Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Jeff Buchanan]

I learned a new term today. Doomism. I'd apply it to the post (the one above this one) above. Heh ...... Also: 0.85Buchanans for sure.

[AlabamAlum]

Jeff, you never really gave a travelogue on Portugal. Or, If you did, I MAR’ed.

[iam416]

What in god's holy name are you doing? JFC. Prompting a 1.75Buchanan response on the wonders of Oporto?

You should be banned, burned at the stake, shot in the head, cast into a volcano and nuked in said volcano.

Also,

Fear The Kirby

[AlabamAlum]

I’m thinking of revisiting Madrid for my next trip. Considering a side trip to Lisbon so I can speak to them slowly in Spanish and hope it gets me by. Damn Portuguese!

[Dr. Strangelove]

Insane story about Brett Favre’s alleged welfare fraud in Mississippi:

https://apple.news/AHqJghOVhQ6y_OnETzfjlTg

I heard about that and yeah, pretty nuts. There's a lot more detail in the story the Mississippi newspaper published if you haven't read it. Think I saw just one detail that he used welfare money to buy his buddy an F-150 Raptor?

[Dr. Strangelove]

There's also video in this thread of probably a hundred people people in Shanghai looting a grocery store for food.

[AlabamAlum]

I heard about that and yeah, pretty nuts. There's a lot more detail in the story the Mississippi newspaper published if you haven't read it. Think I saw just one detail that he used welfare money to buy his buddy an F-150 Raptor?

Yeah, it amazes me how people who should be financially stable get caught up in such mess. I have a physician friend who got popped for Medicare fraud. Just mind boggling.

[Jeff Buchanan]

In summary Putin needs to hope the "regrouping" of the Russian Army is going through right now in preparation for a break through offensive in Donbas will get him an actual victory.

I posted this yesterday and then read today that Russia has reorganized it's military command structure putting a new general, Alexander Dvornikov, in charge of the next offensive operation that will involve an eastern thrust south of Izyum toward Slovyansk and Barvinkove into Donas and Luhansk regions. Dornikov is experienced in larger scale operations and commanded Russian forces in Syria.

The first Russian effort to seize Kiev was a royal cluster fuck and the Russians know it. Their biggest problem was coordinating the advances of BTGs with artillery and air support (protecting re-supply lines, flanks and massing combat power at any given point of attack) in large scale operations. Failing this, with Russian units fighting on their own, exposed units were easily disrupted by more nimble and well coordinated Ukrainian counter attacks, especially those attacking exposed supply lines.

Also today, BBC Intelligence is reporting that inside the Kremlin there is tension between advocates for keeping Russian forces moving and pausing them to regroup, rearm and repair or replace damaged tanks and other equipment. It's probably reflective of political pressures to achieve a victory before May 9th, Russia's big celebration of victory in WWII and military advisors advocating for a pause as above.

CTR analysis believes that a pause is likely to present a more difficult defense for Ukraine of the "Crescent" territory of Ukraine I described before (coastal Ukraine abutting the Sea of Azov and the Black sea including important ports within). This is assuming that the Russian Army can actually improve the combat power of individual BTGs (re-supply and replace equipment and personnel) AND improve the dreadful C3 they demonstrated a month ago. There are doubts based on solid intel.

A hurried Russian advance, OTH, almost assures the Ukrainians will have a better chance of defeating or at least holding off Russian forces to obtain a more favorable negotiating position should that present itself. IMO, the blabbering from the west about Russian war crimes isn't going to do shit. Russian citizens are being fed complete bull-shit by Putin's propaganda machine inside Russia and are, reportedly, believing it. Outside reporting of what's going on in Ukraine is being blocked - mostly successfully. In the west it's a different story of reality - not that amounts to a hill of beans. What does amount to something substantial delivered to Ukraine is arms - a lot of them. Zelenski properly complains that its being delivered too slowly.

IMO, this remains a war of attrition that Russia can eventually win with patience even if it takes months or years to do it. There is the problem for Russia, given sanction, of resupply and rearmament in a long war. Is China rearming Putin's forces? The answer to that question is important. Public opinion, it seems, is not a problem for Putin within Russia. Maximum political pressure from the west, the continued anger over Russian military savagery, will have minimal effect on the battle space even in the long run. While it may steel the spines of Ukrainians, that isn't much of a match for the utter destruction and killings of civilians Putin is willing to and can produce in Ukraine.

