Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Obi-Jon]

Crimea is the nuclear threshold. Russia will never give up its naval facilities there. Never.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Crimea is the nuclear threshold. Russia will never give up its naval facilities there. Never.

I think this is a reasoable position. What we don't know and won't know is this. Let's say that map I posted above that purportedly was a leaked Ukrainian counter-offensive plan, actually happens.... and with black operational support from NATO. I understand times and circumstances are different but there is a historical precedent for Russian nuclear saber rattling during the Cuban missil crisis that, we only learend recently, got stuffed by JFK's very personal, back channle threats of nuclear retaliation if Krushchev didn't get his nuclear capbable ICBMs off Cuban soil.

I would not want a scenario like this to develop because the risk of miscalculation by nuclear powers in the west and east would be high. But, I feel confident such scenarios are being discussed. Kruschchev, not an intellecutual giant, got browbeaten and outwitted by JFK. He knew his own capability to survive a nuclear exchange was unlikely. Putin, while he's bright, is unlikely to believe his Russia of 2022 could withstand a nuclear exchange of an intercontinental type, or especially one that involved tactical nukes and conventional NATO forces confined to Ukraine. Although he may not have the full picture of how ill-prepared his forces have demonstrably shown they are in Ukraine, his KGB background undoubtedly would contribute to his knowing, by connection to insiders who he is talking to, providing him a clearer picture of what a disater his forray into Ukraine has become. The public face and scripted pronouncements of Shoigu and his cronies of yes men inside the Russian MoD is what Putin wants in the public domain. Behind closed doors, he's probably getting an accurate picture from inside the Ukrinian battle space - it's not good.

Therefore, it is not inconceivable that a similar approach to nuclear armagedon could develop over Ukraine if Ukrainian forces were to threaten the Russian occupation of Crimea causing Putin to threaten the use of nukes. At the same time, back channel threats for retaliation in kind form the west could cause him to withdraw. He has to know that he cannot win a confrontation at any level with NATO and that would be to the West's advantage.

[THE_WIZARD_]

....

[Hannibal]

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[THE_WIZARD_]

BUILD BACK BETTER!

[Dr. Strangelove]

This asshat "expert", ex-Colonel Douglas MacGregor, is a favorite of the Putin-loving Alt Right and Tucker Carlson in particular. In the first clip from Friday he declared that Ukraine would be beaten very soon and that the war in Kharkiv was going "very badly for them". That's in contrast to virtually all reporting that the Russians are getting their asses kicked.

The second clip is the great expert Col. MacGregor on Stuart Varney's Fox show from March 5, 2022, predicting that Russia would overrun and conquer Ukraine within 10 days.

This guy's a pathetic joke.

[Jeff Buchanan]

These toadies are an extension of the Kremlin's propoganda machine either with intention because they are being paid (journalists were contacted by Kremlin officials at the start of Putin's invasion asking them to provide positive reports of Russian successes, franing as a global battle v. western hedgemony, with a promise to pay for them) or as a means to stimulate Fox viewership with popular doomsday reporting. Kremlin propagandists have pushed an alternate reality and foisted it on the Russian populace inside Russia and Russian diaspora living abroad since February 28th. Similar lines from the Kremlin reach the rather large number of countries that either support Russia's operations in Ukraine or are neutral choosing not to join in on western sanction protocols. It's sphisticated shit and in large measure it has been working.

Before the Ukrainian successes within the Kharkiv province, Kremlin propagandists controlled the information space with a spophisticated and successful approach that exagerated Russian successes and Ukrainian failures. Social media milbloggers megaphoned this line ..... until 48h ago when frustrated Russian nationalists started blasting the Russian MoD and Defense Secretary Shoigu. The bad press is starting to spill over into increased public awareness of the Russian military's failures in Ukraine. Will this touch Putin? Probably not.

Putin appears to be allowing this line of social media posting (Telegram which has remained open and active despite the closures of FB and Twitter) as a means of deflecting responsibility for setting what are turning out to be unachievable goals in Ukraine and his meddling as things started going to shit. In recent days there is evidence Putin is noticeably distancing himself from his own MoD as indicated by the cancellation of all his usual meetings with officials there including Shoigu.

It was reported yesteray and again today that western sources helped the Ukrainians develop and implement Psyops to attempt to counter the Kremlin's propaganda. Details are scarce but they involve social media campaigns and delivering phamplets outlining the failures of Russian forces counterposed with the successes of Ukrainian fores. The target audiance is Ukrainins who have colaborated with the occupying Russians and Russian soldiers. The phamplets ar reportedly being delivered by rockets and shells specifically designed to air burst and spread the phamplets widely in the target area. Cool stuff.

