So what is the solution JB? Boots on the ground? No fly zone?
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IMO Putin WANTS the US to get involved. When/if that happens, he can unleash even more cruelty on Ukraine. The entire motivation for his actions is that NATO is a threat to Russian security, and he needs to control events in Ukraine to make sure that doesn't happen. He'd like nothing more than to see US troops headed for Ukraine, or for the start of US air strikes."in order to lead America you must love America"
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Originally posted by lineygoblue View PostIMO Putin WANTS the US to get involved. When/if that happens, he can unleash even more cruelty on Ukraine. The entire motivation for his actions is that NATO is a threat to Russian security, and he needs to control events in Ukraine to make sure that doesn't happen. He'd like nothing more than to see US troops headed for Ukraine, or for the start of US air strikes.
The second there are boots on the ground from NATO or a no fly zone you are looking at a much increased chance of WW3.2012 Detroit Lions Draft: 1) Cordy Glenn G , 2) Brandon Taylor S, 3) Sean Spence olb, 4) Joe Adams WR/KR, 5) Matt McCants OT, 7a) B.J. Coleman QB 7b) Kewshan Martin WR
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What should have happened 2-3w ago when the Bucha horrors became news and while the Russian Army was in full retreat was a full scale NATO mobilization and a time lined ultimatum for Russian forces to withdraw beyond ukranian boarders and for DNR and LNR separatists to disarm.
The legal basis for the mobilization is the Genocide Conventions of 1995 (bypasses the UNSC requirement for use of military force to stop genocide). NATO can act unilaterally. Each time line that is missed by the Russisns escalates the NATO response.
Maybe starts with a no fly zone over Kiev and Laviv, then Kharkiv then east and so forth. The best time to confront Russion BTGs on the ground was 2w ago. I'll leave the deployment of NATO ground forces to the tacticians.... and you can count on planning for that has been ongoing for months.
Threat of nuclear escalation? Deal with it. I've posted previously about that. Sure, it's a risk but is too heavily factored at present.Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.
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Originally posted by Jeff Buchanan View Post
Threat of nuclear escalation? Deal with it. I've posted previously about that. Sure, it's a risk but is too heavily factored at present.
And what happens when Russia doesn't follow the ultimatum given them (And there is no indication they would do that) by NATO?2012 Detroit Lions Draft: 1) Cordy Glenn G , 2) Brandon Taylor S, 3) Sean Spence olb, 4) Joe Adams WR/KR, 5) Matt McCants OT, 7a) B.J. Coleman QB 7b) Kewshan Martin WR
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First, one has to grounded in the fundamental view that Putin's strategy in Ukraine is to exterminate or terrorize civilian non-combatants in a methodical and puposefull way to achieve Ukranian prostration and surrender. If one is not so grounded, there's no reason to continue a discussion where I'm advocating for the use of force to stop it.
Diplomacy? Sanctions? Putin doesn't reason on that level so, while it's possible he would involve himself meaningfully in peace negotiations he's forced into because of a failing economy and default, the probability is low.
I also think that if he feels he needs a decisive event to achieve his objectives in the face of an economic war he's losing, he'll resort to chemical, biological and nuclear warfare in a stepwise escalating ladder anyway. Our current strategy is just delaying the inevitability of an unconventional exchange between NATO and Russiin forces.Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.
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Here's something that should be kept in mind before we risk all-out WW3 by going full throttle to help our Ukrainian friends: They AREN'T part of NATO, and that membership does have privileges AND obligations. Things just work differently in that part of the world and we shouldn't expect the them to play by the same "good guy" rules as the Brits, Norwegians, Germans or the Poles.
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My advocacy for military intervention as I described above has no relationship to NATO member's obligations. It is based on the provisions of The Genocide Conventions of 1948. This convention was subsequently used to determine that Serbia was in violation of the 1948 Conventions in pursuit of it's military and political objectives in Kosovo. The UN after multiple UNSC Resolutions to force Milosivic to stop the killing of civilians and negotiate a peace deal, failing those, the UN stepped around the UNSC and authorized NATO air operations in Kosovo in 1998-99.
It is crystal clear that Putin is committing genocide in Ukraine. Talking about making him accountable in the international bodies that have already received allegations of genocide from Ukraine is useless and only symbolic. Milosivic wasn't moved by similar UN and court actions in 1988-89 and ultimately was forced to the negotiating table by 11 months of NATO air operations that had as their objective to interdict and destroy Serbian military forces.
My view is that this is what it's going to take to get Putin to stand down. Of course there are risks. Yugoslavia, at the time NATO undertook air strikes in that country, wasn't a nuclear power but was aligned with Russia who would have vetoed any UNSC resolution for military action there. I'm not going to underplay the chance that a NATO engagement with Russian forces would prompt a nuclear exchange. But fundamentally, the world is letting Putin blackmail it with a threat of the threat of using nukes while he deliberately pursues a strategic objective of killing civilian non-combatants and inflicting billions of dollars in damage on non-military Ukrainian infrastructure.
Tom is right when he states "things just work differently in that part of the world......" which is exactly why all the talk and posturing doesn't mean shit to Putin. What he does fear and what would likely force him to the negotiating table is an escalating NATO engagement in Ukraine with the intent of forcing meaningful negotiations. Without that leverage, the genocide will continue unabated and, IMO, irrespective of sanctions and arming the Ukrainian military.
Edit: this is a complete description of how the NATO campaign in the Balkans was authorized and, more interestingly, the fall-out during and after the fact:
Last edited by Jeff Buchanan; April 18, 2022, 08:03 AM.Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.
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Western weapons inflow is having an effect. Aljazeera conservatively estimates 3000 pieces of heavy hardware have been lost by the orcs. So far.
ukraine.JPGI don't watch Fox News for the same reason I don't eat out of a toilet.
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Originally posted by Jeff Buchanan View PostIt is crystal clear that Putin is committing genocide in Ukraine. Talking about making him accountable in the international bodies that have already received allegations of genocide from Ukraine is useless and only symbolic. Milosivic wasn't moved by similar UN and court actions in 1988-89 and ultimately was forced to the negotiating table by 11 months of NATO air operations that had as their objective to interdict and destroy Serbian military forces.
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Meanwhile, the mostly peaceful Islamic Republic of Iran threatened war with Israel again today, stating they will 'strike the very heart of the zionist entity" if even slightly provoked. I'd almost like to see that, since Israel would mop the floor with Iran in a matter of weeks. And, a lot of neighboring Arab nations would sit by, pop some popcorn, and watch Israel clobber those radical ragheads.
I'm sure that a lot of people in Iran would be pleased with the radical Islamic government being tossed out on their asses as well."in order to lead America you must love America"
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Originally posted by lineygoblue View PostMeanwhile, the mostly peaceful Islamic Republic of Iran threatened war with Israel again today, stating they will 'strike the very heart of the zionist entity" if even slightly provoked. I'd almost like to see that, since Israel would mop the floor with Iran in a matter of weeks. And, a lot of neighboring Arab nations would sit by, pop some popcorn, and watch Israel clobber those radical ragheads.
I'm sure that a lot of people in Iran would be pleased with the radical Islamic government being tossed out on their asses as well.
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