Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Jeff Buchanan]

Here are some key points I'm picking up from the military analysis feeds I'm reading**:

• The Kremlin is preparing the Russian population for a long war
• Elements of the Russian armed forces (Unarmiya) involving 17-18yo youths in military training, similar to ROTC, are being conscripted to fight in Ukraine
• Overall and reported by the Ukrainian GRU (intelligence arm) there is widespread resistance to conscription throughout Russia.
• To obtain troop replenishments, various security elements are forcing young men into service at gun point.
• The Ukrainian government rejected a local Russian commanders offer of a cease fire in Mariupol on the condition the city would lay down it's arms.
• Regarding the cease fire, point made that the Russians are not to be trusted in matters of humanitarian aid or cease fires. They offer these to resupply their own forces.
• Ukrainian forces claim to have killed three Russian regimental commanders in the last 24 hours.
• Commanders of the 331st VDV Regiment, 247th VDV Regiment, and the 6th Tank Regiment (90th Tank Division, CMD) are among those reportedly killed (video confirmation)
• Deputy Commander of the Black Sea Fleet for military-political affairs, Captain of the 1st Rank Andrei Paly, was killed in Mariupol. (Video confirmation)

NB: The claimed deaths of Russian regimental commanders originate from the Azov Battalion (or Regiment) defending Mariupol. The Azov Battalion is an arm of the Ukrainian Army that has been actively fighting Russian Separatists in the contested Donetsk area since 2014. There are members that are recognized as nationalists and characterized as right wing-extremists with neo-Nazi associations. That association gives rise to Putin's claims that the Ukrainian government is run by neo-Nazis with the aim of exterminating Russian speaking people in the Donbas and Luhansk regions. That is therefore justification for his "special military operation."

Obviously, Putin alleging that the entire Ukrainian government, including Zelenski, who is Jewish, are neo-Nazi's is a propagandistic, blatant lie. But these dudes are hardened soldiers schooled in killing and skilled in creating havoc within the Russian ranks. That Mariupol remains unsecured by Russian forces despite unprecedented bombardment that has damaged or destroyed 90% of the structures in that city tells a huge story. That is the Russians appear to be suffering signficant losses of personnel and equipment in their attempts, so far unsuccessful, to take over the city. Certainly, the Russian speaking residence there are not welcoming them. Yuo can read about the Azov Battalion here: https://www.dw.com/en/the-azov-batta...pol/a-61151151

** I want to be perfectly clear: I'm referencing military analysis feeds that those sources rely heavily on input from the Ukrainian General Staff and Ministry of Defense. There's a good deal of propaganda and bias in these reports. It is also clear to me that the claims being received by AEI's CTR Project are vetted to the extent possible by social media postings, available overhead imagery and what ever sources outside of Ukraine are also reporting - British intelligence, for example. When there is congruence the CTR puts it up on their daily analysis. When there isn't it doesn't or caveats that the claim cannot be confirmed.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Chinese Boeing 737 crashes. 100+ probably dead. First serious crash in China since 2010. I don't think this was one of the a 737 MAX jets that had all the problems but I'm not sure. There's purported video of it floating around and the plane was in a very steep nose dive from 30,000 feet

China plane crash: China Eastern Airlines Boeing 737 crash; 132 people on board (cnbc.com)

[Jeff Buchanan]

My take on the reality of the situation on the ground in Ukraine is that things are going a lot worse for the Russian Army if only 75% of what I'm reading is accurate and the rest Ukrainian propaganda. But I am absolutely sure that here in the US, and probably in Europe and the rest of the world, we're getting a more optimistic assessment of the successes of Putin's war from the MSM, overly influenced by emotions, than is warranted by the facts on the ground. A strict military analysis devoid of depicting the horrors of war tells a much different story than the endless images of the suffering of the Ukrainian people. IMO, the characterization of the war in Ukraine based on the human suffering and the toll of Ukrainian losses not on the substantial losses being suffered by the Russian military serve's Putin's purposes more than those of the west.

My overall assessment is that the Russian Army is not going to achieve it's likely Plan A and has switched to Plan B and probably Plan C. Plan B entails WWI like trench warfare where tanks and artillery dig in and relentlessly pound targets - in this case Ukrainian cities, civilians and infrastructure with the objective of forcing a Ukrainian conditional surrender on Moscow's terms. Plan C involves what we would call special ops carried out by special operations units of the US armed forces and CIA. The Russian objective is the capture or assassination of key persons within Ukraine's government both national and local. We're already seeing this play out with hostage taking of mayors and some civilians.

In combination, plan B & C are likely to succeed in achieving Putin's objective of eliminating the existing Ukrainian government and replacing it with a government that will demilitarize Ukraine and is stridently opposed to the integration of Ukraine into the EU. Putin will claim, mission accomplished. But the costs will be high, no need to list them but keeping the Ukrainian population constrained isn't going to be possible - it will be an unstable country and a hot-spot that challenges European security for years to come. Russia will slither back to a Stalinist period of oppression and shortages of almost everything - not because of collectivization, Putin is not about that - but because sanctions will continue as punishment for Putin's aggression and as a means of limiting his capacity to wage future war.

