Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Hannibal]

I assume you all heard that Trump is holding a rally with Rubio in South Florida this coming Sunday and DeSantis was not invited or even told about it in advance.

Heard about it. The two seem to be quietly distancing themselves from one another. DeSantis has visited a few places to campaign with Republicans, without Trump.

[iam416]

True -- he is uncharismatic and it's his weakness. But it's his only weakness. He can fundraise with the best of them and being on the Right Side of Covid History is by far a bigger "W" than anything Trump brings to the table -- other than maybe appointing the judges that were the deciding factor in Dobbs. He has an excellent track record as governor, and I think that he's about to get rewarded for it in a formerly purple state with a 10-15 point win. Making Florida a sudden red stronghold is a feat that won't go unnoticed. And he's smart enough to attack Trump in a way that won't alienate people who like Trump. Rather than relying on the old "orange man bad" stuff, Ron is the type of guy who will go our unsecured border for a photo op and shout "where's the wall you promised, Donald?" "How come you didn't fire Dr. Fauci, Donald?" "Why did you hide out in the Whtie House eating cheeseburgers while BLM burned down half the country, Donald"? "Why did you hire John Bolton, Donald"? Stuff like that that shows that Trump talked a big game but couldn't accomplish jack shit. I hope that the Rs listen. Maybe they will, maybe they won't.

DeSantis will be Trump's first worthy Republican opponent. 2016 was a clown car of bums and old Bush/McCain era losers trying to pretend that it was still the 1990s.

I agree with this. I disagree with my wife on this one. She fundamentally misunderstands DeSantis (IMO).

I think the most interesting outlier possibiity is if DJT declines to run and queen makes Lake.

[Mike]

Yeah, like I said, I embrace the "experiment", am massively thankful I don't live there and am quite curious as to the ultimate results.

Not sure why "#2" became "Forum" when I made my previous post. I changed it to "2nd in command".

[Hannibal]

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[iam416]

This is Geraghty's take on where the election is: https://www.nationalreview.com/the-m...term-coverage/

Basically, he's more focused on where the Ds are spending money, and he points out they're spending lots of money in places where they shouldn't be spending money. I'm inching ever closer to acknowledging that, for the first time in recorded human or otherwise history, The Wizard will be right about something non-buggery related with his steadfast red wave predictions. I feel dirty even saying it. But, man, I'm getting the sense that next week is going to be really, really bad for the Ds. Like Senators Oz and Walker bad, which was almost inconceivable to me two weeks ago. Now it's at least a real possibility (I still think a split is probably the best the Rs will do).

[Dr. Strangelove]

The WSJ number regarding white suburban women and Latinos is insane. I simply don't buy that they have moved 26 points in just two months time. Secondly, if that's actually true, then the WSJ overall number of GOP +2 makes absolutely no sense. If white suburbanites and latinos are +13 for the Republicans there's no way in hell Republicans are only up 2 points overall.

With lots of screwy polling this year you can prob trust fundamentals. The President's party almost always loses seats and there's lots of economic anxiety. Should be significant losses. I can also understand the theory that a lot of people in traditional deep blue states will do protest votes this year for R's because they think their vote will ultimately be meaningless. So there's closer races than normal in places like NY and CA

[Dr. Strangelove]

Neither here nor there but the Dow just had its best month (up 14%) since 1976. Don't ask me to explain it.

[Mike]

538's Senate predictor is 50/50 now. It was 72-28 D a month ago. It'll be interesting to see who ends up most accurate between 538 and RCP. They are quite divergent on several big races.

[iam416]

IMO, polling is most accruate when its a "blue wave" year. I think polling is fairly bad at picking up "red wave" years. That's my guy feeling. I can probably explain why I feel that way, but it's not really empirically or objectively backed, so meh.

But, IMO, the polling is probably undercounting R support.

[Mike]

That's why I tend to think the RCP predictions will end up being more accurate. They are at least attempting to compensate for typical undercounting of R support.

[crashcourse]

the pelosi story is just weird

as incredible as it sounds sounds like pelosi was pretty smart in his 911 call alerting police with an attacker already in his home

far as the media portrayal guy was a nut on both extremes although his gay pride and blm banners dont make a lot of sense for a guy who supposedly was a qanon fantic

[THE_WIZARD_]

He is Mega MAGA...just ask CGVT...

[Dr. Strangelove]

People that voted for Obama twice and then Trump twice don't make much sense to me yet there's a few million of em

[THE_WIZARD_]

I vote for you to ESAD.

[Dr. Strangelove]

That's why I tend to think the RCP predictions will end up being more accurate. They are at least attempting to compensate for typical undercounting of R support.

The liberal copium pushback would be that there are now more Republican-sponsored polls than ever before and the traditional polling outfits are releasing fewer than they used to.

And here's something I genuinely don't know; if a pollster speaks to someone who voted early, do they count towards the polls or not?