Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

Dagestan is a republic of the Russian Federation - a reluctant one that Putin has his thumb over the political leadership. However, Chechnya, near by, was crushed when they said they wanted to be free of Russia. So, I'm sure, the guy in that video, after it went viral, got a call from Vlad that wasn't a friendly one.

Dagastan is the country where a few days ago, a guy walked into a Russian army recruitment office and shot the commander in the head. National Gurad troops were sent to Dagastan after that and protesters were threatened with jail and large fines.

Political leadership has been vocally opposed to Russia's, what they claim, is disproportionate conscription of muslim minorities to fight in Ukraine. I'm not sure this is as big of a deal than much smaller protests in big cities such as St. Petersburg. Still, it's indicative of increased social discontent among Russian Federation citizens following Putin's mobilization decree. If the west's reporting is at all correct, that "overwhelming majority" of Russians that support Putin's war in Russia is taking a hit.

Whether this is the start of a movement to unseat Putin among the covert but probably large anti Putin groups is wishful thinking at this point. Russia watchers think he is secure in his presidency by virtue of the last decade of building a force of goons around him that are more concerned with protecting their own self interests, most of which are bestowed by Putin, than the prospects of the loss of said benefits if they get behind any movements to remove him. The Russian intelligentsia elites are basically disinterested in what's going on in Ukraine. When the supermarket shelves become empty of Beluga Caviar then, they might start grumbling. That's a ways off and Putin's propaganda machine inside Russia is pretty good at obfuscating the real shit-storm he's dealing with in Ukraine.

A Russian pollster that normally produces nothing but rosy results for Putin recently had a survey come back showing a slight majority wants the war to end ASAP. The effects of mobilization. There's grumbling in the outer provinces, especially ones with heavy ethnic minority populations, over how they're being ordered to serve as cannon fodder while people in Moscow go about their lives. One of Putin's top propagandists was on air complaining that there hasn't been a victory in Ukraine in weeks and weeks. Nothing but retreats. And I've seen complaining from his DNR puppets that while Ukraine continues to advance and retake territory, the Kremlin is holding a congratulatory party today.

All this isn't to say Putin's teetering but there is WAY more grumbling out there than at the height of summer.

[Jeff Buchanan]

BBC reports Putin just made the annexation announcement accompanied by pleas to Russians to support the operation in Ukraine and know what we are fighting for. He alleges in his speech NATO wants to break up Russia.

Lots of shit going on in Eastern Euope that is impactful. Ill summarize, well you know how that goes, later.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Thus far the speech devoted very brief remarks upfront on how those four provinces are now Russia before Putin went into a spiel about the decadent, evil West and the Great Satan, the United States. It's been much more about his grievances with the USA than anything to do with Ukraine.

[THE_WIZARD_]

....it's the end of the world as we know it...

[lineygoblue]

Not sure how annexing neighborhoods in Ukraine helps him destroy the US, .. but oh well.

[Dr. Strangelove]

[Jeff Buchanan]

If it weren't an effective play - it worked in Crimea in 2017 - it would be Baghdad Bob funny.

This time around he's facing effective military resistance albeit a US/NATO (sorta) supported proxy force carrying it out.

If his army weren't so seriously degraded, he might find defending this new part of Russia easier. It won't be easy without actually deploying a tactical nuke. I think the chance of that went up today.

The west, at this point, can only realistically condemn it. A security council resolution doing that is set for a vote. Will China - taking its stance that UN members should respect national boarders - abstain or support it. India's stance? Indicators but that's about it.

[Da Geezer]

still say we had the most to gain from that pipeline sabatoge and really were the only ones that could have pulled something like that off in 4 separate locations undetected--we had a fairly big presence ce there earlier in the month . Have to believe russia would sabotage their own moneymaker--all they need to do is shut it off from there end--why blow up something that brings you millions a year from germany/europe If ukraine did it they did it with our immense help. very doubtful any greenies could pull something off like that. Nato has gotta be pissed if it comes out we had anything to do with sabotaging that pipeline

Here is what the Chairman said in Feb of 2022, weeks before the Russian invasion:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVbEoZXhCrM

I honestly don't understand what we gain by destroying such a massive capital project.

Although I don't know how deep the pipeline is in the sea, I do not doubt that Greenies could pull that off. But if they were found out that would damage their movement.

