Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Jeff Buchanan]

The level of granular detail available in the daily ISW Critical Threat Reports is impressive. This is especially true in the latest 10/4 edition. There's quite a bit of clarity with respect to Ukrainian successes in the east (Donetsk Oblast) and south (Kherson Oblast). In the Kherson region the level of detail, previusly unavailable, is such that amateur military analysts, like myself, can see the emerging encirclement tactics the Ukrainians are successfully employing to force Russian unit withdrawals for fear of being encircled and forcing a surrender enmasse. It is also clear that whatever the fighting strength of Russian units along the front lines they establish are insufficient in numbers to defend those lines. The Ukrainian forces are breaking through and advancing.

ISW is also reporting detailed insight into the fractures and infighting within three groups, the support of them, essential to Putin's power base. For the first time, ISW is suggesting that Putin's presidency may be threatened by internal domestic forces he is not in control of. Most of these have to deal with the bureaucratic bungling of the MOD's mobilization and resistance to mobilization by large swaths of young Russians. The number seeking deferments or fleeing Russia are in the 100s of thousands. It is also being reported that interna security forces - the FSB and Rosgavardia - are resisting the drawdown of their personnel at the direction of the MOD to fill mobilization quotas.

The immediate effects on mobilization inside Russia to the relief of undermanned and collapsing Russian fighting units is going to be limited. It may reverse Ukrainian gains in the long term - meaning after a winter slow down and into next spring - if domestic dissent and internal infighting within the Kremlin don't render mobilization and training efforts of those mobilized failures. The US is reportedly warning the Zenski government it "must capitalize on recent gains." To me this suggests US intel sources know that if Russia succeeds in outlasting the forces aligned against it and mounts counter offensives in Ukraine that reverse today's Ukrainian gains, the larger battle v. Putin's land grabbing objectives will be lost.

[iam416]

Trump will cost the Rs the Senate two elections in a row. He can’t fade into the sunset fast enough.

I agree almost entirely. I will say that I think Walker was probably the nominee regardless. There was no one else in the field with any name recognition. Oz is probably the one that hurts R chances the most because I think a decent R beats Fetterman with some ease. I'm not sure how the alternatives to Vance would be doing, but I suspect Vance will still find a way to win, albeit running about 15 points behind DeWine.

[Dr. Strangelove]

You can arguably blame Trump for the highly popular Governor Chris Sununu declining to run in NH against Hassan. Instead a MAGA election-denier is running (assisted by Dem money).

[iam416]

Sununu, I think, made his own decision. He wasn't afraid of DJT. He's hugely popular and, obviously, would have beat Hassan. So, I think that's a little tenuous. However, his choice started the doom spiral for the Rs in the Senate.

[iam416]

I actually think Oz is gonna be pretty close to Fetterman. Like real close -- certainly close enough that it'll raise a ton of "what ifs". Walker, like I said, is the nominee regardless and he'll lose by by 4ish -- he'll run way behind Kemp.

If Oz somehow pulls it out then it's up to Ohio and Nevada.

In Ohio, I have to give Ryan credit for running a campaign where he literally has not said the word "Democrat" once in his ads. Not once. He has said he agrees with Trump way more often than he has said the word Democrat. It's astounding. He's effectively trying to run as an Indepedent. I still think Vance wins but it'll be close.

Nevada seems to be toss up to R+1 or 2. If it stays that way, I'd say Laxalt wins. I don't think polling has magically changed to favor Rs or even be neutral, although, Nevada polling has proven mostly accurate (as opposed, to say, Georgia or NC or SC...)

[Dr. Strangelove]

I thought the R's were dumping a whole bunch of money into Vance's campaign but I still see Tim Ryan ads way more than his

[Dr. Strangelove]

Minor quibble...I think the polling in Georgia and Sun Belt in general has been more reliable than the Midwest. Pollsters seem to have particular trouble reaching non-college whites and estimating the proportion of the electorate they will make up.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Some great Russian Baghdad Bob stuff here

”We have completely destroyed the Ukra-Nazis and to go forward we now retreat!”

