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I'm reading the NYT's and AP news feeds this morning that identify Russian tanks in the center of Mariupol and characterize this as being "major progress." I've warned of this sort of superficial analysis coming from the MSM. The details of observed troop positioning of opposing forces - such details not reported in the Western press - describes a different picture involving the struggles of the Russian military. The reality is that, to date and after a month long campaign, Russian military forces have failed to obtain any of their initial primary objectives. Those would have been a "shock and awe" sweeping victory that seized Kiev and asserted control over the contested Donbas and Luhansk regions including the port of Odessa.
Worth noting is that its been reported that the Russian commander of the early and initial battalion sized paratrooper operation into an airfield at the outskirts of Kiev that failed was relieved. Depending on who is reporting, 4 or 5 General officers and at least two field grade commanders have been killed in fighting. Company sized Russian units, rather than fight when attacked by Ukrainian forces, desert their positions, some being taken as POWs.
Looking specifically at Mariupol, the city has been destroyed yet block to block fighting continues and Russian forces, in terms of personnel and equipment, are being expended at very high rates in that process. The net effect is to reduce the capacity of commanders to concentrate combat power elsewhere in Ukraine in meaningful ways. Instead of mounting combined arms (air, sea and land) battalion and regimental level operations, the Russians are instead conducting only unsupported company level offensive operations. These lack the combat power to achieve objectives in the face of determined Ukrainian resistance. Analysts that I'm following provide this assessment:
Russian forces in the south appear to be focusing on a drive toward Kryvyi Rih, presumably to isolate and then take Zaporizhiya and Dnipro from the west but are unlikely to secure any of those cities in the coming weeks if at all. Kryvyi Rih is a city of more than 600,000 and heavily fortified according to the head of its military administration. Zaporizhiya and Dnipro are also large. The Russian military has been struggling to take Mariupol, smaller than any of them, since the start of the war with more combat power than it is currently pushing toward Kryvyi Rih. The Russian advance on that axis is thus likely to bog down as all other Russian advances on major cities have done.
The doctrinally sound Russian response to this situation would be to end this campaign, accept a possibly lengthy operational pause, develop the plan for a new campaign, build up resources for that new campaign, and launch it when the resources and other conditions are ready. The Russian military has not yet adopted this approach. It is instead resorting to sieges of select cities by bombardment inflicting huge civilian casualties that are disheartening and drive perceptions of Russian military successes. The western press tends to dutifully report events clouded by emotionalism not the reality of military facts on the ground.
That reality is that the Russians are continuing to feed small collections of reinforcements into an ongoing effort to keep the current campaign alive with the initial objective of capturing Kiev still in place. That is unlikely to be achieved. Analysts believe the war has reached a point of stalemate with neither side being able to claim victory. A protracted conflict is developing with Russian forces attempting to defeat the will of the Ukrainian government to continue to fight by bombardments of cities that inflict increasing civilian casualties and the destruction of infrastructure. Over the coming months, Moscow will attempt to obtain favorable positions on the ground, e.g., surround Kiev but not try to enter it, to leverage that to gain a negotiated settlement favorable to Putin.
The take-away is this:
Ukraine’s defeat of the initial Russian campaign is setting conditions for a devastating protraction of the conflict and a dangerous new period testing the resolve of Ukraine and the West. Continued and expanded Western support to Ukraine will be vital to seeing Ukraine through that new period. My view is that it's a coin flip of whether the Russian Army, given the attrition in combat power they are experiencing, can wage war at the level necessary to gain advantages in a future negotiated settlement. The reality of financial and economic sanctions on Russia is going to take a toll and limit Putin's ability to continue to obtain war supplies. As I've said before, a cornered Putin, a defeated Putin, should not be the objective. There is plenty of diplomatic effort underway, plenty of talking among key representatives on both sides as well as representatives from other countries to stop this thing but it was reported this morning that Putin isn't ready to talk. Whether or not he will be in the future is uncertain. That he is a ruthless, fucking thug isn't uncertain at all.
Worth noting is that its been reported that the Russian commander of the early and initial battalion sized paratrooper operation into an airfield at the outskirts of Kiev that failed was relieved. Depending on who is reporting, 4 or 5 General officers and at least two field grade commanders have been killed in fighting. Company sized Russian units, rather than fight when attacked by Ukrainian forces, desert their positions, some being taken as POWs.
Looking specifically at Mariupol, the city has been destroyed yet block to block fighting continues and Russian forces, in terms of personnel and equipment, are being expended at very high rates in that process. The net effect is to reduce the capacity of commanders to concentrate combat power elsewhere in Ukraine in meaningful ways. Instead of mounting combined arms (air, sea and land) battalion and regimental level operations, the Russians are instead conducting only unsupported company level offensive operations. These lack the combat power to achieve objectives in the face of determined Ukrainian resistance. Analysts that I'm following provide this assessment:
Russian forces in the south appear to be focusing on a drive toward Kryvyi Rih, presumably to isolate and then take Zaporizhiya and Dnipro from the west but are unlikely to secure any of those cities in the coming weeks if at all. Kryvyi Rih is a city of more than 600,000 and heavily fortified according to the head of its military administration. Zaporizhiya and Dnipro are also large. The Russian military has been struggling to take Mariupol, smaller than any of them, since the start of the war with more combat power than it is currently pushing toward Kryvyi Rih. The Russian advance on that axis is thus likely to bog down as all other Russian advances on major cities have done.
The doctrinally sound Russian response to this situation would be to end this campaign, accept a possibly lengthy operational pause, develop the plan for a new campaign, build up resources for that new campaign, and launch it when the resources and other conditions are ready. The Russian military has not yet adopted this approach. It is instead resorting to sieges of select cities by bombardment inflicting huge civilian casualties that are disheartening and drive perceptions of Russian military successes. The western press tends to dutifully report events clouded by emotionalism not the reality of military facts on the ground.
That reality is that the Russians are continuing to feed small collections of reinforcements into an ongoing effort to keep the current campaign alive with the initial objective of capturing Kiev still in place. That is unlikely to be achieved. Analysts believe the war has reached a point of stalemate with neither side being able to claim victory. A protracted conflict is developing with Russian forces attempting to defeat the will of the Ukrainian government to continue to fight by bombardments of cities that inflict increasing civilian casualties and the destruction of infrastructure. Over the coming months, Moscow will attempt to obtain favorable positions on the ground, e.g., surround Kiev but not try to enter it, to leverage that to gain a negotiated settlement favorable to Putin.
The take-away is this:
Ukraine’s defeat of the initial Russian campaign is setting conditions for a devastating protraction of the conflict and a dangerous new period testing the resolve of Ukraine and the West. Continued and expanded Western support to Ukraine will be vital to seeing Ukraine through that new period. My view is that it's a coin flip of whether the Russian Army, given the attrition in combat power they are experiencing, can wage war at the level necessary to gain advantages in a future negotiated settlement. The reality of financial and economic sanctions on Russia is going to take a toll and limit Putin's ability to continue to obtain war supplies. As I've said before, a cornered Putin, a defeated Putin, should not be the objective. There is plenty of diplomatic effort underway, plenty of talking among key representatives on both sides as well as representatives from other countries to stop this thing but it was reported this morning that Putin isn't ready to talk. Whether or not he will be in the future is uncertain. That he is a ruthless, fucking thug isn't uncertain at all.
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