Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[froot loops]

We'll see how DeSantis plays nationally but he can't just be a saner version of Trumpism in my opinion. That shit has a ceiling and the ceiling is lower if it isn't Trump delivering it.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Good. We need a complete purge of the 2020 election morons and Trump boot-lickers. The sooner that R pols realize those are losing positions and those of Kemp and DeSantis are winners, the more likely they will distance themselves from Trump. Too many politicians fear him and are afraid to piss him off but after last night that should not be the case at all. I was watching the returns on a flight back from the west coast and when it became apparent that the night was going in the shitter for the Rs, the image that came to mind was when Rocky cut Drago. Stop fearing that ass clown! He can be defeated from the right, too. Point out his utterly fucking awful electoral record: Lost the House, Senate, and Executive in a single term. Cost the Rs the Senate two elections in a row and seems hell bent on knee-capping the biggest star the Rs have.

You may have skimmed or skipped my drunken ramblings last night (shame on you if you did) but Boebert is also in real danger of losing.

[iam416]

We'll see how DeSantis plays nationally but he can't just be a saner version of Trumpism in my opinion. That shit has a ceiling and the ceiling is lower if it isn't Trump delivering it.

Nah. Immmigration and crime are big issues with a higher ceiling if DJT isn't delivering it.

And it won't matter how DeSantis plays nationally if The Chairman is running.

[Hannibal]

Talent -- I’m warning you though not to take the wrong lesson from last night’s disaster. The R running in Colorado adopted the RINO strategy and when all the votes are counted, he's probably not going to outperform Trump.

[iam416]

I've already said what I think the lesson is and I largely agree with on both DJT and abortion.

That said, I think you also need to run candidates that can win with certain eletorates. Pennsylvania is different from Colorado. Rhode Island is different from Orange County. If you're an one-size-fits all guy, then fine. But, IMO, you have to adjust to the venue.

[Dr. Strangelove]

I hadn't even really considered redistricting but when you factor in that Dems lost those battles by a wide margin, on top of Pharoah Amenhotep's unpopularity, inflation, crime, historic trends, yadda yadda, for the R's to only net something like 10-15 seats would be pitiful. But there's a lot that could still happen out West I guess.

[Hannibal]

The Boebert loss is really surprising. But IMHO not a huge loss. That was our AOC. She talks like a Saturday Night Live parody of a Republican and she was basically a softcore porn model who got scouted and was playing a part.

[Hannibal]

I hadn't even really considered redistricting but when you factor in that Dems lost those battles by a wide margin, on top of Pharoah Amenhotep's unpopularity, inflation, crime, historic trends, yadda yadda, for the R's to only net something like 10-15 seats would be pitiful. But there's a lot that could still happen out West I guess.

Are the Rs even forecasted to gain 10 seats? They are already at just +4 and that is with a few flip losses uncalled.

[iam416]

I hadn't even really considered redistricting but when you factor in that Dems lost those battles by a wide margin, on top of Pharoah Amenhotep's unpopularity, inflation, crime, historic trends, yadda yadda, for the R's to only net something like 10-15 seats would be pitiful. But there's a lot that could still happen out West I guess.

They may not even get to 10.

[Hannibal]

I also agree that anything 2020 election related, other than reforms for future elections, was not a winning issue yesterday, but I don’t think that cost the Rs nearly as much as the abortion issue.

[iam416]

So, I view Hannibal is a pretty standard DJT voter. Or at least in the ballpark. I think he's going to be fairly representative of a fair amount of his supporters. Not the hardcore, die on the beach guys, but definitely supporters. His mood, I think, is pretty indicative of where things are going. I think his particular cohort hates the Progs more than they love DJT, and the fact that they are going to govern is a problem, and if that problem can fixed by a reasonable facsimile they're going in that direction. If they can fix that problem with someone who is still a strong R, they'll move to him.

Perhaps I'm too optimistic. Perhaps 2024 will end up being a crowded primary that will get DJT through. I would never bet against him winning that, but I'm optimistic there's a real chance to unseat him.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Are the Rs even forecasted to gain 10 seats? They are already at just +4 and that is with a few flip losses uncalled.

CNN currently has them at +6 but I know there are races that've been called by other outlets that CNN has not.

The NY Times is currently projecting 224 (R) to 212 (D). That would be a net of +12 for Republicans.

[froot loops]

Just because O'Dea didn't win doesn't mean his strategy was flawed. That's a tough race to win, It would be like if somebody complained about Tim Ryan's campaign against the Ham Sandwich.

[iam416]

So, DSL (or anyone else) -- what's your honest take on the election -- assuming something like low 220s and assuming the Ds win the Senate?

(1) Where does that leave The Chairman?
(2) Where does that leave DJT?
(3) Is 2024 a 2020 rematch or do you think it more likely than not that at least one or both of the assclowns gets beat in the primary?

I'll give you my short answers:

(1) With the nomination if he wants it.
(2) In an absolute battle with DeSantis.
(3) I think it more likely than not DeSantis gets DJT. I think it more likely than not The Chairman runs again.

[iam416]

Just because O'Dea didn't win doesn't mean his strategy was flawed. That's a tough race to win, It would be like if somebody complained about Tim Ryan's campaign against the Ham Sandwich.

Correct. Colorado is at least as blue as Texas is red. Not as blue as Florida is red, though. Heh. The only real upside for Rs last night.