[Jeff Buchanan]

In the battle space according to ISW's most recent threat report the scope of Ukrainian success is stunning but all parties are warning that none of this is going to end the war. What it does do on the political front is to cement western resolve to continue to support the Zelenski government in Kiev and hang tough over the winter months as Putin strangulates LNG flow from Russia into Germany (Nordstream) and from there distribution points within the EU. It's not going to be easy with the EU trying to find concensus on managing shortages in an equitible way for countries that use and buy enrgy resources in widely different ways and amounts. Further, it presents Putin with the difficult choice of continuing the "special military operation" narrative with all it's baseless causis belli claims as the Russian public learns the facts and necessarily implementing a draft to recoup personnel losses which Putin has so far not undertaken fearing it would stir dissent.

ISW notes that the loudly announced counter-offensive in the Kherson province was and is now much more than a feint. Large swaths of Russian occupied, pre 02/28/22 Ukrainian territory is being recaptured as the Russian forces there, well dug in to defensive postions are running out of supplies thanks to Ukrainian targeting of GLOC (bridges) and supply depots deep in Russian rear areas. It appears to be a slower operation in comparison to the lightning offensive in and around Kharkiv and Izyum, It is nonethelss important to Ukrain's strategic goals - get Russia, facing impaired C&C and logistics supporty, to withdraw to pre 02/28/22 lines and possibly to get them back behind and to the east of pre-2014 boarders to include driving them from Crimea. The later is a monumental task probably out of reach short term (into early 2023) but potentially achievable over the long term by making it impossible for the Kremlin to manage the sustained defense of Crimea and what they claimed only recently the independent republics of Donetsk (the DNR) and Luhansk (LNR) - Russain legal control of these "republics" unrecognized by any global body that deals in thse kinds of legal matters.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Who cares. Let them kill each other.

[JRB]

Greetings from Paris, where the food is still excellent and the customer service is still...variable.

[iam416]

I thought air felt a little a cleaner in this fair country. Now if we can only shovel Alabm"Alum" off to Peatland and Buchanan to a cruise then we'd really be cooking with gas. Oh yeah, and firebomb North Platte.

[Hannibal]

This asshat "expert", ex-Colonel Douglas MacGregor, is a favorite of the Putin-loving Alt Right and Tucker Carlson in particular. In the first clip from Friday he declared that Ukraine would be beaten very soon and that the war in Kharkiv was going "very badly for them". That's in contrast to virtually all reporting that the Russians are getting their asses kicked.

The second clip is the great expert Col. MacGregor on Stuart Varney's Fox show from March 5, 2022, predicting that Russia would overrun and conquer Ukraine within 10 days.

This guy's a pathetic joke.

We shouldn't be giving the Ukraine another dime -- but it's too bad that clowns like this muck up the debate.

[Hannibal]

A pretty credible looking poll (shows Dewine up +15) has Tim Ryan with a one point lead. Potential disaster shaping up in Ohio. Tim Ryan is running a really good campaign. if he fools enough people into thinking that he will be a "moderate" then he can win.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Who cares. Let them kill each other.......We shouldn't be giving the Ukraine another dime.

I can make a credible case we that we should care and continue to support Ukraine with both arms andmoney.

The war there has been correctly framed as battle between a world shaped by it's authoritarians v. one shaped by its democracies. There's a lot to the details of each of these governing modes. I'll be happy to get into them if those opposed to western support of the Zelenski government in Ukraine woouid like to argue otherwise. Putin's ojectives are clearly intended to eliminate Ukrainian culture and its people with the killing of civilians, Holocost like "filtering" and removal to Russian soil of it's population and brutal destruction of the country's infrastructure.

[Hannibal]

Jeff -- I'm sorry, but that's just insane. The Ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries in Europe if not the most corrupt. Zelensky is not the "good guy". I guarantee you that a good portion of that money that we are giving them is ending up in the pockets of Ukrainian bureaucrats, and not being used for weapons or humanitarian aid. I don't know where you are getting the information that Putin is out to genocide the Ukrainian people. Best I can tell -- he wants a non-NATO buffer state. That's it. He is indifferent to the suffering that he is causing, but that doesn't mean that death and suffering are his specific goals.

And we're doing this at a time when the country's Southern border is a sieve, violent crime is spiraling out of control, our economy is in recession, and inflation is still hovering at or near 42 year highs. This "Team America, World Police" bullshit has to end. Yes, cruelty exists in other parts of the world. We can't stop it.