Originally posted by Jeff Buchanan
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It's not an official assessment but when you put several accounts together, there are a couple of noteworthy circumstances that are going to help determine the outcome of the war in Ukraine and things are not looking good for Putin.
First, along the entire front of the conflict which roughly follows the contours of the Luhansk, Donetesk and Kherson Oblasts and now includes Crimea...... or most of eastern Ukraine that boarders Russia, There are several key areas where battles are occurring with tactical gains by Ukraine and retreats by RRAF. Reports lay out the roll of the Storm Z units that are embedded within the main fighting units of the RAF. These units have two primary sources of fighters: (1) Russian prisoners who volunteered to fight in Ukraine fin exchange for pardons and (2) fighters in the regular units of the RAF that are being disciplined for various types of insubordination or crimes committed while in the service of the Russian military. Failing to follow orders to attack or drunkenness are common reasons these members of the regular RAF are assigned to Storm Z units.
Further, Reuters investigated these units following a video a month ago that made it to the internet where 28 Storm Z unit members refused to attack because they were ordered to do so without ammunition, food, water or artillery support. Reuters interviewed relatives of the 28 men to get an accurate picture of Storm Z operations. First, the purpose of these units is to precede regular forces, that are already degraded in carrying out counter attacks against advancing UAF forces - they are meat, or expendable cannon fodder. Wounded soldiers are not carried to aid stations and the dead are left on the ground to rot. This is a Stalin era tactic used by the Red Army when the Nazis were advancing inside Russia. That tactic is being repeated on the battlefields in Ukraine.
The implication is that the regular units of the RAF are understrength, trying to conserve resources and under supported. Fragile would be a good description of them. Russian defensive doctrine relies on three tiers of field fortifications with elastic retreats from prepared positions and features counterattacks to try to regain them. Presently, there is more retreating and/or attrition of soldiers and equipment going on then effective counterattacking. The MOD punishes commanders who try to conserve manpower by not carrying out useless counterattacks that do nothing but waste soldiers lives. Observers believe the MOD is being pushed by political forces to make advances that, across the entire front are unobtainable. Holding on to territory already claimed is, by several accounts, seriously jeopardized.
Meanwhile, British intelligence has publicly announced that Russia's Black Sea Fleet that operates from Crimea has been "functionally defeated" and has withdrawn a large number of naval ships and personnel to ports within Russia's boarders. An article that appeared today suggests that whoever controls Crimea, wins. That seems to be an objective of the UAF. Effective, and un published multiple attacks by drones and missiles of the Ukrainian Airforce have destroyed air defenses and ships around Sevastapol. The Black Sea Fleet's HQ was blown up by three cruise missiles two weeks ago, allegedly killing the BSF Commander. Ukraine has successfully pursued attacks of key resupply routes and locations, both inside and outside of Crimea undermining the capability of RAF to sustain combat operations to prevent UAF advances on multiple locations across the entire front - this without directly confronting entrenched Russian fighting units although this is also taking place in a sensible way by conserving forces and executing precise artillery fires.
The bottom line is that it appears that the confluence of favorable outcomes for Ukraine and set backs for Russia are tending to tilt the outcome of Putin's war on Ukraine in Ukraine's favor. It's not happening to morrow or probably not this year either but if the trends keep up, Ukraine will precipitate the withdrawal of the RAF from key strategic locations, including Crimea that will force Putin to reconsider his objectives.
Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.
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