M-Borg vs. THE Flavortown U Thread, Orig. by Buckeye Paul, absconded w/by talent.

[Jeff Buchanan]

So, I guess Lindsey and Grimes decided to commit together. Eh, whatever. Good day for WR recruiting for OSU. That gives them 5 top 25 players, 6 5* players, 8 top 50 players and 11 top 75 players. The current 247 Composite number is 302.31.

A brief glimmer of hope in THE SHADOW.

So, all of you with this thing about M's players with "experience" elevating the team's chances to do something big in 2016, take note of what's happening down south. It's called building depth and were not talking about the typical second stringer here ...... those numbers are impressive. It's been going on for what, four years now?

That's what it takes to be elite. osu/ufm does this kind of thing, so does Alabama/Saban. M/JH aren't close to that yet. We can like HARBAUGH'S recruiting antics - they seem to be liked by recruits, make them take notice. But M isn't at an elite recruiting or current player level yet. M might get to the elite level in recruiting and have elite depth like osu and Bama but until it does talking about playoffs and NCs for M is nonsense.

What gets me is that ufm has done this every place he has been and in c-bus, he is overcoming the shitty winter weather, the flaming Cuyahoga River and ohio in general. Why? He wins and does it consistently. M has spent the last decade (with the exception of 2 years) losing, embarrassing itself on the field and generally being the laughing stock of CFB (RR's crying, Hokes hand clapping, no head set style). That doesn't get turned around quickly or when it does, its' an outlier example.

Still hoping HARBAUGH!!! is an outlier but some M fans, mostly looking through Maze and Blue colored glasses, need to realize talent and hard data with demonstrable predictive value, not hope, grit, toughness, great player development, forward looking NFL draft predictions or any of that soft sell shit people love to throw around as reasons for M being elite/winning big, is the primary reason CFB teams consistently win championships.

Sorry for being a "little bitch."

On second thought, no I'm not.

[Mike]

Alabama's 4 year recruiting before Saban took over resulted in the 41, 30, 21, 15 ranked classes in the country. In his second year Bama started 12-0 before losing to the Tebows, then won a natty in year 3.

Hoke actually recruited quite well. Harbaugh is inheriting more talent than Saban did.

I want results and I want them right fucking now.

[iam416]

What gets me is that ufm has done this every place he has been and in c-bus, he is overcoming the shitty winter weather, the flaming Cuyahoga River and ohio in general. Why? He wins and does it consistently.

Ohio State (and M, for that matter) are destination, huge draw landing spots for recruits. Otherwise I more or less agree with you. Over the long-term you won't be elite without elite recruiting.

Alabama is the platinum standard. If you look at their 2013 and 2014 classes, there is no surprise as to why they're so good. Oh, and their 2015 and 2016 classes were outstanding, too -- just not quite as great.

Ohio State had a great 2013 class, but was a little off in 2014 and 2015. I really like the 2016 class and this year's class is historically great by OSU standards. I'm very optimistic about 2018, too -- I think they can put something together that is comparable to 2017. Then, when you have the 2016-18 classes stacked -- THEN you're really, really dealing.

But, so, yeah -- from 2014-16 Ohio State added 2 5* kids and 47 4* kids. They have another 6 and 10 in 2017. I think 2018 could be something like 4 and 14.

So even as between Alabama and OSU, you can see the difference. Alabama stacks year after year where they get multiple 5* players. OSU hasn't been getting the 5* kids in those types of numbers. Some really high 4* kids, but not quite 5*. The thing, IMO, that has held Bama back...LMAO...just a little is QB play/development. UFM really bombed out with QBs in 14/15, so getting Haskins (16), Martel (17) and Emory Jones (18) is really great to have lined up.

Anyway, long-term, HARBAUGH!!! needs to be in this discussion if you want to be a consistent threat to win the CFP. That's why I very sincerely think that M can win the B10 (and is my pick by a nose), but will struggle in the CFP. It's a different ballgame.

[The Oracle]

So, all of you with this thing about M's players with "experience" elevating the team's chances to do something big in 2016, take note of what's happening down south. It's called building depth and were not talking about the typical second stringer here ...... those numbers are impressive. It's been going on for what, four years now?

That's what it takes to be elite. osu/ufm does this kind of thing, so does Alabama/Saban. M/JH aren't close to that yet. We can like HARBAUGH'S recruiting antics - they seem to be liked by recruits, make them take notice. But M isn't at an elite recruiting or current player level yet. M might get to the elite level in recruiting and have elite depth like osu and Bama but until it does talking about playoffs and NCs for M is nonsense.

What gets me is that ufm has done this every place he has been and in c-bus, he is overcoming the shitty winter weather, the flaming Cuyahoga River and ohio in general. Why? He wins and does it consistently. M has spent the last decade (with the exception of 2 years) losing, embarrassing itself on the field and generally being the laughing stock of CFB (RR's crying, Hokes hand clapping, no head set style). That doesn't get turned around quickly or when it does, its' an outlier example.

