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Ukraine: The CTR I follow continues to heavily report internal problems involving Russian politics inside the Kremlin and the Russian Army. Protesting inside Russia remains scant but anger among hard liners over strategy, tactics, lack of battlefield success and the slow movement of ground forces toward territorial objectives is growing.. The CTR does not speculate on the impact of this only reports voices critical of the Russian Army and it's leadership are becoming more public and more strident.
Another problem for the Russian Army involves the loss of junior and mid-grade officers. This cohort of leaders has been exhorted by their superiors to go forward and lead from the front to rally Russian momentum. As the Ukrainians got good at picking of Russian generals early in the conflict when they went up front to lead, the same thing is happening to the young officers, the generals, now in the rear, are demanding they go forward. They're getting killed or wounded and put out of action.
The Ukrainian battle space is marked by pronouncements by both sides that a town, village or territorial objective has been captured only to have the other side announce 48h later its recapture. It's not a stalemate. By the Ukrainians holding serve, they are winning the war. The longer this goes on, the more attrition the Russians suffer, the less the motherland is able to resupply the war effort due to sanctions, the better hand the Zelenski government will have at a future negotiating table - and there will be one.
Speaking of sanctions, two related stories: (1) Turkey's Erdogen reportedly got a deal done with Putin allowing grains to be transported out of Ukrainian ports on the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. Details are sketchy. Odesa seems ready to roll but from other ports and whihc ones is unknown. It seems to be unconditional on Putin's part but I suspect there is a secret deal involving concessions to Russia in return for Russia allowing unimpeded transit of grains from ports and through sea lanes previously blockaded. (2) The EU has approved a 6th sanctions package this one overcoming Orban's objections to an oil embargo. There are few details although one thing we know is that Hungary received permission to continue receiving oil from a Russia pipeline that runs through Ukraine and carries most of the oil Hungary consumes. There are other concessions - details unknown - to EU member states heretofore heavily dependent on Russian oil. This may end up being symbolic but even then the symbolism of European unity against Putin's invasion is important.
The numbers are difficult to grasp but from what I can tell EU energy imports from Russia are in the neighborhood of 80% oil, 20% LNG. Russia sells more oil - about 2/3rds of its energy sales - to European countries combined than anyone else - China is next around 1/5th, India not far behind China. Analysts think, in total, Russia will loose about 2/3rds of it's pre-war income from oil sales due to the latest round of sanctions - which also include de-swifting Russia's largest bank, a bigger deal perhaps than the oil embargo. Short term, Putin will be able to find other buyers to replace oil sales to Europe to fund his war but at lower prices than what Europeans were paying. Mid and long term, if the oil sanctions hold and Putin insists on continuing his occupation of the eastern reaches of Ukraine by military means, he will bankrupt Russia.
Another problem for the Russian Army involves the loss of junior and mid-grade officers. This cohort of leaders has been exhorted by their superiors to go forward and lead from the front to rally Russian momentum. As the Ukrainians got good at picking of Russian generals early in the conflict when they went up front to lead, the same thing is happening to the young officers, the generals, now in the rear, are demanding they go forward. They're getting killed or wounded and put out of action.
The Ukrainian battle space is marked by pronouncements by both sides that a town, village or territorial objective has been captured only to have the other side announce 48h later its recapture. It's not a stalemate. By the Ukrainians holding serve, they are winning the war. The longer this goes on, the more attrition the Russians suffer, the less the motherland is able to resupply the war effort due to sanctions, the better hand the Zelenski government will have at a future negotiating table - and there will be one.
Speaking of sanctions, two related stories: (1) Turkey's Erdogen reportedly got a deal done with Putin allowing grains to be transported out of Ukrainian ports on the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. Details are sketchy. Odesa seems ready to roll but from other ports and whihc ones is unknown. It seems to be unconditional on Putin's part but I suspect there is a secret deal involving concessions to Russia in return for Russia allowing unimpeded transit of grains from ports and through sea lanes previously blockaded. (2) The EU has approved a 6th sanctions package this one overcoming Orban's objections to an oil embargo. There are few details although one thing we know is that Hungary received permission to continue receiving oil from a Russia pipeline that runs through Ukraine and carries most of the oil Hungary consumes. There are other concessions - details unknown - to EU member states heretofore heavily dependent on Russian oil. This may end up being symbolic but even then the symbolism of European unity against Putin's invasion is important.
The numbers are difficult to grasp but from what I can tell EU energy imports from Russia are in the neighborhood of 80% oil, 20% LNG. Russia sells more oil - about 2/3rds of its energy sales - to European countries combined than anyone else - China is next around 1/5th, India not far behind China. Analysts think, in total, Russia will loose about 2/3rds of it's pre-war income from oil sales due to the latest round of sanctions - which also include de-swifting Russia's largest bank, a bigger deal perhaps than the oil embargo. Short term, Putin will be able to find other buyers to replace oil sales to Europe to fund his war but at lower prices than what Europeans were paying. Mid and long term, if the oil sanctions hold and Putin insists on continuing his occupation of the eastern reaches of Ukraine by military means, he will bankrupt Russia.
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