 stats don't show many TFLs. But they still manage to keep total rushing yards in the low 100s or better. I've liked this workman approach better than the flashy stuff that characterized the 2018 DL with Hudson/Bush, Gary and Winovich

[iam416]

Right. OSU won't run against M which means they won't pass against M. Sooner or later you're going to get to where I am.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Getting to "where you are" is a really difficult thing for me to do.

I'm at a place where a loss won't hurt me. Start thinking M can win and I just set myself up for a miserable winter of despair for Michigan football.

The immediate concern for Saturday is now the weather. Word has it that all of the U's lots will be closed except to pass holders and now, the lot we typically park in (Lindy's), won't be open because it was cumulatively badly damaged during the rains of ND and MSU. Sucks. We may be tailgating in Sean's garage and riding shuttles from outlying parking back and forth to the stadium. My question is becoming, why not just watch on TV? But, OTH, this could be historic. I was there in '69. So that should tell you what's going on in my head about this game!

[lineygoblue]

I'm at a place where a loss won't hurt me. Start thinking M can win and I just set myself up for a miserable winter of despair for Michigan football.

That's absolutely the best place to be.

[iam416]

[Jeff Buchanan]

In more encouraging news ....... several us have a lot riding on what kind of misery we will have to endure for our pre and post game tailgate and then in the stadium. So, I've been watching this like a hawk. There is a possibility that temps will be cold enough for the light snow flurries that are forecast for the pregame time frame, will continue into mid afternoon. Timing of when and if light snow turns to freezing rain v. sleet v. rain is still uncertain. One of the forecast models has the H in central Canada moving eastward more slowly. That tends to lock in the colder air in SE MI. There's going to be moisture, in what form remains a mystery as none of the models are consistent. As usual, it's a tough forecast for SE MI. I can stand cold. I know how to dress for that. Cold and wet is another thing though I'm prepared for that too. Playing in conditions like that makes for maddening uncertainty play to play and discomfort for the players.

[hack]

Just because Michigan is no longer completely and totally wasting Collins' collegiate career doesn't mean they've weaponized him, or that they can protect Patterson sufficiently in a big game.

If the weather is a factor, that is always harder for the team that relies on its passing game, and easier for the team that lives on the ground.

[iam416]

I dunno. 200 yards seems weaponized. I agree that Collins play is unrelated to OL play.

[hack]

Let's see it happen for a full game against a truly good team. I do recognize that we're one Ronnie Bell catch and a handful of other plays away from this being a lot more of an interesting discussion.