Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Mike]

DeSantis 2024. Oh, and 2028.

[Hannibal]

[Obi-Jon]

Cheney is running an ad starring her dad who calls out djt. Wyoming is such a mystery. Liz has like a 96% conservative voting record, even better when it comes to to ag and livestock related votes, puts country over party, and understands Russia tries to mess with EVERY US election. Yet they primary Liz with a Trumpian scrotum sucker with "hoax" and "big lie" hallucinations. How does an anti conservative pro Trump cult take widespread hold of states like Wyoming?

[Dr. Strangelove]

So Sinema is a yes and the price for her vote was to eliminate the tax on carried interest. Joe & Andrew were talking about this on Squawk Box this morning. That tax would've impacted virtually no one in Arizona, her actual constituents. But there's a some rich people who live in New York, or Connecticut, or New Jersey that would have to pay more taxes.

[Dr. Strangelove]

528K jobs created, basically double predictions. June and May's numbers also revised upwards. Unemployment fell to 3.5%. One negative is labor force participation ticked down a little.

Consensus view is Fed raises rates at least another 100 basis points this year.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Unemployment claims are up...did you conveniently omit that? Inflation still record high...Bueller? Bueller? Borders still not secured...record crime...but a few more burger flippers are being hired...

[froot loops]

[Dr. Strangelove]

The downside of the really good jobs report does mean reversing inflation is going to be harder and take more time. Another 75 point hike is probably on the table again in September and the market thought we were past hikes that big.

FWIW, Elon Musk thinks inflation has peaked and says his commodity costs are falling

Elon Musk Says Inflation Will Fall. That Bet Has Helped Tesla’s Stock Soar 45% Since June (wsj.com)

[froot loops]

There are still a lot of supply chain issues. I took my daughter's car into the shop at the beginning of July and the module they needed to fix the transmission was two months away, called for an update last week and they are looking at Christmas now to get it.

I've been working on stuff in China and if I need someone on site to do something it is hard because of their continued lockdowns.

[Dr. Strangelove]

It'd require some research but I don't know that we've ever had a recession where GDP shrunk two quarters but unemployment fell and the number of jobs rose significantly during those same two quarters. By the book definition this is a recession but we're in some uncharted territory because things (I believe this is accuarate, but could be wrong) are happening in the opposite order they usually take place.

I believe unemployment usually goes up either before GDP starts to shrink or at worst they move together. During the financial crisis, unemployment started to rise in the middle of 2007 but all 4 quarters of 2007 were positive for GDP. Unemployment went from 4.4% in May 2007 to over 6% by August 2008. But the recession officially didn't start until the 4th quarter of 2008 (two negative quarters in a row)

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data (bls.gov)

[iam416]

The killer is inflation. I mean, whether it's transitory, the fault of Big ___, the fault of Putin or just the fault of boneheaded helicopter money idiocy, the problem is the real value of wages and goods.

Now, I find it utterly hilarious that The Chairman has decided to redefine recession so we're not in one, but I'm also sympathetic to looking at all factors. And certainly low unemployment is great. GDP output and the really significant inflation is not. Whether that qualifies as a recession or not, I dunno. What I do THINK is that you can't label good times bad and bad times good and just expect voters to be like, "oh, yeah, things are really____". Voters are feeling it in their lived experience. And that's what's going to count.

I do think that at the end of the day, The Chairman's -- and the D's -- willingness to flood an economy getting ready to blast off with $1.9T or whatever was a massive policy failure. Massive. We were never in a real recession or real downturn -- we were in a Covid-related and, in part, self-created downturn. But all of the fundamentals and such were sound. It was just a matter of time of getting past some of the Covid-related issues and idiocy and getting back to business as usual. The Chairman and the Ds treated it as REAL recession. It was not. And they fucked it up.

[Tom W]

There are still a lot of supply chain issues. I took my daughter's car into the shop at the beginning of July and the module they needed to fix the transmission was two months away, called for an update last week and they are looking at Christmas now to get it.

I've been working on stuff in China and if I need someone on site to do something it is hard because of their continued lockdowns.

Yeah, that's pretty widespread across the board. It's kinda funny that I live about 4 miles from Ford's part distribution center, yet our Escape has been in the shop since March due to one part not being available. That's what dealing with China has gotten us- besides Covid and all.

[lineygoblue]

Good luck getting car parts. My son had to have his transmission replaced in his Ford Explorer. Kudos to Ford Motor Company who gave him a break on the price, but it took the Ford dealer 7 weeks to get the new replacement tranny. The service agent who handled his repair told him "that was quick".

The dial-a-ride company I work for ordered 3 new buses over a year ago, to replace 3 aging rattle traps from our fleet. They are made by Ford. The buses actually have been built, but they are sitting in a distribution yard somewhere near Baltimore, waiting for computer chips. Ford told our director that they have no idea when they will be able to deliver the buses to us. At the last update, Ford said it could be another year.

Some here may remember that I mentioned we had an explosion at our maintenance garage back in March, which destroyed it. The insurance company finally approved funds to clear the rubble and prepare the site, but we've been told they have no idea when the new garage can be built. Seems a far eastern country has been buying all the American steel they can get their hands on, and there's none available for the new steel beams that we need for our new building.

Then, back in June, thieves broke into our lot, and stole 20 catalytic converters off our buses, putting us out of business for nearly a month. About 10 days ago, Ford Motor Company found 10 new converters and shipped them to us so we could partially get back on the road. They don't know when they can deliver the others. Us drivers are slip-seating in order to take care of our passengers.

But at least the mean tweets are gone, and burger flipping jobs are getting filled. And when the rubber hits the road, Manchin and Sinema are Democrats, thru and thru. Any idea that they think for themselves is out the window.

[Dr. Strangelove]

I have to say, this staying in isolation inside the White House thing is working out fairly well for ol' Brandon. Kinda like Ike or Reagan in their later years.

[Tom W]

But at least the mean tweets are gone, and burger flipping jobs are getting filled. And when the rubber hits the road, Manchin and Sinema are Democrats, thru and thru. Any idea that they think for themselves is out the window.

It's really great that those burger flippers are now making a "living wage". Mind not that "crazy" is the new norm.

Miller High Life/Deliver Guy: Bistro - YouTube