EDIT:
I've been thinking about it a bit, and I could see the US or Poland doing it if Germany had some secret deal with Russia to keep getting gas from Russia, but not letting the rest of Europe know. It is not like the Germans have not done something like that before. Toward the end of this video, look at how the Germans act:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKEycjREgPE

[Dr. Strangelove]

I heard the pipeline was only around 50M deep at the point they were sabotaged. So that's shallow enough that military-trained divers could reach it. Wouldn't need a sub

[THE_WIZARD_]

I need a sub. Turkey and pepperjack cheese on Italian bread...extra mayo...

[Jeff Buchanan]

Today, as a result of Putin's annexation of 4 provinces within Ukraine and the "bellicose" 37 minute speech he made before a large crowd in Moscow celebrating the signing of annexation documents, the press is characterizing the speech as unprecedented in its pointed verbal assault on the US. The speech and his actions in Ukraine are considered to be a major escalation of the conflict.

It's important to understand that the verbal attack on western institutions and the US, even though it was blunt this time, is nothing new. The speech reflected Putin's longstanding position that the status and rights of world powers that emerged following the defeat of Germany in 1945. with the US at the power center, has failed global citizens. He has, in the past, ripped US neo-colonialism painting it as harmful to world peace. He continues that rhetoric in his speech today. He continues to pursue political objectives to return the Russian Federation, as he sees it, to one of the world's great powers. These great powers he says, rise from a historical account of sovereign states over centuries where the US is a relative newcomer that gained access to it's global power status by it's harmful colonial policies.

So, what is the role of the UN in all of this? First, recognize that Putin views the UN and its position on the Security Council as a global stage on which he furthers Russia's own interests. He has little interest in getting aboard with UN Charter concepts. When he's accused of violating them as a member state of the UN, he could care less. He routinely rejects UNSC resolutions critical of its failures to comply with the rules of the UN Charter through RUssian's veto power. RUssia wields its veto power on any resolutions that question it's action as a means to argue for change to the current world order and rules that have evolved over the last 80 years. That order, led and enforced primarily by the US, Putin believes is inherently evil. Second, recognize without the cooperation of its members and their submission to the rule making bodies designed to protect and insure the current world order and applicable international law, the UN is powerless to prevent a world leader from doing whatever he wants. That's where we are.

Putin's argument is well received by many as the US has difficulty arguing, since the early days of fora designed to promote world peace and human rights, it is a beacon of those concepts. Keep in mind, although here in the west, particularly in the US, we view Putin's actions in Ukraine as in violation of the global standards of peace, security and international laws. While we see Putin as a brutal aggressor lawlessly seizing Ukrainian land by force of arms, a large part of the world's people buy Putin's arguments of inappropriate US and western hegemony. If the world order is improperly established by evil, neocolonialist western powers, then all it's standards for peace, security and order are invalid. Therefore, Putin need not comply with or be held accountable for violating said standards.

IMO, the west is in a bit of shit-sandwich dealing with an aggressor bent on establishing his country as one of the world's great powers who does not accept the world order and it's international laws as the have evolved over time. There really is no historical precedent for this sort of thing. Adolph Hitler's Nazi Germany and it's aggression in the late 30s or Tojo's Imperial Japanese aggression in the far east, doesn't fit neatly into a characterization of what Putin is undertaking. Both leaders were autocratic authoritarians - some say fascist nationalists - so there is that similarity. Past that, not much is similar.

Nevertheless, it we are on the side of keeping the social liberal and democratic world order as it stands today, and I am, then short of a collectively organized western military response through NATO, possibly with the approval of the UNSC through a resolution authorizing the use of force, Putin is bent on obtaining it and is going to have his way in Ukraine. If the west is counting on the collapse of his regime facilitated by the outright defeat of his military forces in Ukraine, that isn't going to happen. He can potentially be forced to negotiate but that is going to take as close to a military victory by Ukraine over his forces there that is realistically unachievable. A combination of economic pain and mounting military losses might work but it won't be quick and I"m not holding my breath for that to happen.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Early Christmas present for ya DSL...

[Da Geezer]

Wiz: No wonder UNL is having a bad season with players like this:

https://www.theblaze.com/news/nebraska-punter-reportedly-caves-to-pressure-deletes-tweet-supporting-presumptive-new-italian-prime-minister

[THE_WIZARD_]

STFU

[Dr. Strangelove]