The west will see it as a draw. NATO will awaken to the risk that Putin will continue his land grab on it's eastern flank, re-arm and re-ignite the threat of a nuclear war while Putin will patiently wait to rearm and for the right time to do that. The iron curtain will come down starting at Ukraine's western boarder, the cold war of the 50s and 60s between Russia and America and the global insecurity that brought will resurface. China will see the West's failure to prevent the fall of Zelenski and his government as a win for them. The west however will wake up to the threat of a major shift in the present world order, shift it's diplomatic efforts and rearm to blunt it. The inclusive diplomacy of last 50 years whereby brutal autocrats should be dealt with by including them in the pursuit of prosperity that thrives in democratic countries will give way to less globalization, more isolationism and less interdependence. Because of those factors, China's economic power will recede despite their attempts to gain control of global financing and trade. None of this is a good thing but I don't think Putin's Ukraine war goes nuclear. Cooler heads will prevail. So, there is that.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Chinese Boeing 737 crashes. 100+ probably dead. First serious crash in China since 2010. I don't think this was one of the a 737 MAX jets that had all the problems but I'm not sure. There's purported video of it floating around and the plane was in a very steep nose dive from 30,000 feet

China plane crash: China Eastern Airlines Boeing 737 crash; 132 people on board (cnbc.com)

fuckin' Trump

[Mike]

The fact that Putin chose this time to act shouldn't surprise anyone. The 20 years of (mostly) misadventure in Iraq and Afghanistan left Americans fatigued and/or mentally checked out. The willingness to enter another entanglement on the other side of the world has to be at or near historic lows. Our ME quagmire is still biting us in the ass for this reason. Furthermore, if we did want to launch any strikes to support Ukraine, the option would have existed to do so from our ME bases and avoid the issues of doing so from NATO countries which is a no-go (for now).

So once our withdrawal was complete (in humiliating fashion), Putin recognized that American involvement would be low and present a best-case-scenario on that front. Xi knows this as well.

So I ponder this question: If the U.S. had gotten out of Afghanistan a decade earlier, say after the killing of Bin Laden, and we weren't less than a year removed from the clusterfuck evacuation in Kabul, would Americans have more stomach to get involved militarily in Ukraine? Or at least be doing more than we are? My guess is yes - to what extent is hard to know. But it's a glaring example of the downside of dilly-dallying around in some 3rd-world shithole for 2 decades. There's little political will when something far more important crops up.

[Jeff Buchanan]

So I ponder this question: If the U.S. had gotten out of Afghanistan a decade earlier, say after the killing of Bin Laden, and we weren't less than a year removed from the clusterfuck evacuation in Kabul, would Americans have more stomach to get involved militarily in Ukraine? Or at least be doing more than we are?

American's having the "stomach to get involved .... in Ukraine" begs two questions: One, strictly political, or is there the political will in Congress to give the president the green light under the War Powers Resolution (50 USC. Ch 33). At the outset on February 24th, that was highly unlikely. It becomes more likely every day this shit-storm goes on. Two, what are the Joint Chiefs and the NSC offering as military options that involve engagement with Russian forces.

The second question is a difficult one and involves dusting off nuclear war game theory that dominated strategic and tactical planning during the cold war. In the current context, what can the US do to help keep Ukraine from falling without the likely escalation on the nuclear threat ladder that Putin has threatened he will undertake? I've read two schools of thought on this question. One is that we should be calling what is believed to be Putin's bluff, gradually crossing trip wires to see his response. Although on our end, it's hard to see how Putin believes that a US led NATO effort will be launched to overthrow him. And experts agree on this ...... Putin is obsessed with that idea and convinced he's already being undermined by the west as a prelude to an attack into Russia. So, even these seemingly innocuous trip wires, e.g., increasing NATO troop deployments into it's eastern flank or giving Ukraine MIG-29s, may precipitate a Russian initiated escalation and increased chances of a miscalculation of intent. NATO forces implementing a no fly zone? Observers think this goes too far given Moscow's obsession with being overthrown. The fear is that aircraft operating from inside Ukraine and within this no-fly zone, armed with nuclear weapons, could reach Moscow in minutes. Too risky under the circumstances.

The best plan is to think long term. Continue supplying Ukraine with defensive arms and short range drones that can't make it inot Russia (the Turkish ones as an example). Increase surface to air defensive weapons; we're talking about Turkish S400s for example which BTW are Russian manufactured. The US has a wide range of mobile and lethal air defense systems - two factors are limiting turning these over to the Ukrainians: (1) training required to operate them. (2) compromise of fire control and missile guidance technology. The one thing Zelenski sorely needs is the capability to diminish the effectiveness of Russian artillery. I was surprised to learn in my research that the Ukrainians are global leaders in the development and employment of counter-battery systems. They were effectively deployed against separatist forces leading up to the Minsk accords in 2014. I've heard nothing about their use in the current war. I suspect thier deployment is highly classified. You can read about the several systems the Ukrainian Army already has in the field here: https://www.menadefense.net/military...-warfare-means. Obviously, given the immense artillery advantage the Russian forces possess, it would make sense to help Ukraine get more of these - finding them from Germany, Poland, et. al and the US would, of course, require systems training.