Zelenski is now and will be faced going forward with more brutal circumstances wrt to the survival of the Ukranian state and it's citizens. He may have to decide on some kind of compromise deal with Putin and it's not likely to be a favorable one for him given the stark realities he's facing.

[foxhopper]

I'm beginning to see the light...It's all Trumps fault!

[Tom W]

And Trump killed the dinosaurs (probably to make fossils fuels) . They saw the light, but it was too late to do anything about it. You at least have time to order an EV and have your kids rack up massive amounts of student loan debt that you won’t have to pay for.

[foxhopper]

Changed my mind. It's all Putins fault.

https://youtu.be/V0MbDkacAyQ

[Da Geezer]

Restricting comment to just this one.

If you want to believe that Trump attempting to extort personal political favors from a foreign leader in exchange for weapons to protect his country, the same one currently trying to survive an invasion, does not rise to the level of impeachment, that's fine. I disagree but I think that's at least a defensible position given that ultimately the aid went through. Even if he held it up for no reason and mysteriously released the hold only when Congress began asking questions. Whatever.

If, on the other hand, you believe that no such blackmail/threats/extortion took place and that Trump did absolutely nothing sketchy during that whole episode and has just always had a deep commitment to cleaning up corruption in Ukraine, you are living in a fantasy universe.

DSL:

There are many more options than the two you posit.

How about believing that powerful men naturally tend toward corruption, and Trump's mention of Hunter was indeed corrupt. But, to be consistent, Joe Biden bragged about withholding $ 1 Billion from Ukraine until the government "replaced" the prosecutor in the Hunter Biden/Burisma graft. I prefer to believe that power induces corruption, and it is a problem on both sides of the aisle.

It is now an established fact that Hunter gave part of his multi-country graft to Joe. I see the Trump call as a corrupt attempt to get dirt on the son of a Dem politician (running 5th or so in the primaries at the time of the call). I don't believe Joe would have specified the exact quid pro quo in a corrupt act if such an act wasn't standard procedure for those in power Trump didn't benefit personally from his corruption, Joe did.

And BTW, who was it that was impeached for corruption?

[Da Geezer]

Yeah, my own view is that Government, and especially the Federal Government, should be a "do no harm" institution. My view is that Government, especially the Federal Government, is an absolute last resort to "fix" problems.. IMO, Government (all government) is obviously self-interested and way more likely to do harm than good with any particular enactment. These are people, like anyone else. They are fundamentally self-interested. The hope is that if they do enact something that the greater good and their own self-interest overlap. The far more realistic hope is that don't do anything. And, to be clear, I do think that every level of Government has justifiable roles to play, but I want to see the action justified both in terms of the alleged problem and the proposed solution. I approach every government action with skepticism. I've seen these people work.

That said, the President's job, IMO, has a significant "leadership" or "messaging" component (his foremost job is to preside over and direct and ginormous largely unaccountable (C'mon Gorsuch, pull the trigger) administrative apparatus). To that end, DJT was not good and The Chairman is not good (for very different reasons). Kamala may be the worst of the three, but that's like sorting out the differences between UConn, UMass and Akron football.

I have lots of complaints as to the current political environment. But, I very much think the primary system is a huge problem. I also think the way folks are drawing districts is tough. Both encourage less moderate candidates. But, you know, there's not much to be done about either. Nor is there much to be done about social media up-filtering and giving an outsized voice to less moderate folks.

Nor is there is much to done about the lack of any sort of neutral news. The legacy media is in the tank for the Ds on a number of issues. The 2nd generation media -- the talkshows, FOX/MSM, some of the reactionary newspapers are explicitly tailored to an audience and the 3rd generation media (YT, blogs, Substack, etc) doesn't really do any sort of hard news. For mostly apolitical issues we're reminded of what the legacy media can be -- e.g., Ukraine. But, that's the exception to their general approach.

