Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[crashcourse]

Also I am BEGGING people to get it through their pinheads that when a news network says "92% reported" it does not mean "92% of the total vote has been counted". It means 92% of the precincts across the state have finished counting. Precincts are NOT ALL THE SAME SIZE and it's the bigger ones that usually take longer.

If you listen to Raffenberger he says 98% of the vote is in. He also says they have set a record of 4.7 million voters. They also have the voting totals up on the screen which you see trump up by 104K. Vote count is 2383312 Trump and 2286078 biden Total of 4.6 million votes tabulated 98% of the vote raffenberger referenced. There were only 90K votes left to count. And yet more votes magically appeared unbeknowst to raffenberger obviously. 92% of precincts means nothing--those 92% of precincts already counted made up the 98 % of the total vote. Get it?

[Cody_Russell]

Early voting started today in my area and I did what’s important… VOTED. Stood in line with my dad for an hour and 45 minutes. One of the poll workers mentioned THOUSANDS (of votes) and it’s only been 5 hours since it started. Glad to have it over with. Feels great.

People are getting their early votes in. Ultimately what matters is vote. Regardless of who you are voting for… and I wrote it “Jared Goff” for a few of the lesser important local positions when there was only one candidate to choose from.

[Tom W]

Slotkin is also running ads touting her ability to work with Trump. He signed one of the bills she sponsored!

Probably much ado about nothing... but it's something.

The astounding thing about Slotkin is just how well funded her campaigns have been. It's not like she's from a particularly wealthy district.

Still, it's nowhere near enough for me to ever vote for her, but it sure could pay off a lot of student loans..

[Dr. Strangelove]

I repeat the comment I made in here almost 3 years ago. If Donald Trump wins the Presidency in '24, it will be the Democrats' fault for not putting a better candidate up against him.

We all knew he was going to run again. That was a given. It was up to the Democrats to make this country run so well in the meantime, that even Trump supporters would be awed by the work they did.

Instead, we get Giggles as the alternative to Trump.

If Trump wins, its on you, Dems.

Oh bullshit. if Trump wins it's on the people who vote for him. Period. Have some goddamn personal accountability. You had a choice and you chose Trump. The Dems didn't make you do it. You chose it.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Early voting and mail-in voting is going to look a lot different this year from 2020 but the Dems are underperforming pretty badly right now in Nevada. They have a lot of ground to make up before Election Day.

Nevada is the only state where I trust the early voting numbers to be predictive and Jon Ralston knows what he's talking about. You can get daily updates below.

The early voting blog, 2024 - The Nevada Independent

[Mike]

Oh bullshit. if Trump wins it's on the people who vote for him. Period. Have some goddamn personal accountability. You had a choice and you chose Trump. The Dems didn't make you do it. You chose it.

Well, they could have had a real primary and nominated a viable candidate but they chose to circumvent our democratic process. If that bites them in the ass, it IS the D's fault, 100%.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Well, they could have had a real primary and nominated a viable candidate but they chose to circumvent our democratic process. If that bites them in the ass, it IS the D's fault, 100%.

Anyone who votes for Trump has agency and personal accountability. Buzz off with this crap that the Dems are responsible for anything bad done by either political party. Republican primary voters overwhelmingly wanted their beloved senile game show host to come back for a 3rd bite at the apple. Deal with it. He's your boy. Yours. Not mine. You're voting for him. Not me. No one's forcing you to do anything. You have free will.

[Mike]

This day in polling:

A new Atlanta Journal Constitution poll has Trump +4 pushing his RCP average to over a 2.5% lead in Georgia. He's +1.8 in Arizona. Many of the key swing states only have the Wall Street Journal poll from early October in Harris' favor but a new Atlas Intel poll has her up 2 in North Carolina. For all the blowback against the "R" pollsters like Trafalgar and Rasmussen, their results are pretty much in line with everyone else's.

Betting average is Trump +21.4.

[Mike]

Anyone who votes for Trump has agency and personal accountability. Buzz off with this crap that the Dems are responsible for anything bad done by either political party. Republican primary voters overwhelmingly wanted their beloved senile game show host to come back for a 3rd bite at the apple. Deal with it. He's your boy. Yours. Not mine. You're voting for him. Not me. No one's forcing you to do anything. You have free will.

Didn't say the Ds are responsible for both political parties. They ARE responsible for their own, however. Generally speaking, a higher quality candidate will garner a higher percentage of the vote. Likewise on the R side. "Generic R" would win about 500 electoral votes against Harris. Instead we'll have to wait until Thanksgiving to figure out who wins this shit show.

[Dr. Strangelove]

If the Dems lose the election, it's primarily on Biden for breaking his understood promise to only serve one term. He dropped out too late to hold an entire set of primaries, so only an open convention was a possibility. And that would've almost certainly been a fiasco with multiple factions forming and the media yelling DEMS IN DISARRAY for weeks. Harris obviously stinks but we had to coalesce fast around somebody and she made the most sense.

Anyways thank you to Donald Trump for agreeing to an unusually early debate in June. Without that Sleepy Joe would be the candidate right now.

[Mike]

That early debate saved their asses but only after Biden put it in peril to begin with.

[Dr. Strangelove]

538 Averages vs RCP averages. 538 gives extra weight to pollsters who have a track record for accuracy. RCP does not

RCP

WI: Trump +0.4
NC: Trump +0.5
NV: Trump +0.7
PA: Trump +0.8
MI: Trump +1.2
AZ: Trump +1.8
GA: Trump +2.5

538

WI: Harris +0.3
NV: Harris +0.3
MI: Harris +0.2
PA: Trump +0.3
NC: Trump +0.8
GA: Trump +1.5
AZ: Trump +1.9

[Mike]

538 has moved from Trump 53/100 to 51 today.

[Dr. Strangelove]

That's possibly because Harris got a decent batch of swing state polls from George Mason/Wash Post. RCP doesn't appear to include them.

Honestly the race has been extremely stagnant. If you look at RCP's average of Pennsylvania, both Harris and Trump have stayed between 47% and 48.5% since early August.

[AlabamAlum]

Yeah, stagnation is expected. I don’t think there are a ton of fence walkers. People hate Trump and would never vote for him or hate Kamala and would never vote for her (or in my case, both). I don’t think debates or whatever will move that needle much.