Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[iam416]

Small victories, but good ones. At least some sanity remains in America.

Not so small in my book. But, yeah. And since I'm not particurlay wed to the Rs and certainly not to DJT, it's a whatever night. The Rs all won in Ohio, and the sane Rs won HUGE.

Like I said, 6 months ago this about where I thought it'd be. The House will be closer AND the Ds could end up at 52, I guess. I had it at 50 or 51.

And if the Rs are actually able to use this disappointment to finally get rid of DJT then it's a huge win (in my book).

[Dr. Strangelove]

Dems control the Michigan state senate for the first time since 1983.

[lineygoblue]

I agree, re: Trump. He really, really needs to go. He won't of course, but that's what needs to happen.

Instead he's going to go the route of "If you would have listened to me, ... "

My biggest disappointments are here in Michigan. We had a chance to get rid of a self serving egotistical idiot, only to watch the state totally forget what she's done over the last two years. All Michigan people need to do is go out and drive down the street, and see all the businesses that were here in 2019, that are not operating today. That is Gretch's legacy, and Michigan voters obviously don't care. Every community in Michigan has been affected by her selfishness, but yet she's 'rewarded' with another term. I get it that Tudor Dixon was a so-called 'weak' candidate, but she would have been light years better in the governors mansion than Gretch.

As I said last night, thank goodness for term limits. She's gone for sure in 2026. Its going to be a long four years for Michiganders.

[Dr. Strangelove]

[lineygoblue]

Dems control the Michigan state senate for the first time since 1983.

The Dems successfully re-gerrymandered the districts to their advantage. Congrats, I guess.

I believe the House still goes to R's, and they will control the budget at least. Gretch won't get to raise gasoline prices another $.45 per gallon yet.

[Hannibal]

I went to bed pretty early last night, soon after Ron DeSantis stomped a 19-point mudhole in his opponent. But even then, there were some troubling signs as the early bellweather races didn't go as the Rs hoped they would go. I knew that DeSantis was special, but I didn’t envision that he would stand so head and shoulders above the rest of the R party last night. I have been grumbling about the impotence of the party for some time now. Last night’s failure is multifaceted and has lots of culprits.

Walker and Oz were both atrocious picks for the Rs. Oz failed to turn out the base and underperformed Trump in lots of key areas. Walker was chosen because he’s Blackrepublican. Nobody wants to admit this, but it’s the R’s attempt to beat the Ds in the identity politics game. His personal background is a disaster and he doesn’t articulate anything well. The R governor candidate pool in Michigan was a clown show. That was a clinic on how to steal defeat from the jaws of victory. I personally think that Vance was a crappy candidate too, but you can be crappy in a year like this year and still win a Trump +9 state in a year where the oppposition party president is -10 in his approval rating. I predict that he's going to be one of the worst R Senators -- probably another Lindsey Graham type.

The biggest takeaway for me is that this is Ron’s party now. Or at least it needs to be. A 20 point swing there from the Ds to the Rs in just ten years. Wow. Trump obviously won’t accept Ron is the alpha dog though. The other big takeaway is that the Rs need to drop the all-out abortion ban as an issue. It’s a losing stance and no amount of lecturing or wishing will change that. Just accept universal legality of 1^st trimester abortions and take it off the table. Backlash against not just Dobbs, but also localized auto-bans was likely a factor last night. I think that America on both sides of the issue will at least grudgingly accept an equilibrium where abortion is legal in every purple or blue state.

[iam416]

I realize the biggest and most obvious story is Rs underperforming expectations (though, oddly, not by that much per 538 -- credit). They're probably going to lose 3 NV House districts by about 2 points each. And the Ds will win the Nevada Senate race to hold at least at 50.

But, from my perspective, the DJT-DeSantis angle is easily the biggest thing to come out of this election. The House will act as a brake to the lunacy of the Progs, so we have that. But, I'm a little surprised to see such a stark winner/loser outcome in the DJT-DeSantis battle.

I think DeSantis can win. Unfortunately, I think DJT will burn it all down if he loses.

[iam416]

The biggest takeaway for me is that this is Ron’s party now. Or at least it needs to be. A 20 point swing there from the Ds to the Rs in just ten years. Wow. Trump obviously won’t accept Ron is the alpha dog though. The other big takeaway is that the Rs need to drop the all-out abortion ban as an issue. It’s a losing stance and no amount of lecturing or wishing will change that. Just accept universal legality of 1^st trimester abortions and take it off the table. Backlash against not just Dobbs, but also localized auto-bans was likely a factor last night. I think that America on both sides of the issue will at least grudgingly accept an equilibrium where abortion is legal in every purple or blue state.

