Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[THE_WIZARD_]

For AA:

[Jeff Buchanan]

Ukraine: The big news today is the proposed EU embargo of Russian oil that will probably be greenlighted before the end of the week. Hungary and Slovakia will have some carve out exceptions to get them to go along having previously strenuously objected. Since the start of the war, the EU has paid over $43B to Russia for oil and gas - plenty to pay for Russian aggression. The embargo will be phased in and be fully implemented by the end of the year.

On the plus side, some of the technology components the Russians need to build replacements for their more advanced weapons are being impacted by sanctions. The Russians are turning to countries they either have trade alliances with or are friendly to Moscow. Not all of them have the capacity to produce what Russia needs in the quantities demanded by the high expenditure rate of these weapons.

In the last 48 hours the Russian have launched a barrage of missiles - air, sea and land launched - targeting railway power stations among other non-military targets. 21 civilians are reported to have been killed in these attacks. Doctrinally, this sort of thing presages a larger ground offensive but the bombardments are not focused in the east where analysts have portrayed the last 2 weeks as preparations for a major assault on the Donbas front. It's also been noted that Belarus is conducting some kind of troop mobilization which they claim is an annual scheduled exercise. Kharkiv would be a tempting target for Belarus troops and if it were to be seized it would aid the SE axis of attack towards Donbas that has more or less been stymied by Ukrainian forces.

In the SW of Ukraine, Moldova appears to be in Putin's sites and Transnitria - already a breakaway territory that lies N to S on the Ukrainian/Moldovan boarder. The Russian military presence there is scant but it represents another front that Ukraine might have to respond to.

All of this tells me that Putin is intent on having his army occupy Ukraine. I don't think he cares if it takes months or even years to achieve occupation. He certainly does not care about taking losses or killing Ukrainian civilians to terrorize them into submission at some point. My question: Is the west prepared to let Putin do this? It appears they want to stop it but not by military means choosing sanctions and oil embargoes instead to blunt Putin's ability to wage war.

I think it instructive to take reports of Putin's "cautiousness" in this stage of his war plans seriously. My take is that he could be stopped if NATO entered the war - and it's a war. Putin has framed it as one and the facts on the ground suggest it is one taking place between Ukraine and Russia with NATO members in full support of Ukrainian forces. Putin's cautionary approach to offensive operations seems to be based on two factors: (1) He wants to limit his losses and (2) He knows he can't win a conventional engagement with NATO if it engages militarily and has demonstrated a willingness to conduct the affairs of warfare so as not to antagonize and create the background for NATO to enter the war.

Ukraine simply doesn't have the numbers to withstand a war of attrition and Russia seems unpredictably capable of withstanding sanctions, an oil sales ban and concurrently conduct a large scale war in Ukraine. We certainly aren't privy to exactly how much Putin has lost and how much Ukraine has lost. Neither do we know the logistics capabilities of the two sides. We do know, from facts on the ground, the the Russian Army isn't as good as it was cut out to be and that smaller Ukrainian forces are better trained and better equipped than their Russian counterparts. IOW, they're holding up agaisnt superior numbers both in troops, artillery and armor. So, for us, there can be no certainty that NATO military engagement is the best course of action.

I tend to think NATO members have the intel needed to tell them that sitting back until Putin realizes he cannot occupy, then control Ukraine and seeks negotiations not solely on his terms is the best COA. So, I'll stand down on my go for it rhetoric.....at least until after May 9th. If Belarus advances on Kharkiv in a two front war with the Russians advancing into the Donbass with sufficient numbers to establish military and administrative control, I'll change my tune. Does Putin have the numbers to do this?

An older Rand Corp. study by military analyst James Quinlivan concluded that the bare minimum ratio to provide security for the inhabitants of an occupied territory, let alone deal with an active insurgency, is 1:50, that is 1 soldier for every 50 inhabitants. The Donbas territory has just over 4m residents. Russia cannot mount that kind of occupying force. Doubt the rule of thumb? The Allies had 1.6 million troops inside Nazi Germany forcing their surrender and transitioning an offensive army to an occupying one. That was on the order of a 40:1 ratio. The bottom line is that Putin's generals are likely telling him there are not enough Russian soldiers to occupy the Donbas region. That fact is alos the likely underlying reason for the west waiting Putin out.