[CGVT]

When I look around and see Vance, Oz and Walker, it's disheartening that the Rs gave away at leas 2 of 3 Senate seats. Then again, Mandela Barnes a fucking clownshow awful candidate, and the Ds had a real shot to win in Wisconsin. So, things could be worse, I guess.

Don't be so sure that Walker is going to lose. You are talking about the same voters that elected Majorie Taylor Green. Even with the fact that Walker is a brain dead moron, he is still holding his own. It is going to be very close

[DaGeezer]

It’s definitely a fireable offense. Depending on the identity of the leaker I’m not sure any particular crime was committed though. Supreme Court drafts aren’t considered classified info as far as I know. It’s more a breach of trust.

It is not a firable offense if a SC Justice was the one who leaked the document. This is not like Snowden, for example. There were very few people who had access to that document, or at least that is what I'm told. Roberts is, above all, a defender of the SC's reputation. IF a Justice did leak it, Roberts may well put the institutional reputation of the SC. ahead of "who-done-it"

[DaGeezer]

Huge deal for Syracuse and upstate NY. This is supposed to be even bigger than the plant Intel is building near Columbus

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/pol...7fe-story.html

And now we see Chuckie Schumer's payoff from the CHIPS biii.

[Mike]

Don't be so sure that Walker is going to lose. You are talking about the same voters that elected Majorie Taylor Green. Even with the fact that Walker is a brain dead moron, he is still holding his own. It is going to be very close

He'll definitely win MTJ territory but that's just a rural corner of the state.

[iam416]

Greene wouldn't win statewide. Or even have a chance. Walker will be closer even though he's no more suitable than Greene. Well, I dunno -- would you rather have someone who isn't, ummm, particularly on top of things or someone who has very strong opinions that are outlandish? Whatever. Warnock again is gifted a Senate seat.

Minor quibble...I think the polling in Georgia and Sun Belt in general has been more reliable than the Midwest. Pollsters seem to have particular trouble reaching non-college whites and estimating the proportion of the electorate they will make up.

Well, I mean, I guess. It doesn't make it particularly reliable. Your point re reaching a represenative eletorate is fair, and I'd concur re Midwest issues. But, I still think Georgia was off by a bit in 2020 as was SC and NC -- by a lot.

It's one reason I think Oz is probably closer to Fetterman than the polls show and I why I think Vance wins.

But, rememeber, the NC polls were way off and the SC polls were off by so much that some Ds inexplicably thought they might win Graham's Senate seat there. I mean...JFC.

[iam416]

As far as the House goes, IMO, the polling nationally is giving Ds false hope. In "purple" districts the polling is still really, really bad for the Ds. And overall, if the issue isn't abortion then the issue is either bad or really bad for the Ds. And abortion is fading as an issue. I honestly don't know how 538 has it as only a 70/30 chance the Rs win the House. I mean, I sort of do -- you read the actual non-polling content they produce and the political affiliation is blindingly obvious. But, I assumed they'd still rather be right than partisan. I guess 70/30 gives you cover to say you're right. But, IMO, it's much closer to 95/5 than 70/30.

[Dr. Strangelove]

All 9 justices and probably all of the clerks (another 30-40 people) would have had authorized access to it. Then probably a secretary in each office, some other staffers possible. They all take work home so you have to include all spouses as s suspect, other family, anyone who passed through their homes with any regularity. The number of people starts to add up. The draft was from February and it wasn't leaked until a couple months later. So it could've been floating around in a lot of places.

My point yesterday is that if a Supreme Court Justice or a Clerk leaked it or gave it to someone else to leak, I'm not sure that's a crime. It's probably not. For it to be a crime someone with no normal access would've had to have taken the draft without permission.

The leaker chose to leak to Politico which is an interesting choice. IMO possibly picked to hide their partisan bias. A liberal might be expected to leak to the Post or NY Times, a conservative to Fox or the Washington Examiner.