Correct on all counts.

We're either going to look back at this election as the turning point for the Rs in the DeSantis ascension sense, or bemoan the total fucking idiociy of not learning a damn thing and rolling with DJT. It really is that simple. DJT needs replaced. Until they do that, they'll continue to give away seats they should, by every right, win.

I also have to say, that I'm GLAD candidate quality mostly got punished (Fetterman is a terrible candidate, though, and he won...heh). I'm GLAD the electorate has at least enough "margins" to reject bad candidates.

[Hannibal]

I think DJT will burn it all down if he loses.

He might, but if you look at PA, you can see that his endorsements of Mastriano and Oz didn't propel those guys to victory and Oz underperformed badly vs. Trump in lots of areas. So I would argue that Trump as a non-candidate is either a non influence or a negative influence.

The failure was multifaceted though. The R party establishment more or less sabotaged a handful of candidates (e.g. Dixon and Mastriano) by completely abandoning them. And the overreach on the abortion issue didn't help at all. My guess is that when the stats are all compiled, that supposed turnaround that we were supposed to see in the suburbs will not have happened. Abortion is a huge, huge issue for white women. I have expressed my disappointment in this before, but I also have zero power over what other people consider to be important.

Re-litigating the 2020 election was also a hugely losing issue. I'll argue about it here with people on message boards, but the optics of it for a politician is terrible. The overwhelming majority of the country doesn't think that the 2020 election was stolen or illegitimate. "Election reform" is probably a winning issue in a few states, but just that -- reform -- not campaigning to overturn 2020.

[iam416]

LOL. Dixon and especially Mastriano were trash candidates that had no chance of winning. Same with Bolduc and Masters.

It may be multifaceted, but the biggest problem was total shit candidates in high profile and extremely winnable races. And we KNEW that was the case for the past 7 months. Retrospectively finding any other cause to be substantial is just nonsense.

[lineygoblue]

The biggest takeaway for me is that this is Ron’s party now. Or at least it needs to be.

This.

It won't be, of course, and Dems benefit from the fallout. They 'win' elections by default.

Perfect example is Gretch/Michigan. Had the election been held in November 2020, she would have been defeated by anything with a R next to their name. Probably by double digits. But last night, it was like, "what pandemic?"

[Hannibal]

Are the Rs actually forecast to take the House? Last I looked they were only a net +4 on pickups. IIRC that won't be enough.

[iam416]

I think it's likely they'll be in the 220s.

[Hannibal]

LOL. Dixon and especially Mastriano were trash candidates that had no chance of winning. Same with Bolduc and Masters.

It may be multifaceted, but the biggest problem was total shit candidates in high profile and extremely winnable races. And we KNEW that was the case for the past 7 months. Retrospectively finding any other cause to be substantial is just nonsense.

You get shit candidates though because the Republican Party establishment hates its base. So the most competent candidates end up acting more like controlled opposition than actual Conservatives when they win. This has been a problem for a long, long time. This is what has created the Trump cult following. I wish that it wasn't such a strong phenomenon, but it's not Trump's fault that the establishment Rs drove those people that way. This cycle, the R base chose ideology over electability, for the most part. Or in places like PA and GA, they just followed Trump's advice. In the past, they have done differently and that has resulted in huge do-nothing majorities led by losers like John Boehner and Paul Ryan. You're damned if you do, you're damned if you don't.

DeSantis lies at that intersection between "electability" and "ideology". And he's not even that gifted as a politician. His formula can be copied elsewhere if the Rs are smart enough to do it (spoiler alert: They aren't).

[CGVT]

Re GA Gov race. I think the main point to be taken is that although Dems don't agree with a lot of his policies, overall he has done a good job for GA. If you are a Dem living in a red state, you could do a lot worse (I talking about you Kay Ivey) The same goes for most of the rest of the Rs that held there state gov positions. GA rejected Trump's bat shit crazy ranting and to their credit the Rs in position of power did the right thing.

GA is head and shoulders over a state like Alabama politically. There is some semblance of sanity

Rhonda was always going to kick Crist's ass in Florida. The margin is really no surprise. Crist was a shitty candidate and Rhonda is an extremely popular governor.