Meanwhile keep the sanctions on and here is where it is probably safer to act aggressively. At some point, Putin will become logistically challenged to a greater degree than he already is with his hugely overextended supply lines. Will he attack origination points for flows of weapons into Ukraine from inside Poland and Moldova? Will he undertake false flag operations to give justification for attacks beyond Ukraine's boarders into other NATO countries? Don't think he'll risk that being obsessed about triggering a US led NATO attack into Russia should he actually do this. So, the west has some leverage here that we can use. As always, I can discuss military tactical and strategic analysis separated from the horrors the Ukrainians are experiencing. That just makes me think up crazy shit we should be doing to protect them and fuck with Putin.

[Dr. Strangelove]

This evening an article on Pravda appeared to share what are the official Russian casualty figures through March 18:

9,861 killed, 16,153 wounded

The article was only up for a brief time and has now been taken down. Unclear if this was a hoax (hacked) or someone screwed up or deliberately leaked the actual figures. Russia admitted 498 deaths way back on March 2 and has never updated that number.

[Mike]

I wouldn’t be surprised at all if those are the actual numbers.

[crashcourse]

I dont think trump was an isolationist president


soleamani and baghdadi would agree

[Obi-Jon]

If accurate, that’s more than a 13% casualty rate in less than a month’s time. Putin can’t keep those kind of numbers suppressed within Russia for very long and/or keep morale high.

[Jeff Buchanan]

If accurate, that’s more than a 13% casualty rate in less than a month’s time. Putin can’t keep those kind of numbers suppressed within Russia for very long and/or keep morale high.

In my summary this morning of the tactical situation on the ground, I omitted Ukrainian GRU reports of serious discipline and morale issues because I felt some of the quoted reports were propaganda. Those reports described low moral issues among both deployed Russian troops in Ukraine and Russian Army forces in garrison but being readied to deploy to Ukraine in the homeland to replace combat losses. Self mutilation and desertion to prevent deployment from Russia have been reported in the homeland. Company and platoon sized, mass surrender of engaged Russian troops to Ukrainian forces both in the NE and the entirety of the S boarder region of Ukraine with Russia is being documented.

It was speculated in the reporting I did not quote earlier that the refusal of the Mariupol leadership to surrender is because the Azov Battalion fighting street to street with the Russians in and around the city center of Mariupol are telling the Mariupol leadership those soldiers, instead of advancing on the city center in an organized fashion run the other way when confronted. IOW, "we're winning, Don't give up."

Poor command and control at the battalion and regimental level in employing infantry and supporting fires from tanks and artillery (focusing combat power) is reflective of leadership chaos. Among low ranking soldiers doing the fighting there is no support and they think no one is in charge - just a bunch of soldiers operating independently, trying to survive and being killed soldier by soldier by more organized Ukrainian forces - particularly effective and demoralizing sniper fire.

[THE_WIZARD_]

...

[Jeff Buchanan]

Just finished reading a NYT's piece on the proliferation of low yield tactical nuclear weapons by countries that possess the capability to build them. Russia is reported to have 2000 of these dial-a-yield tactical nukes ranging in power up to 1/3 the energy of the Hiroshima bomb and as low as 2%. They also practice the transition, in the face of serious combat power losses, the transition from conventional battle space to a chemical, biological or nuclear battle space. The US has somewhere around 100 of these weapons in Europe and that was a hard sell to get them there due to the politics of deploying them inside the EU. NATO does not practice, at least they don't do it out in the open like Russia does, a transition from a conventional to a nuclear battle space.

Experts in nuclear warfare warn that the presence of low yield nukes on the battlefield lowers the threshold or taboo for their use substantially below that for the use of intercontinental MIRV'ed nuclear war head carrying missiles with each MIRV yielding about 20kt for a total over a wide pancake shaped zone of 10mt. The mutually assured destruction doctrine doesn't apply to these weapons. Threatened with a battlefield defeat, the likelihood that Russian commanders in the field will be given authority to use a tactical nuke has risen. Such use might be a warning type launch from within Russia into uninhabited Siberia. More likely in the current circumstance would be a low yield nuke fired at an uninhabited and undefended area in Ukraine with the intention of stunning the west's and Ukraine's leadership, like, "whoa they just fucking nuked us."

Interestingly, president Trump, seeing the large advantage Russia was developing in the development and deployment of tactical nukes in 2017, initiated a program of building and deploying tactical submarine launched missiles with low yield nuclear war heads. These were deployed aboard US subs in 2019 in numbers that we don't know but the intent was to signal to Putin that don't fuck around with these things in any future military ground ops you may initiate. If you do we will respond in kind and you won't know where they are coming from or where they will be going. What this tit-for-tat low yield exchange does is put the ball back in Putin's court to decide if he wants to escalate or not. Nobody knows with certainty if will escalate or not.

[THE_WIZARD_]

stfu

[Jeff Buchanan]

This is what I get after liking your poopy pants photo? May a tactical nuke land in your backyard, scare the ever-loving-shit out of you ..... and be a dud. I just want to scare you, not kill you..... for now.