Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Jeff Buchanan]

Edit: Added ........The comments and especially the videos in DSL's link are especially revealing. The picture being painted is that the Russian civilian population isn't calling out for Prighozen to stand down. In fact, it looks more like they are liking what's going on. The untold, muted story of Russian civilians who are opposed to Putin's war unleashed.

The NYTs is reporting that Mikhail B. Khodorkovsky, a Russian businessman who has sought to unite groups opposing Putin, called on Russians opposed to the regime to arm themselves.

“Now we see that only armed people can resist the dictatorship,” Khodorkovsky wrote on his Telegram channel. “Now there is a small window of opportunity when there is chaos on the streets and the security forces are not in control of the situation.”

He said the dramatic standoff would likely be resolved in Putin's favor resulting in worsening repression.

“If you see the strength in yourself in the future to become those armed people who will oppose Putin or Prigozhin, then it’s time to arm yourself,” he said. “Prigozhin is not our friend and not even our ally. He is a bandit and a war criminal. But his rebellion is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, and there won’t be another like it for a long time.”

The important part in tis report is that a known Russian opposition figure recognizes that Prigozhin is as much of a threat to Russian society as Putin is. Another recently published analysis does some hand wringing (somewhat appropriate) over Russia's nuclear arsenal being controlled by Prigozhin. There's speculation that yes, he's headed to Moscow. His goal isn't to occupy the MoD there and start negotiating but rather to gain access to Russia's nukes and go from there - a nightmare scenario even if it is highly unlikely. Would make a great international intrigue novel if it weren't for such a scenarios is not out of the question.

[Dr. Strangelove]

And just like that…possibly over?

[Jeff Buchanan]

Well, this is all for the better. Too much uncertainty if Wagner PMC got physical leverage in Moscow by, say for example, occupying the Russian MoD there - I think his intended goal.

Kremlin authorities earlier today offered amnesty for Wagner PMC soldiers. I doubt that included Prigozhen or his high ranking board. I'm certain part of the deal that was reportedly brokered between Prigozhen and Belarusian president Lukashenko included that. Putin has to follow through with identifying and charging the mutinous organizers. He cannot afford to have Prigozhen sit on the sidelines and continue his criticism. It would be dangerous and unlike Putin to allow that. Charges, apprehension, trials and sentencing for the key mutineers is going to give Prigozhen a stage that I doubt Putin will allow him to have. There will be the appearance of a judicial process and justice meted out but the accused will not likely be heard in public.

The big ask is what happens to the leadership of the Russian MoD. I find it hard to believe Prigozhen abandoned all of his demands regarding Shoigu and Garrisimov. Ancillary to that is the question of what augmentation of the current Russian operations in Ukraine will take place or whether Putin will simply carry out the, in reality, limited scope of operations in Ukraine as planned? Will Putin double down on his maximalist goals as Prigozhen has been agitating for?

To be fair, this turn of events creates a lot of military uncertainty for Ukraine, especially if, for example, Putin were to unleash a fearless air war against Ukraine focusing on taking down Kiev. Yes, Kiev's air defenses have held up well and the military hardware defending the capital has demonstrated strengths that have made Putin unwiling to risk the losses of Russian aircraft an actual Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) operation would entail. It's doable, though. Of course, Putin still will not want to risk a significant escalation that brings conventional NATO forces into the battle space with Ukraine. The fallout from the Prigozhen lead mutiny that will become more evident next week will be interesting. How it is managed by the axis and allies will be critical going forward.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Kremlin spokesman, Peskov, announced that the criminal case against the Wagner leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, would be dropped. Prigozhin will go to Belarus, Peskov said, and the fighters who rebelled with him would not be prosecuted by law given their "service at the front." Wagner fighters who did not participate in the mutiny will sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Nothing yet about what Prigozhen will do, or be allowed to do, in Belarus. The rest of it is pretty straight forward. Putin has a steep climb ahead of him to regain eroding credibility within the Kremlin and among the Russian population. Ukraine isn't going to sit back and let him have an easy climb. You can bet they already have plans to make trouble for him.

This guy Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine's intel chief is a bad ass. He's been involved in most of the operations both inside Russia and Ukraine where Ukraine has publicly denied involvement, e.g., the Kersh Bridge explosion, recent forays by irregular Ukrainian forces in Russian boarder towns, drones over Moscow and Rostov-on-Don. He is thought to have been and continues to be a target of Russian assassination. During the initial days of the Russian invasion, Russian Spetznaz units were in Kiev to hunt him down and liquidate him. His daily whereabouts are not public knowledge nor even known among those outside his closely held inner circle. It is believed Putin fears him. Cloak and dagger shit.

