Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Mike]

Ha!

[Cody_Russell]

Lolololo.

…

Looking forward to the big debate tomorrow. Contemplating getting out the Jolly Time popcorn as a cheat meal. Maybe…

It’s interesting looking at the polls right now. If they’re off similar margins as 2020, Trump should be a big favorite to win right now. I’m skeptical about it and this race simply appears to be a total toss up at this time. The debate can slightly change things with thousands of independent voters.

For example when it comes to the polls: Drill down into 538.com’s state by state (swing state) poll margins and compare 2020 vs 2024. Then look at the actual results from the 2020 election. 538 was off 3-4% on average for most swing states. That would basically say Trump is ahead right now if 2024 is the same. Who knows!

[Mike]

RCP has a good retrospective of the polls "on this date" in 2020 and 2016. They were wildly off in 2016 and off 3-4 points in 2020 both in favor of the Ds. Whether the models have been more accurately calibrated for 2024 remains to be seen. the race has clearly been tightened up, though. Trump gets his only shot at Harris (she will duck the other debates) and needs to make it count. So far in his career he's done really well outside of the debacle in 2020 which, IMO, cost him reelection. He also has some scalps of his own, Bush, Clinton, Biden Part II. Harris, as we all know, fucking sucks in debates. Her momentum has predictably stalled, now is the time Trump has to take it back.

[Mike]

FWIW, Trump has taken back the lead in the RCP betting average by 5 points. It was tied going into the weekend.

[Dr. Strangelove]

The Harris sugar high is over. Polls have settled at it being very close.

[Dr. Strangelove]

With regard to the weird Haitian panic that’s popped up in the past couple days.

[Dr. Strangelove]

The big mystery is whether Trump gets those low-frequency voters to turn out for him in the same numbers as in the past. Or are they starting to be bored/burned out with him?

[THE_WIZARD_]

...the other question I have is...will DSL ever find his brain?

[Cody_Russell]

I do love DSL’s profile picture. Walton Goggins’ Baby Billy. Favorite character on that series for sure.

[AlabamAlum]

He was born in Birmingham! Roll Tide!

[THE_WIZARD_]

I heard a rumor that in Birmingham they love the governor....oooh oooh oooh...

Any truth to that AA?

[Dr. Strangelove]

And another reversal...Michigan Supreme Court (looks like a 5-2 decision) says RFK will stay on the ballot after all

Robert Kennedy's name stays on ballot, Michigan Supreme Court says (detroitnews.com)

[THE_WIZARD_]

What does Lez and Dickless Cheney say about that?

[lineygoblue]

And another reversal...Michigan Supreme Court (looks like a 5-2 decision) says RFK will stay on the ballot after all

Robert Kennedy's name stays on ballot, Michigan Supreme Court says (detroitnews.com)

The Michigan Supreme Court is made up entirely of friends of Gretch. No surprise there. They all have boats in the same marina in Petoskey.

The two who went against the majority will lose their boat docking privileges. The entire state is run by Democrats now. Republicans have no representation at all. Republicans have nobody in any political position in Michigan that will listen to them.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Different than other states, RFK was running as the candidate for the Natural Law Party, not an Independent. My understanding is he did that because the NLP in Michigan for the time being automatically qualifies for the ballot in Michigan so RFK wouldn't have to gather signatures. I mean, The Natural Law Party probably should've realized this guy was out for himself and himself alone. But he would've been screwing them over pretty good because without hitting 1% this year they'd lose their automatic status.