[Hannibal]

The problem I see is that I believe most of the state laws will be written by the extremists on either end.

That could be the case at first -- Rs in particular, may overplay their hand and execute or at least try to execute on a mandate that they don't have. I do think that there is a substantial contingent of Republicans in places that would switch sides over the issue if abortion were banned entirely. Maybe not huge, but enough to tip state legislatures and governorships in places like Michigan, Arizona, New Hampshire, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida,etc. Maybe even Texas.

The extremes have defined the debate, but up until now the "ban all abortion" end of it did not look feasible. The repeal of Roe vs. Wade will likely change the debate.

[AlabamAlum]

Thanks, Wiz. One of the best things that’s ever happened on SNL was Belushi doing his Cocker impersonation with Cocker and making it a duet.

Think many here are too young to remember.

[CGVT]

The "people" will not decide abortion laws. Gerrymandered state legislatures will decide

[Mike]

Well the "people" voted in the politicians who did the gerrymandering...

[iam416]

Not only that, but most states have sort of direct vote procedure. As I said, in Ohio the people will 100% for sure vote on a Constitutional Amendment re abortion. That will happen in A LOT of states.

But, one thing I know for certain is that Progs never, EVER lose. It's just the system or gerrymandering or voter suppression or propaganda or Putin or Big ___ or whatever.

[Tom W]

But, one thing I know for certain is that Progs never, EVER lose. It's just the system or gerrymandering or voter suppression or propaganda or Putin or Big ___ or whatever.

And if you think that the rhetoric, propaganda, intimidation and scare tactics couldn't any worse than what we've seen since 2016, then, well, there's (more than) a few barrels for of beer that we'll be asked to hold.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Federal Reserve bumps interest rates up 1/2%. Stock market took off northbound within minutes..... gyrating up and down wildly. Feds will unload it's bond holdings starting June 1st.

[CGVT]

I bonds are 9.62% for the next 6 months.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Market ended up over 900 points to close just above 34,000 after taking a 15% loss since January 1st, 2022. There's no telling if this signals a buy. Too much political and geopolitical uncertainty. Too little trust in the feds anti-inflationary positions (too late, IMO) in contrast to the Chairman's enormous spending which is, in part, driving inflation in the US.

As others have pointed out here attempts by the current administration to wrap US inflation up by blaming it on the war in Ukraine and supply chain issues, while part of the problem, those are problems of a lesser degree than the crazy ass spending by both the Trump and more importantly, the Biden administrations.

Fucking own in Joe. We're not stupid out here. Three tacos and two chalupas cost me $22 at Taco Bell the other night!

[Dr. Strangelove]

Some comments from Senator Kevin Cramer. He says his constituents won’t take solace that abortion is banned in his state when they can just go somewhere else and get one. He expects there to be calls for “federal protections”

Putting aside the legality of that, that’s pretty much exactly what I said this morning. There will absolutely be a push to ban or restrict abortion on a national level, successful or not.

[Obi-Jon]

Jeff, you eat at Toxic Hell? WTF is wrong with you? I hear the Ukrainians threaten to force feed Russian POWs Toxic Hell to break them under interrogation.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Actually, Jon, Taco Bell has Mexican food (well, that's a stretch, maybe Texmex) just as good as anything that's served in our nearby Mexican restaurants. It's less expensive, I don't have a margarita (those are costing 10 bucks these days just adding to the tab) and I can carry it home in time to watch Wheel and Jeopardy.

[Da Geezer]

I agree with Hannibal as to where it will settle. Furthermore, most states have a relatively permissive Constitutional amendment process. Ohio does for sure. I 100% guarantee that Ohio will vote on a State Constitutional amendment enshrining, at a minimum, first trimester rights (advocates shouldn't overplay their hand) and it will be a pass/fail popular vote. Pure democracy. And if, as the pro-aboriton side maintains, if this is such a popular option it ought to get 50.1%, even in a solidly red, but not deeply crimson state.

I expect you'll see a lot of this and the laws will generally settle to where in the significant majority of the country -- and ginormous majority by population -- access to aboriton is available for, at a minium, the first 12 weeks.

I'm not at all sure that this will "settle". I think it will remain a contentious issue in the future. But, at least it will be argued in 51 different laboratories rather than imposed by Progs acting from on high.