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Trump whining that they're stealing Pennsylvania, making up bullshit about ballot harvesting, suing Bucks County over long lines...these are not things you do when confident of victory. Stop giving me hope, dammit
Very surprised. And no explanation either side. There are people who have documented proof they are citizens that got caught up in the sweep.
Virginia has same day voter registration so they can still vote if they want to. But those who are not U.S. citizens cannot which begs the question: Why are there non-citizens on the voter rolls?
Trump whining that they're stealing Pennsylvania, making up bullshit about ballot harvesting, suing Bucks County over long lines...these are not things you do when confident of victory. Stop giving me hope, dammit
Very surprised. And no explanation either side. There are people who have documented proof they are citizens that got caught up in the sweep.
Nonsense. These were all persons who said they were not citizens when they applied for voter registration (most while at the DMV). This was not a "sweep" in any sense.
The real SC case is the Pennsylvania SC rewriting the law to allow votes to be counted if they arrive 3 days late. This applies to mail-in ballots that are spoiled.
I hope SCOTUS makes a determination that only US citizens can vote in federal elections. That is the law now, but CA and NY and many other Progressive states let non-citizens vote in federal elections.
CA and NY and many other Progressive states let non-citizens vote in federal elections.
This is not true. Non-citizens can vote in local elections in a few cities across the country. That's it. No state allows them to vote in state elections and no state can overule the federal laws preventing them from voting in federal elections.
While federal law does not prohibit noncitizens from casting a ballot in state or local elections, no state currently allows noncitizens to vote in statewide elections. Three states and Washington, DC, have municipalities that allow noncitizens to vote in certain local elections. San Francisco allows resident noncitizen parents and guardians to vote in school board elections. Oakland is currently attempting to enact a similar law. Some cities in Maryland and Vermont permit noncitizens to vote in municipal elections. New York City enacted a law allowing noncitizens to vote in local elections in 2021, but it was ruled unconstitutional by a state judge in 2022. Washington, DC, recently enacted a law to allow noncitizen residents to vote in all non-federal elections.
There are some big outliers, IMO. There's no way Harris is up 5 and 6 points in Michigan and Wisconsin. Quinnipiac in late September had her up 5 in Michigan, then two weeks later it was Trump +4, now it's back to Harris +5. There was no 9 point swing back and forth in the last month of the campaign.
Hannibal mentioned upthread that it really comes down to whether or not the pollsters adjusted their models to compensate for the massive failures the last two cycles. 538 was off in Wisconsin by 8(!) points in 2020 and by about 5 or so in all the other highly contested states. If their forecast is off 1 or 2 points in favor of the Ds this time around, it's gonna be a landslide for Trump.
In 2020 they had Biden at 89/100 in their final forecast with the key swing states at about the same probability. The election came down to PA and GA with the latter being decided by some 9,000 votes. As of today, they have Trump 52/100 (it was 55 a few days ago). Similar extrapolations can be made with RCP's numbers.
PA is the most important state this cycle and will decide the winner, IMO. That's why Trump is gonna make that his Alamo.
The polls were actually farther off in 2020 than in 2016 but because they ultimately picked the right person (Biden) people don't remember them as being so bad.
The polls were almost as bad in the 2022 midterms. What's hard to know is if that's because they overcorrected too far in the Republican direction. The RCP average for the New Hampshire Senate race (for example) had Maggie Hassan up just 1.4 points and several polls had Don Bolduc winning. She won by over 9 points.
Will the RFK wrinkle matter in Michigan and Wisconsin? Most of the polling reduces it to a two-way race and I think he clearly takes more votes away from Trump than Harris. Two percent of the vote in Wisconsin could be around 70,000 votes, way bigger than the 2020 margin was.
Were Trump and Harris right next to each other on your ballot? On mine Trump was at the top, then some independent I'd never heard of, then Harris.
EDIT: Also, nothing wrong about it just a little odd, but right after the Presidential race the next three on my ballot were all Ohio Supreme Court seats. Not the US Senate race or my House Rep. I don't remember state races appearing ahead of federal ones in the past but maybe it's happened.
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