Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Hannibal]

Can't make this up...Kari Lake surged into the lead after a huge batch of votes were counted for her in Maricopa in the middle of the night.

Republicans richly deserve to have a long, drawn-out fight with their two hags beating each other up over allegations of fraud, and machines switching votes, and Chinese bamboo ballots, and George Soros-bought pens.

if those votes were counted in the same circumstances as the mysterious 3 AM vote dumps for Joe Biden, then unlike our enemies, I'm perfectly willing to admit that there are likely shenanigans involved.

[Obi-Jon]

CONSPIRACY!!!!!!VOTER FRAUD!!!!!!!JEWISH SPACE LASERS!!!!!!

[Dr. Strangelove]

There's no state in the country that is ever completely done counting, with no revisions to come, by midnight Election Day. Not even in Florida, which has had tons of mail-in voting, and has one of the best systems in the country. But not even they are 100% done within hours. Usually enough is counted to call all the races but things are still getting adjusted for weeks after the fact. That's why certification always happens a full month after the Election.

Arizona has voted primarily by mail for decades. Every race in Arizona has been called except for the Lake-Robson one I believe.

Here's what left to count.

Any mail-in ballots returned by Monday have already been counted. Any in person Election Day votes have already been counted. What's NOT been counted are mail-in ballots dropped off in person on Election Day. Arizona does not count ballots received after polls close.

2022 Election: How Maricopa County tabulates votes (fox10phoenix.com)

[Hannibal]

Most states are at 99% counted by midnight on election day. Or at least they used to be. That includes Arizona. Legtimately "too close to call' elections with 99% of the vote tabulated are rare. If we're regularly counting 60-80% of the votes on election night then even five point races will be "too close to call" for days until mail-in ballots slowly trickle in. This is totally unnecessary.

As recently as 2018 Arizona was able to count about 99% of their votes on election night. There has been a big shift since 2020 towards mail-ins and an extended counting period that is going to make close elections ugly and lawsuit-ridden from now on unless the laws governing those elections are changed.

[froot loops]

This guy needs to concede just like Trump needed to concede when it was obviously over, it's over and he lost. He is going to trial as an insurrectionist and he still couldn't get Daddy Trump's endorsement.

[Dr. Strangelove]

This guy needs to concede just like Trump needed to concede when it was obviously over, it's over and he lost. He is going to trial as an insurrectionist and he still couldn't get Daddy Trump's endorsement.

Likely another grifter desperate to keep the cash flowing into his campaign aka legal defense fund

But there’s starting to be too many little piggies trying to eat out of the same trough. So many that even Charlie Kirk was complaining about it recently.

[Da Geezer]

Well obviously the strategy of the anti-abortion crowd in red states will not become "we must respect the voice of the people". It will become "stop allowing the public to vote directly on the issue".

Get a Republican majority in place, ban abortion, and then dare the public to vote for Dems. It's likely correct that if you allow abortion to be voted on independently of everything else, the pro-choice side can win even in a place like Kansas. That's why from the pro-life perspective it's necessary to bundle everything together. Don't allow them an option of a single-issue vote like tonight.

Dems will attempt to force referenda onto the ballot and red states will adopt tougher measures to qualify for the ballot.

One caveat on making any grand interpretations though...the wording of the issue, like so many issue votes, was confusing. Quite possible thousands voted for something they didn't understand.

I'd also point out that inertia is one of the most powerful forces in politics. People know what they have and are generally loathe to change. When Obamacare was passed, there were lots of folks who hated it because it made them buy new and different policies on the exchanges. I believe, now, if you were to propose a new form of health insurance nationally, people would be against it too.

I'd also like to know if Kansas has abortion on demand. Said differently, what is the status quo there?

[iam416]

Well obviously the strategy of the anti-abortion crowd in red states will not become "we must respect the voice of the people". It will become "stop allowing the public to vote directly on the issue".

We'll see how that works in Ohio. And, of course, the obvious strategy of the pro-baby killing crowd was to stop allowing any vote of any kind anywhere on the issue. An assault on democracy,

So, honestly...LMMFAO at some kill me some babies dude complaining that the Rs might limit direct democracy (I'd be suprised) and only opt for garden variety representative democracy. The motherfucking horror.

[froot loops]

I wonder why Charlie Kirk isn't naming the biggest culprit. I think calling Trump a DC consultant is a bit of a stretch to be honest.

[Hannibal]

The Kansas ballot issue fiasco should send a loud and clear message to Republicans that they are going to face voter backlash if they overstep their mandates. They would do well to focus on issues that are obvious winners (there is no shortage of those).

[froot loops]

That Kansas ballot measure juiced Democratic turnout, it will be interesting to see how the same kind of measure affects the Michigan polls in November.

[Hannibal]

Re Trump: I stated back in January of 2021 that Trump should have followed Al Gore's example and continue to insist that he was the winner, but accept that he no longer had any legal avenues to pursue, and use it as a rallying point for future elections.

BTW Al Gore, to this day, still insists that he won the 2000 election, despite the complete absence of any evidence of shenanigans or wrongdoings. He failed in his attempts to force in unlawful last second changes in how votes are counted or disqualified and cherry pick Democrat counties in which to recount the votes. Democrats, of course, had no problem with Gore dragging out the election an extra month and tearing the country apart over a clean and fair election that he lost fair and square, albeit very closely.

"It's OK when we do it".

[iam416]

Geezer:

The Kansas Supreme Court held that the Kansas Constitution, through its life, liberty, etc provisions, included a right to abortions up to 22 weeks. Essentially, they read Roe into the State Constitution. The proposed amendment would have removed the right to an abortion completely. So the issue was framed as Roe-type rights vs. zero rights. I'm not surprised it went down.

I think both sides are going to have to acknowledge the the playing field they are on and what they can sustainably pass. So, in Kansas, the burden was the the pro-lifers to convince folks that their alternative to Roe was better. Zero weeks won't cut it. If they had proposed something on the order of 12-15, then I think it passes.

In Ohio, the pro-baby killers will have to come up with an alternative to the 6 weeks currerntly in place. If they stretch it too far they'll lose. If they sette on 15, I think they win easy.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Democrats should absolutely not assume this means good things for them. Voting yes/no on a single issue in a vacuum is not the same thing as choosing between two candidates which, more often than not, is a "lesser of two evils" decision.

[iam416]

FInally, a quick point the 7th C decision re arson. That's an utterly unsurprising, mundane case. The criminal statute includes the jurisdicitonal hook (affecting ISC). The prosecution has to show that the arson in question affects ISC. The Supreme Court has applied a specific test to this which, more or less breaks down like this -- burning down private homes=NO; burning down stores that traffic in goods and services across state lines=YES. The BLM indictment for arson was for burning down a jewelry story. It's remarkably straight-forward for anyone with a working understanding of our Constitution.

Again, if you can tie abortion to ISC then Congress can regulate it. If you cannot, you cannot. And it's fundamentally a local action.