Finally, and this is, I guess, a digression, but I firmly believe the parties are involved in a slow-motion re-sorting where the rprofessional elites are moving en masse to the Ds and the working class is moving toward the new piopulism of the R party. Corporations, e.g., have definitively thrown in with the Ds. That's a huge shift. Blue collar workers have firmly thrown in the Rs. Another huge shift. Meanwhile, the "do no harm" conservativism that I would be very inclined to embrace is as dead and overcooked as a North Platte drummette.

Really good post. Well written too.

I'm a "do no harm" conservative, like yourself. But certainly, there is a place for government too.

I go to DC periodically, and what I see is a place where 95% of the citizens are Democrats. A poll I saw recently said that the political leanings of the federal bureaucracy in DC most closely resemble that of an Ivy League college professoriate. Roughly 20-1. K-12 teachers are about 4-1. This is a self-perpetuating power machine with teachers electing school boards and bureaucrats electing Dems.

The most profound characteristic of both teachers and bureaucrats is an aversion to risk. Tenured teachers (3 years of service in MI) cannot be fired for all practical purposes. Bureaucrats have the same type of job security as teachers. Both teachers and bureaucrats are heavily unionized and both earn far more than an open market would ever pay them. When you add their political power to the 50% of the US receiving welfare and throw in the professional" class, it is easy to see how Dems are in control.

FDR spoke against the unionization of public employees and prohibited it. If the "do no harm" conservatives are ever again to have influence in national politics, the key is to eliminate teacher tenure and total job security for bureaucrats. The inept should lose their jobs, and, IMO, just the possibility of losing their job would change their conduct.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Yeah, my own view is that Government, and especially the Federal Government, should be a "do no harm" institution. My view is that Government, especially the Federal Government, is an absolute last resort to "fix" problems.. IMO, Government (all government) is obviously self-interested and way more likely to do harm than good with any particular enactment. These are people, like anyone else. They are fundamentally self-interested. The hope is that if they do enact something that the greater good and their own self-interest overlap. The far more realistic hope is that don't do anything. And, to be clear, I do think that every level of Government has justifiable roles to play, but I want to see the action justified both in terms of the alleged problem and the proposed solution. I approach every government action with skepticism. I've seen these people work.

That said, the President's job, IMO, has a significant "leadership" or "messaging" component (his foremost job is to preside over and direct and ginormous largely unaccountable (C'mon Gorsuch, pull the trigger) administrative apparatus). To that end, DJT was not good and The Chairman is not good (for very different reasons). Kamala may be the worst of the three, but that's like sorting out the differences between UConn, UMass and Akron football.

I have lots of complaints as to the current political environment. But, I very much think the primary system is a huge problem. I also think the way folks are drawing districts is tough. Both encourage less moderate candidates. But, you know, there's not much to be done about either. Nor is there much to be done about social media up-filtering and giving an outsized voice to less moderate folks.

Nor is there is much to done about the lack of any sort of neutral news. The legacy media is in the tank for the Ds on a number of issues. The 2nd generation media -- the talkshows, FOX/MSM, some of the reactionary newspapers are explicitly tailored to an audience and the 3rd generation media (YT, blogs, Substack, etc) doesn't really do any sort of hard news. For mostly apolitical issues we're reminded of what the legacy media can be -- e.g., Ukraine. But, that's the exception to their general approach.

Finally, and this is, I guess, a digression, but I firmly believe the parties are involved in a slow-motion re-sorting where the rprofessional elites are moving en masse to the Ds and the working class is moving toward the new piopulism of the R party. Corporations, e.g., have definitively thrown in with the Ds. That's a huge shift. Blue collar workers have firmly thrown in the Rs. Another huge shift. Meanwhile, the "do no harm" conservativism that I would be very inclined to embrace is as dead and overcooked as a North Platte drummette.

Was it Henry David Thoreau...Thomas Jefferson...or Dick Van Patten...who said... “That government is best which governs least”...

[THE_WIZARD_]

I’m thinking of revisiting Madrid for my next trip. Considering a side trip to Lisbon so I can speak to them slowly in Spanish and hope it gets me by. Damn Portuguese!

Might I suggest a trip to lovely downtown Kyiv? I'll buy...