Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

The old man's still GOT IT!!!

[iam416]

BRINGING THE HEAT!!!!!!!! SMASHING MOTHERFUCKERZ WITH FOLDING CHAIRS AND CLEANING HOUSE!

[CGVT]

I'd vote for a sack of potatoes before I would vote for Trump.

And yes, I know that may be the case

[Dr. Strangelove]

Biden's presser last night

[iam416]

LOL.

I mean, it goes without saying that I'd vote for The Nature Boy over either of these two assclowns, but it's still worth saying.

[Dr. Strangelove]

I can buy 40 different kinds of peanut butter when I go to the store but THESE TWO are all we've got for President? God Bless the USA!!!

[Dr. Strangelove]

There’s tons to sift through in that Tucker-Putin interview but this part stands out. Poland actually started WWII because they obstinately refused to “peacefully surrender” territory to Hitler.

[Dr. Strangelove]

A lot of the interview was essentially this:

[Mike]

Saw a funny comment on an article about Biden from last night. "Trump! At least he's competent enough to stand trial!" Oh, what fun lies ahead in this presidential election year... JFC.

[Dr. Strangelove]

[Mike]

What could possibly go wrong?

[Da Geezer]

Seems more likely than not it'll be a 9-0 decision against Colorado

I predict 8-1 with Sotomayor being the odd justice. I listened to all the arguments and she seemed to buy the Colorado solicitor's arguments. It is getting to the point where she is sounding a lot like Biden in her use of language. It would be best for the Ds if she retires while they still hold the Senate.

[Da Geezer]

I got this from an investment letter I subscribe to:

While the Feds comments and stance disappointed the market a bit, that’s not what sent rates surging higher. Friday’s Jobs Report shocked the market with a headline figure of 353,000 job creations in January. This was more than double expectations – there wasn’t a person on the planet expecting anywhere near this number, so the question is, how or why did this happen? Let’s bring it down as simply as possible!

There are two parts to the monthly Jobs Report:

• The first one is an algorithm based on modeling and estimations using things like birth-death ratios, estimated number of people turning 18, graduating college, retiring, etc. That model is what reported 353,000 new jobs in January.
• The second part is a household survey done by phone. Roughly 60,000 households are selected randomly for a phone call and asked if they are employed. This survey is then extrapolated out over the US population – this survey indicated there were 31,000 job losses in January.

This has been a topic of discussion for a couple of years now – this large spread between what the models tell us and what the random household tells us. Neither estimation is perfect, but the markets often react to the model estimation figure and not the household survey…and unfortunately for rates, the Fed also leans on the models that affect their monetary policy, such as hiking or cutting rates. On one hand, we have a model telling us there were 353,000 new jobs taken in January, but everyday household phone calls tell us there were actually job losses. It’s anyone’s guess as to which one is more accurate.

The bottom line for now is that the headline number of jobs suggests the economy is doing better than perhaps it really is, or at the very least, better than the Fed wants to see before considering rate cuts. A strong economy does not bode well for bringing inflation down which gives the Fed more of a reason to keep rates higher for longer.

[Mike]

It's apparent that Biden should not be the D nominee come November but how would that process even work? Primary season has already started and there's really no way for a handful candidates to throw together campaigns and fundraise at this stage of the cycle. Super Tuesday is less than 4 weeks away so even if Biden announced today that he will not seek re-election, I don't think you can even get people on the ballot in time. Then there's the issue of the states that already voted. It's a mess. I suppose the only possibility would be with an old-fashioned nominating convention. That kind of flies in the face of their "Democracy!" schtick.

Bottom line: they're stuck with Joe. Don't expect to see him much this summer. Or fall. Or ever.

[Mike]

Geezer, that's very interesting. I never really thought too much about how they derive at those numbers. I figured it was based off how many people are paying payroll taxes from month to month by comparing how many payers dropped off to how many new ones were added. I'm skeptical of models because they are so easily manipulated. When it comes to polls I prefer live humans responding to questions. Yes, people sometimes lie but, IMO, I consider those more accurate than some fancy stat nerd banging away at math equations.

Edit: the rationale for the 353,000 figure seems more like a projection of how many jobs are needed based on the inputs you listed.