[Mike]

LAME!

[Jeff Buchanan]

The aftershocks of yesterday's Wagner crisis and it's resolution by a foreign leader, Belorussian leader, Lukashenko, haven't become evident yet. Putin has made no public appearances or statements since his last on Saturday morning and right after that, he is believed to have left Moscow on his private Jet headed to a private residence near St. Petersburg. No one who might know for certain where he is have said anything about that in the public information space. An interview with Putin was aired Sunday morning where he mentioned his continued commitment to his military objectives in Ukraine. Reportedly, the interview was recorded last Wednesday. There's been no official Kremlin announcements or mention of yesterday's events.

Russian forces launched a significant missile and drone bombardment of Kiev and 2 other cities early Sunday morning stressing Ukraine's air defenses. That was likely a demonstration of force and a statement that the Russian military in Ukraine is still at work. Other reports of military activities in the Ukrainian battle space are mostly non-existent as the focus in the last 48h has been on the Wagner crisis and it's resolution. No big Ukrainian breakthroughs, demonstrating that Ukraine was taking advantage of the crisis in Russia. Official Ukrainian military reports are heavy on coloring the Wagner crisis in Russia as a strong indication of Putin's weakness and discord within the Kremlin. There is little being reported on Ukrainian operations, routine reported in regular press briefings by Ukrainian military officials.

It's being reported that US intelligence agencies knew of Prigozhen's plans as early as last Wednesday, didn't pass that on to any other foreign countries or to Russia, concerned that doing so would give Putin an excuse to blame the US for orchestrating attempts to overthrow the Putin regime. There was plenty of that speculation floating around yesterday though. If there is one consistent take on what will happen in Russia going forward it is that Putin's hold on power has been weakened. Concerns are being voiced regarding the capacity of the Russian state, and Putin himself, to either elevate Putin's stature and restore his image as a strong leader or conduct an orderly transfer of power. IMO, it's just too early for anything solid to be taken from the kind of media and political analysis and speculation that's filling the information space today. Lot's of unresolved critical circumstances and unanswered questions involving both Russia, and all of eastern Europe, including Ukraine, have surfaced.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Edit, Correction: There was an uptick in Ukrainian counter-offensive operations south Bakhmut toward Vuldahar at the time of the Wagner crisis in Russia yesterday. Ukraine is said to have advanced seizing the city of Krasnohorivka, in the Donetsk region, which had been occupied by pro-Russia separatists since 2014. The fighting in this area had been ongoing since last Wednesday but Ukrainian units had increased attacks on Russian positions Satudday.

Also, I'm reading that the sense is that there seems to be no finality to the Wagner crisis. Too many uncertainties suggesting that there are fractures in the Russian leadership that could lead to instability within the country. Iranian commentators based in Iran have noted there is Iranian leadership concerns about instability in Russia brought about by the Wagner crisis and the apparent absence of Putin from the Kremlin scene, dearth of official reports from there and the lack of finality to yesterday's mutiny. Such instability is, according to public statements coming from Iranian officials, is unwelcome from the Iranian side in this newly developing military and political relationship between the two countries. These sorts of diplomatic statements made public suggest that back-channel communications between Iranian and Russian principle diplomats are more strongly asking the question of who's in charge in Russia?

[Whitley]

Pure speculation. Maybe the Wagner stuff is a feint to cover something else. Like maybe Putin needed medical treatment for a couple weeks and a potential fake coup would give him enough cover for the medical treatment.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Pure speculation. Maybe the Wagner stuff is a feint to cover something else. Like maybe Putin needed medical treatment for a couple weeks and a potential fake coup would give him enough cover for the medical treatment.

I've seen that mostly on Twitter. TBF, anything is possible but at this point based on publicly available information, we have no idea what's going on with Putin and where he is. This afternoon press releases from both the Kremlin and Minsk indicated Putin and Lukashenko had talked today (Sunday). Probably not meaningful.

Putin has made one videotaped appearance on Russian state TV. I would not be at all surprised that recording was made before Prigozhen actually started moving on Rostov-on-Don. We all saw how quickly Wagner moved into Rostov-on-Don and seized control of the the MoD in that city - a critical command hub for Russian forces operating in Ukraine. If the US has admitted they knew on Wednesday that Prigozhen was going to move on the Russian Minister of Defense - create a credible threat to Shoigu and Garissimov - you can bet Russian intelligence knew that too, told Putin and he got the hell out of Dodge after being told that it might be difficult to stop Wagner forces from taking the Rostov-on-Don MoD and heading up the M4 highway to Moscow due to a lack of resources to do that.

