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Seems to me that even Chairman Joe had a 5-6 point lead, as recently as January. At one time, Giggles was leading nationwide by that same margin.
Trump is making up ground somwhere.
He's retaken some ground since Harris' peak. He's overall lost ground since Biden dropped out. Here's the RCP average of those 7 states when Biden quit
Very fast denial. Don’t expect SCOTUS to side with Virginia either. If you can find evidence to disqualify individual voters, fine, but you can’t do a mass scrubbing based on “suspicions” within 90 days of a federal election. Period.
From what I read this guy is a regular on Comedy Central’s roasts and specializes in racial humor and dropping ethnic slurs for gasps. Which is all fine when heading into a roast where nothing’s off-limits. Not sure roast comedy works well as part of a political rally.
538 has Trump +9 in it's prediction model. That's the biggest spread I've seen yet. That Fascism Hitler Nazi really at MSG must have had the desired effect.
Harris +12 in Nebraska's 2nd district. They didn't ask about the House race but if that number's accurate then Don Bacon (R) is probably toast. Trying to take away Omaha's electoral importance probably backfired.
Deb Fischer (R) also in serious trouble against Independent Dan Osborn, an interesting wrinkle in the fight for the Senate.
538 has also put NC into the "Leans R" category. Trump up to 262 EVs in the non "toss up" states. Nevada is only 6 EVs so that won't get him over the top. He needs to pick off one of the blue wall states to win. Caveat being the 538 projections come to fruition in Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina.
7:00
Virginia
Georgia
Florida (most)
South Carolina
Vermont
7:30
North Carolina
Ohio
West Virginia
After that 20+ states fully or partially close at 8:00, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Texas, and New Hampshire. Wisconsin & Arizona not till 9 PM. 10 pm for Nevada
Harris will win DC and California.
Trump will win Mississippi and Indiana.
Lock it in on your projection map.
…
Stupid jokes aside…
North Carolina will probably be the first big state to be called, right? If Georgia actually comes down to a percentage point, we know how long that took to figure out in 2020…
Assuming Florida is now a red state and not a purple state, that is. Seems to be the case. Ds made up for it by making Colorado a solid blue state.
The comparisons with 2016 and 2020 show that Donald is way ahead in polling compared to those two years. And since he blew away expectations in swing states those years, everyone kind of just extrapolates that same pattern and assumes that Trump will do the same thing this time and win easily.
What I’d like to see and haven’t seen is any analysis on whether pollsters have adjusted their methodologies to more accurately predict Trump’s performance in places like Michigan and Wisconsin. If they have done that then that past overperformance has already been baked into the numbers.
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