Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Da Geezer]

Putin may be thinking long-term he can outlast the West, and he's possibly right, but a lot of the stuff I read suggests the actual execution of the war is almost completely short-term thinking. There's virtually no strategy. He's just fired another round of Generals and he personally interferes with the military constantly, issuing direct orders.

The Russian Far Right flipped out over the past 24 hours that Putin traded 200 Azov Battalion POWs, including some commander, just to get a Ukrainian buddy of his returned.

He can force people to the front and try to overwhelm Ukraine with sheer numbers but they'll be poorly trained and poorly equipped. Every man he takes out of a factory to go die in a Donetsk minefield is one less man to make steel or weapons. Early on the mobilization looks like you might expect. They're going to squeeze every last drop out of the more rural, ethnically non-Russian regions like Dagestan and Chechnya before turning to the two big cities.

I heard an "expert" on CNBC this morning make a good case that the Ukraine War has had a significant impact on China's view of conquering Taiwan. He said that, before the war, China considered whether the US would get actively involved to be their main consideration. Now they are seeing what a determined population can do with what he claimed was not an overwhelmingly superior cyber capability. He felt Taiwan could do to china what Ukraine is doing to Russia.

Any reaction to that JB?

[Mike]

Yeah, he lives in O'Callahan County. Get it right.

[THE_WIZARD_]

:::kills Mike::::

[Dr. Strangelove]

I heard an "expert" on CNBC this morning make a good case that the Ukraine War has had a significant impact on China's view of conquering Taiwan. He said that, before the war, China considered whether the US would get actively involved to be their main consideration. Now they are seeing what a determined population can do with what he claimed was not an overwhelmingly superior cyber capability. He felt Taiwan could do to china what Ukraine is doing to Russia.

Any reaction to that JB?

I wish I could refind the post but a week or two ago I read a lengthy thread that was a cynical take but it dealt with US weapons vs. Russian ones. This war is potentially doing harm to Russia's future arms sales around the world because they are using what's considered their "good stuff" against our gear that's one or two generations old. I saw a clip of Russian state tv yesterday where a pundit was complaining that they were told that Russian drones were top of the line and it turns out they're crap.

China's aware Taiwan probably has anything we've given to Ukraine or better.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Lovin this special master...now he's giving Trump till next Friday to provide proof to back up his accusations that the FBI planted evidence.

Mar-a-Lago special master orders Trump team to back up any claims of FBI 'planting' evidence - CNNPolitics

[Jeff Buchanan]

On Geezer's question, I'd add this consideration to the CNN take. China has demonstrated just recently following the Pelosi visit to Taiwan, how a naval blockade of the Island nation might serve there purposes without invading.

Russia, it appears to me, is playing the long game in a similar way that China would play a naval blockade to force the capitulation of the Taiwanese government

The cyber-war capabilities of either combatant is, for the most part, a tactical plus up, or down in combat power. It's hard to judge in advance, how that would go because those capabilities are protected by security classication. My sense is that western arms and war fighting capabilities, across the board, are considerably better than Russia's and possibly China's. Both countries have numbers advantages but we've seen the crap Russia has fielded in Ukraine in terms of equipment and the poor leadership and readiness of their armed forces. China likely has similar problems by virtue of how defense industries are run in China and Russia and rigid command structures being part and parcel of both country's armed services.

[froot loops]

One of the things that has occurred to me in trying to understand how Putin is formulating a strategy in Ukraine is the context in which he might be doing it.

His long term approach to global politics that advances his country's interests is to create western instability and discord. His invasion of Ukraine viewed in that context is a single battle in a larger war v. western hegemony. Putin, among other authoritarians, seek a multipolar global order that replaces the current unipolar one with the US the central player on the global stage.

I think its important to understand that Putin cares nothing about the costs to Russia or Ukraine in pursuit of his larger strategy. He believes, in the long run he is prepared to endure, the costs to the west will far exceed the costs to Russia. Seeing the conflict in that light renders the tactical back and forth in the battle space subordinated to economic and political chaos his invasion of ukraine creates in the west and particularly in the US.

I can argue Putin is playing a winning hand overall, not a loosing one that the western press shortsightedly seems determined to portray it as. This position may be giving too much credit to Putin and underestimates the problems he faces going forward. It's too early to confidently predict that either position is 100% the correct one.

