Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Hannibal]

It's much more likely to be 52/48 in favor of the Rs than the Dems. But 50/50 seems like it is happening unless the Rs pull off upsets in Arizona and PA.

Could happen.

[Hannibal]

DSL -- I think that a few pages ago, you were wondering where RCP gets their projections from.

Their methodology right now is to look at polling performances since 2016, apply those to 2022, and project pick-ups that way.

RCP.png
This means that you're assuming that the aggregates are off by about the same amount that they have been off, on average, since 2016. It's a bit shaky but not a crazy way to look at it.

At any rate, we'll find out in a few weeks.

[Dr. Strangelove]

No that's a reasonable way to look at it. I think it could be wrong here and there, just because I'm not sure Senate polls are always as far off as Presidential ones. But anyways, at least there's a method behind it.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Liz Truss yesterday: "I'm a fighter, not a quitter"

Liz Truss today: "Well that's the end for me"

lol unbelievable. Just 45 days, a new record for the shortest tenure as PM in British history. The Tories are an utter trainwreck right now.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Head of lettuce celebrates its victory over Liz Truss

Daily Star lettuce celebrates victory as Prime Minister Liz Truss resigns - Daily Star

[Jeff Buchanan]

As noted above, Liz Truss announced today she is going to resign.

Since the end of the coalition government in May 2015, Britain has had four prime ministers (David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Ms Truss) ..... same as the notoriously politically unstable and economically depressed Italy. Comparisons are being made these days between the mess in Italy and the emerging one in Great Britain.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Brexit or the fallout resulting from Brexit have brought down four successive Tory governments. There doesn't HAVE to be another general election until 2025 but public pressure on the Conservatives to call one will be pretty strong. They are extremely unpopular now.

[Hannibal]

I don't know about Brexit but at least both the US and Britain are feeling the pigeons coming home to roost after a long period of really bad policy making. Like most Western leaders, Boris Johnson essentially abdicated his power during Covid and let public health officials govern the country. And in addition, both he and the government that replaced him were fully 100% on board with Globohomo, which natives of Western countries are getting really sick of. The new "Conservative" government was bragging only a few weeks ago about how diverse they are.

[Hannibal]

Heh heh

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[Hannibal]

"Things are going to be much better now that we have gotten rid of those White males and we are instead choosing our leaders based on their skin color and genitalia..."


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[Jeff Buchanan]

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) that I follow on a daily basis has recently been focused on analysis of Putin's moves in response to military failures on several fronts: (1) On the ground in Ukraine. (2) Mobilization of men to military service that has been chaotic, disorganized and prompting public dissention and fracture lines within the Kremlin. (3) Problems equipping new recruits with even basic kit and paying them promised bonuses for signing up to serve. (4) Significant logistics failures resupplying Russian forces deployed inside Ukraine.

ISW offers that Putin has been shifting the Kremlin's narrative away from these problem areas to legal theater involving annexation of 4 Ukrainian Oblasts and announcing yesterday that Marshall Law is being declared in those 4 Oblasts as well as in some Russian Oblasts that border Ukraine. It appears that the purpose of the Marshall Law declarations is two fold: To set up local military agencies and newly conscripted self defense forces that will replace the bureaucratically inept Russian MOD, based in Moscow and, by extension, the failing Russian Army deployed within Ukraine. Putin is demonstrably favoring Wagner Group principals already operating in the Ukrainian eastern theater over Russian Army leadership. Additionally, Marshall Law is extending to the establishment of local administration of public services and education, replacing the centralized administration of those services also in Moscow.

ISW offers that this is political theater on Putin's part to both deflect blame from himself wrt to military failures in Ukraine and portray his Special Military Operation as conclusively successful in controlling the areas he defaulted to after failing to take Kiev and topple the Zelenski government. The reality on the ground in Ukraine is completely different. Ukrainian forces continue to advance, retake captured territory on two fronts and drive Russian forces into retreat. What appears to be happening now in the Kherson Oblast, another retreat and ceding more territory back to Ukrainian control, is a stark demonstration of that reality that Putin is attempting to obfuscate with the Russian public.

I'm not sure how the truth is supposed to arrive inside Russia and, in turn, threaten Putin's hold on power. As Putin tightens the noose of censorship and control of the Russian population via declarations of Marshall Law, that appears to be increasingly difficult. ISW offers that the way to counter Putin's recent moves is to facilitate more rapid Ukrainian successes on the battlefield. Timing of these efforts is critical as the longer it takes Ukraine to boot Russian forces out of the legal borders of that country, the harder that is going to get. That requires continued support to Ukraine of military equipment, ammunition and whatever covert support in terms of intelligence and electronic warfare can be delivered by the western allies. I think that is also going to get harder to do and Putin is counting on that.

[Dr. Strangelove]

[QUOTE=Hannibal;n1807220]"Things are going to be much better now that we have gotten rid of those White males and we are instead choosing our leaders based on their skin color and genitalia..."[\QUOTE]

Well the Truss govt entered a nose dive after announcing they planned to give the wealthy and big corporations massive tax cuts with no corresponding cuts in spending, which has been the standard white male conservative playbook in the USA for decades.

The markets freaked out, the pound sterling collapsed overnight, the Bank of England had to intervene, and Truss fired her Chancellor, the closest political ally she had.

[Hannibal]

[QUOTE=Dr. Strangelove;n1807226]

"Things are going to be much better now that we have gotten rid of those White males and we are instead choosing our leaders based on their skin color and genitalia..."[\QUOTE]

Well the Truss govt entered a nose dive after announcing they planned to give the wealthy and big corporations massive tax cuts with no corresponding cuts in spending, which has been the standard white male conservative playbook in the USA for decades.

The markets freaked out, the pound sterling collapsed overnight, the Bank of England had to intervene, and Truss fired her Chancellor, the closest political ally she had.

Yeah that's pretty tone deaf. But it takes some extraordinary incompetence to get drummed out of office in just 47 days. That's South Vietnam c1964 level stability.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Anyhoo I think I jokingly predicted they'd bring back Boris a few weeks ago and that's actually looking like a possibility.

[iam416]

The only way the right maintains a power in the UK is if the left continues to insist the UK must lick Brussels boots.