Pro-Ukraine milbloggers and Ukrainian military officials in public statements made note of how when the leaders of the two countries were threatened, one famously said, "I don't need a ride, I need ammunition," the other fled. For whatever reasons Putin left Moscow and has stayed out of sight and made no live appearances or made statements about the mutiny does nothing to help him politically - TBF, it is totally unlike the Putin most of the world has come to know. IOW, it's a big hit to his stature as the tough Kremlin boss he has worked hard to manufacture. SoS Blinken was asked on two Sunday news shows where he thought Putin was? Blinken responded, "I'm not going to speculate on that." Chances are they have a pretty good idea. Putin, out of an extreme paranoia, is famous for cloaking his movements. That's really hard to do these days.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Just released by the Kremlin:

"Following several whirlwind new cycles and a “tense” weekend, Russian authorities have told journalists to take a day off."

Bizarre.

Anti-terror operations - at least the obvious ones such as road blockades and check-points, closing public venues and museums in both Moscow and Rostov-on-Don have been removed. But on Saturday as part of the anti-terror operation the Kremlin announced all government offices and public venues would be closed on Monday. Stock exchange would operate normally. Recommendations to close private businesses on Monday were also announced. All of that suggests Russian authorities don't think the threats posed by the Wagner Crisis (including any operations undertaken by Ukraine to destabilize the situation inside Russia) have been eliminated. Also provides clues as to why Putin has made his whereabout unknown.

[Dr. Strangelove]

[Whitley]

A good video worth watching, Matt Stoller, an antitrust journalist breaking down the reality of the PGA Tour/Liv merger.

[Jeff Buchanan]

ISW describes political leadership in the Kremlin following the Wagner crisis as chaotic - this assessment based on the lack of the appearance of key leadership (Putin, Shoigu, Garrisimov). What appears to be reliable insider information involves a shake-up within the MoD with the likelihood that both Shoigu and Garissimov will be sacked. A few names have circulated as replacements. Pro-war milblogger views have been split between anger that Prigozhen appears to be escaping accountability and praise for the calmness exhibited by Putin and Kremlin principles in resolving the crisis. The predominant view per ISW is that the angry faction is in the majority. One ultranationalist group, Angry Patriots Club, has been especially critical of Putin and the war effort overall.

That Putin appears to be allowing Telegram channels that are critical of the war and how victory is not being properly pursued by the Russian MoD is consistent with his past tolerance hoping to harness these groups messages in directly criticizing the MoD while simultaneously absolving him of blame for Russia's military failures in Ukraine. The reality is that with the Wagner Crisis, he can no longer escape association with the failed strategy and tactical defeats of Russian army units on the ground. Russians see Prigozhen as a successful commander and effective leader while seeing Putin's MoD and Putin by association with principals there as failures.

ISW does not think that the Wagner crisis will substantially affect Russian military operations in Ukraine. I disagree with that in part because with the loss of trust Putin has garnered for himself in all of this, because of Prigozhen's characterization of Russian leadership in the Kremlin as corrupt and the war only a means to enrich corrupt military and civilian officials, soldiers will be asking, "why amd I going to fight and die to preserve a rotten and corrupt regime. Equally as fragile is the military chain of command from which orders are passed down will be viewed by subordinate to subordinate on down the change to the unit level skeptically. There's always been a problem with battlefield initiative in the Russian army with subordinates not acting without the approval of an immediate superior. This problem is going to get worse going forward.

SIde note: Intelligence agencies keeping track of the Zaphorizia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in southern Ukraine - Europe's largest nuclear power plant - see an elevated risk that the Russians will sabotage it creating a radiation leak and blame the Ukrainians for shelling it. Russian forces will be affected more by such an act than Ukrainian forces because of known force dispositions plotted against predicted radiation spread pathways. The Russians demonstrated they don't care much about keeping their forces safe if their willingness to flood Russian defensive positions with the intentional destruction of the Kakhovka dam causing catastrophic damage can be used as a gauge of that.

[THE_WIZARD_]

I have a nephew living in Moscow right now...he told my sister that Putin is about as popular as Trump at an LGBTQ rally...

[AlabamAlum]

I always suspected Wiz’ family was filled with dirty, corn-eating commies.