I think you are reading too much into the Vladimir Putin as a three dimensional chess player. The Ukraine issue has been a bugaboo for a long time, he considers it Russia and has considered invading it probably since he assumed power. You have to think about it through the prism of most autocrats. They are interested in consolidating power to stay in power, that's his main long term view. To consolidate power you crush dissenting voices like the media and your political opponents. It's a great strategy to stay in power, but you become surrounded with yes men who can't tell you the military is corrupt and atrophied.

He's getting old and impulsively invaded a country with no real plan because he bought his own BS that Ukraine was a pushover.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Froot, he's been in an unassailable, strong position within Russia for a decade. It took him that long to, as you say, to crush dissent and establish population control through the FSB and Rosgavardia so, that's established. What is not established is, what he beliefs, is Russia's return as a great empire and Russia's place in determining, nay dictating, global outcomes. To establish that, a return to a multipolar world, not the current unipolar one dominated by the US, is required. Weakening the US is keyy to that grand strategy.

Your view, IMO, is too narrow and misses that Putin is, indeed, a grand strategist with the intellect and the resources to reestablish the Russian empire, notwithstanding the west standing against that strategy. Historically, the power of Russia, flows through Ukraine. In fact, all the great empires of Europe became that through the conquest and control of Ukraine. It's like the board game Stratego. Win that territory, claim it with your game pieces and you win.

[froot loops]

He has only been weakening Russia with this invasion, grand strategists don't invade with such a bad game plan.

[Jeff Buchanan]

He has only been weakening Russia with this invasion, grand strategists don't invade with such a bad game plan.

That remains to be seen (IMO). From a purely military analysis standpoint, he's seeing the Russian armed forces being exposed. Their equipment appears inferior to that of the west, their military leadership sucks and morale of their fighting force is in the gutter. I'm a proponent of the notion that boots on the ground and the requirement to secure territory wins wars but that is because I have a historical bias in that position and my understanding of the history of warfare is baked in. But, I'm old. My ideas of what works and what may not work at the strategic level may be antiquated.

We're seeing an unconventional use of a combination of nuclear saber rattling and weaponizing energy anf food supplies in an unprecedented new chapter of grand strategy using economic warfare to achieve political endpoints. I'm not prepared to abandon the idea that nations have to win ground, air and sea battles at the tactical level, obtain air superiority over the battle space, win key territory and then hold it with boots on the ground. But, I think we need to realize that using force, predominantly military in the past, to achieve political objectives may be achieved by different means. I think Putin knows this and is applying it. Like I said, he may not care that his military is getting pantsed or a few thousand Russian citizens are conducting anti-war protests. That's just the cost of obtaining his strategic objectives.

[THE_WIZARD_]

...

[Tom W]

My sense is that western arms and war fighting capabilities, across the board, are considerably better than Russia's and possibly China's. Both countries have numbers advantages but we've seen the crap Russia has fielded in Ukraine in terms of equipment and the poor leadership and readiness of their armed forces. China likely has similar problems by virtue of how defense industries are run in China and Russia and rigid command structures being part and parcel of both country's armed services.

Based on the observations, at least until recently, that a large percentage of Chinese weapons are knockoff Russian designs and seeing the quality of some of their automotive parts, I would think that their problems would be even worse than Russia's.

[Obi-Jon]

It depends on the product. Small arms quality is good to very good, but can't speak from experience to larger arms. NORINCO, the largest of the production companies of the PLA, manufactures a huge range of military weapons, mostly of Russian original design. It seems that arms such as artillery is given as aid, not purchased, which can imply a lesser quality than small arms which are readily sold. Good quality comes with a price, meh is given away. The Chinese have knocked off for internal consumption the Russian AK-74 series. Limited production of the newer 100 and 200 series has been seen, but the improvements have been functional, not durational in nature. And they aren't exported by China. Russia exports the AK-200 series in limited numbers.

Given that Russia is looking to NoKo for artillery shells, I'd say its the old Russian crap, or the Chinese knock off versions, that the orcs are using. Looks like the very limited supply of new stuff has been, and will continue to be, held back. Its just no match for what the Ukrainians have been given..

[Da Geezer]

Department of Labor internal lawyers announce that there was $ 45,600,000,000 in UNEMPLOYMENT fraud committed under the Covid relief packages.

Previous estimates were $ 16 Billion.

What a surprise.

[THE_WIZARD_]

:::shocking:::