Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

Just four accounts spending $30 million on Polymarket turned a 50-50 betting market into one 62-38 in Trump's favor over the past couple weeks. This is why betting markets are NOT accurate predictors of elections. One person with a lot of money to burn (cough cough, Elon Musk) can manipulate the odds.

The accounts betting big on Trump—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie—were all funded by deposits from Kraken, a U.S.-based crypto exchange, according to Arkham. They behave in a similar fashion, systematically placing frequent bets on Trump and stepping up the size of their bets at the same time, Arkham found. The oldest of the accounts was created in June, while the newest was created this month.

A Mystery $30 Million Wave of Pro-Trump Bets Has Moved a Popular Prediction Market

[Mike]

Another day, another tick toward Trump in the polls. The swing states are still all a coin flip but a new Rasmussen poll of Wisconsin came in for Trump +2 which put the state in his column +0.1. He now leads all 7 key states, albeit by tiny margins, in the RCP average. I know Rasumssen skews right but I've also read that they were the most accurate over the last couple cycles so who knows. I think by mid to late November it'll all be sorted out.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Trump says people at Fox helped write his jokes for his speech last night. Would explain why he seemed less funny than usual.

[Mike]

Yeah it was a little flat. I did like the one about "White Dudes for Harris". He said "I'm not worried about them because all their wives and their wives' lovers are voting for me".

There's no way Harris could have pulled off anything approaching affable or likeable at that event. Wise to skip it.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Another day, another tick toward Trump in the polls. The swing states are still all a coin flip but a new Rasmussen poll of Wisconsin came in for Trump +2 which put the state in his column +0.1. He now leads all 7 key states, albeit by tiny margins, in the RCP average. I know Rasumssen skews right but I've also read that they were the most accurate over the last couple cycles so who knows. I think by mid to late November it'll all be sorted out.

Rasmussen is now a hack outfit and almost a part of Trump's campaign itself but their polls still have some credibility. Trafalgar is the only one I will dismiss out of hand with contempt. I was trying to find how Rasmussen did in 2022 and they seem to have mainly sat out the midterms.

On the whole there are a lot more Republican-aligned pollsters than there used to be: American Greatness, Insider Advantage, RMG, Redfield & Wilton, etc.

[Mike]

FWIW, 538 has a much more favorable outlook for Harris but even those polls are tightening with Trump essentially even in PA.

[Dr. Strangelove]

You can use this site to see what percentage of your county or town has returned their absentee ballots. Saw that Dems are quite happy that over 50% of Detroit's absentee ballots have already been turned in.

Michigan Voting Dashboard

[CGVT]

And you fuckers are still voting for this jackass?

[Mike]

You always seem so angry. Mehdi Hassan is a fucking clown and imbecile.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Those Venezuelan bastards are at it again!

[Mike]

Since this morning, 538 has put Georgia and Arizona in the "Leans Republican" category. They now only have 5 "toss up" states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada. Current projections without toss-ups is Trump 246 - Harris 226. If those states deliver and Trump takes PA, Harris will have to sweep the other 4.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Since this morning, 538 has put Georgia and Arizona in the "Leans Republican" category. They now only have 5 "toss up" states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada. Current projections without toss-ups is Trump 246 - Harris 226. If those states deliver and Trump takes PA, Harris will have to sweep the other 4.

Yeah they have AZ/GA as both 60/40 states.

Haberman (NYTimes reporter) was on tv yesterday saying the Trump campaign actually felt PA was their worst state of the Rust Belt 3.

[crashcourse]

Jim GaFFIGAN was the one who was harpooning fokkers left and right. he obliterated harris

Bob Casey out with new ads supporting trump positions

"I sided with trump on certain positions"

Not a good sign if your harris

[Mike]

Gaffigan was really good. Especially his takedown of the Ds on "SAVE DEMOCRACY!"

[Dr. Strangelove]