M-Borg vs. THE Flavortown U Thread, Orig. by Buckeye Paul, absconded w/by talent.

[Pasadena Blue]

Speight's suckitude kept the Wisky game close. All the focus is on our lousy FG unit, but Speight's failure to turn those FG attempts to TD's should deserve attention.

I get the JH believes that with a good defense, its better to have a game manager QB who doesn't turn it over, but that's not going to get it done against O-state.
I don's agree with Jeff that Urbz will have so much trouble with Wisky's D. I don't think Biegel will be back by then, correct?


With regards to the "Game," with O'korn I think we have a chance, but with Speight I don't see the Bucks having much trouble with us.
Yes our D has looked good on many occasions, and yes having Glasgow (hopefully) for O-state will make some difference --- but overall seeing UCF get to the edge on us in the rushing game, and seeing Colorado slice us up on quick crosses in the middle (due to substandard LB and Safety play), gives me little optimism that our D will do much better against an experienced QB and potent O-state offense.

[Pasadena Blue]

I am thinking by kick-off, Bucks will be double digit road favorites over Wisky.

http://www.landgrantholyland.com/2016/10/9/13218454/wisconsin-ohio-state-2016-football-odds-line-spread-betting

[iam416]

IOW, it makes no difference statistically (osu's probability of winning the East Crown does not change) if Wisky beat your guys if that's any relief to you.

Yeah, I posted on another thread that OSU (and M) can both lose 1 game provided they win the rest and win "The Game". 12-1 with a win in The Game and the B10 CG is automatically in the CFP, IMO.

One quick point -- I'll post more later/tomorrow morning -- but IU isn't that good on offense. OSU's defensive line ate them alive. And IU does a lot of really quick plays to keep substitutions down. They caught them on maybe 2 or 3 plays with passes. I really don't see IU running the ball at all against M.

[Pasadena Blue]

did you watch IU vs M last year?

[iam416]

Yes. Have you watched them this year? Jordan Howard was a beast. Redding is good, but not close to Howard, IMO.

[Pasadena Blue]

thought Redding was pretty good and more importantly IU's defense is better. Anyways we'll see on November 19th.

[iam416]

Oh, yeah. I thought you were just talking about their offense. I think their offense is not as good as it's been under Wilson. The defense is better. I'd say it's competent now. Overall, they may be a slightly improved team.

[iam416]

Jeff:

(1) OSU has occasionally had bad passing games with JTB. I wouldn't call it a trend, but it's a possibility. JTB is usually good. He's had far more good games than games where he is off.

(2) The WRs, however, aren't where they need to be. Noah Brown is really good, but he's more a possession guy. Samuel is always a huge threat, but they need at least 1 more guy to step up and give them really good WR play. Right now they're rotating a ton of people through and getting choppy play. Two seasons ago, Devin Smith stretched the defense and was awesome. Last season, Thomas was really good, though more of a possession guy, but they also had Marshall and Samuel. This season -- they need someone. Austin Mack will be really, really good, but he's not there, yet.

(3) They don't quite have the explosiveness on offense. Samuel is it. And he's really good -- he needs way more touches than he got against IU. Weber keeps getting better, but right now he's "semi-explosive." He can turn 5 into 20, but he can't turn 5 into 50. Very few backs can. Elliot was a gem and is showing it in the NFL.

(4) OL run blocking has been really good. Pass blocking is pretty good. I feel good about the OL.

(5) Love the defense.

If I had to pick a score right now between OSU/M, I'd be far more inclined to say something like 20-17. I don't think OSU will continue it's streak of 42, heh...nor do I think M will rack up points. I think M's secondary can make it hard on OSU's WRs and as long as Samuel is accounted for they can avoid mismatches. I think the line play will be pretty even, so I think it's tough sledding for OSU on offense. Conversely, I don't think M's OL will do a lot against OSU's DL/LBs. I think Speight will have some openings here and there, but they'll require good throws.

That's my take as of October 10. Much can and surely will change.

[Hannibal]

I'm not surprised that Indiana made that one kind of ugly. Their defense is vastly improved, which means that they can beat you scoring 34-38 points this year, unlike previous years. Their offense is still great at moving the ball but they have problems with turnovers and finishing drives, two problems that are very fixable and that I hope does not come back to bite us when they do.

[Jeff Buchanan]

talent ..... great input. I think most of us have been feeling that jtb has to have a tough time of it v. M's D and Speight has to have his best game overall for M to win. Your input, as I read it, although I might just be repeating what resonates with me, pretty much puts it on the shoulders of the two QBs to win The Game, all other things remaining as they are (OL play, play of the D, etc.).

.......Their offense is still great at moving the ball but they have problems with turnovers and finishing drives, two problems that are very fixable and that I hope does not come back to bite us when they do.

Without a power run game, spready offenses in general have this problem. IU is no particular exception to what I think is a rule. Lagow/Redding is not as good as Sudefeld/Howard in delivering that power run game.

osu's D is very good up front. IU didn't neutralize any of that. Probably just average OL play and two dudes, Lagow and Redding who just are not explosive enough to do that.

I think Kevin Wilson knows exactly what IU needs to contend - talent up front - and he's going to have a really hard time getting it.

[iam416]

Yeah, it's close enough, IMO, that QB play can be determinative. I think OSU, at this stage, has a better run game and M has better receiving threats. So, for the first thing, M can largely negate that w/ great DL play. If they have to sell out to stop the run, then I think OSU gets much better options in the passing game. If they can neutralize the run with DL, then it's going to be really hard for OSU. For the second thing, it requires Speight to be good. I don't think you'll see Butt running uncovered on crossing routes all day. He'll have windows to throw, but they'll be relatively tight.

[hack]

I am looking forward to seeing OSU's offense vs Wisconsin. For now it feels to me like for Michgan to win it will require some great throws by Speight or some fancy stuff. Trickery, or lots of Peppers out of the backfield.

[iam416]

I think you over value OSU's offense. We'll see how they do in Madison.

[WingsFan]

OSU 9 point favorite at the moment, tough game to pick - UFM probably covers

[iam416]

It's 10' and even 11 in one shop.