Still hoping HARBAUGH!!! is an outlier but some M fans, mostly looking through Maze and Blue colored glasses, need to realize talent and hard data with demonstrable predictive value, not hope, grit, toughness, great player development, forward looking NFL draft predictions or any of that soft sell shit people love to throw around as reasons for M being elite/winning big, is the primary reason CFB teams consistently win championships.

Sorry for being a "little bitch."

On second thought, no I'm not.

So, basically, we all just need to STFU until we actually win.

Got it guys? STFU!!!

[Jeff Buchanan]

So, basically, we all just need to STFU until we actually win.

Got it guys? STFU!!!

No, just don't post stupid shit that is easily assailable.

[The Oracle]

Such as what? Saying we have more experienced returning talent that will get drafted next year than anyone else in the conference?

[Jeff Buchanan]

No, of course not ...... but what many put up on this board with regard to predicting M's success in 2016 is fanciful opinions not based on hard data. We have good data from 2015. It's not THAT good for M in terms of predicting wins in excess of 10. Moreover, while experience (returning starters) does impact wins, it is not the kind of slam dunk predictor that some think it is (see link below).

This is taken from a research piece that looked at what contributes to winning football games. It goes beyond FEI and can be used in conjunciton with other measures to come up with predictions that are based on facts not opinions:

I've come to realize that the sport comes down to five basic things, four of which you can mostly control. You make more big plays than your opponent, you stay on schedule, you tilt the field, you finish drives, and you fall on the ball. Explosiveness, efficiency, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers are the five factors to winning football games.

If you win the explosiveness battle (using PPP), you win 86 percent of the time.

If you win the efficiency battle (using Success Rate), you win 83 percent of the time.

If you win the drive-finishing battle (using points per trip inside the 40), you win 75 percent of the time.

If you win the field position battle (using average starting field position), you win 72 percent of the time.

If you win the turnover battle (using turnover margin), you win 73 percent of the time.

This is from 2013 college football game data. It's very, very similar from year to year.

Here's a link to a piece discussing how returning starters by position and overall affect wins.

http://cfbmatrix.com/special-features/4966-2/think-you-have-returning-starters-impact-solved-dont-bet-on-it/

The bottom line is not much unless you are returning 16 or more. If I have it right, M has 14 returning starters. I've not seen anything about returning players in general so, I can't speak to the impact of that in objective terms. But, starters? Yes.

http://cfbmatrix.com/special-features/4966-2/think-you-have-returning-starters-impact-solved-dont-bet-on-it/

So, yeah ..... people can post anything they want here. Back opinions up with facts/data and they won't get pimped. The data I was able to dig up just doesn't support the opinion that player experience and/or development has the kind of predictive value many are suggesting it does. Neither does last years (2015) performance alone have strong predictive value unless there are other factors present (yes, Mike, I'm DOING the math). Recruiting, however, has a very strong predictive value for wins and there is one team that has better recruiting in the BIG than M and it's osu. That is going to be tough road win if players fill in as has been the history of osu under ufm.

Based on the facts and the data, M has a low probability of exceeding it's 10 win total from 2015. M doesn't have the talent to produce explosive plays or be as efficient on offense that it needs to be to finish drives and score. Could it happen? Of course it could because of HARBAUGH!!! but the chances are slim and if it is because of HARBAUGH!!! from the data, that outcome is an outlier.

[The Oracle]

Okay, how is a returning starter determined? On offense, Smith, Chesson, Darboh, Butt, Poggi(started 4 games), Magnuson, Kalis, Cole, Braden, Allen. Of defense, Wormley, Glasgow, Hurst(4 starts), Charlton, Peppers, Lewis, Hill, Thomas(7 starts).

That's 18 guys coming back who have started at some point in their career. Not counting Mone who started a game or 2 his freshman year.

Even all the stat based sites out there have skewed data.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Fair point.

If you look at it based on your list, yes, 18 returning starters breaks the threshold of 16 returnees that does predict a higher win total for M in 2016.

That's data to support your opinion.

I think there is some data in the link I provided on returning starters that dealt with the importance of a returning QB. If I recall, it is the one position that most improves the probability of wins when that guy is returning.

Don't know how this plays but it seems logical that with M not having a returning starter at QB, by the numbers, that might neutralize any gains for returns in other positions.

I'm sticking with a lean toward 10. I don't think the numbers suggest M is going to win in c-bus, IF, big IF, the new guys fill in as they have done in the past with ufm coached teams at osu. I'll defer to talent on that IF. That's one loss.

M is going to lose 1, probably 2 of osu, MSU or Iowa on the road unless HARBAUGH!!! and I won't rule that out.

JH's team 137 HAS to, just has to, win in EL this season.

[The Oracle]

So it sounds like you're leaning toward 10 wins. I lean towards 11. Not too far off.

[The Oracle]

And a big "suck it" to Talent for us hi-jacking this thread.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Fair's fair. OSU fans hijacked Michigan Stadium last fall.

[Ghengis Jon]

No shit. That was the worst I'd ever seen.

[Mike]

You want data points, Jeff?!?! HARBAUGH!! There's my fuckin' data point.

I believe the ball is in your court, sir.

[The Oracle]

Uh oh. That makes you, I believe, a Maize Blue and Rose colored fucking homer of the utmost magnitude.