Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Jeff Buchanan]

I thought the official Chinese announcement after the Biden-Xi 90 minute Zoom call was interesting, Good chance that the risk of a cornered Putin launching a single strike tactical nuke just went down. There's probably some subtle arm twisting on that subject but not the rest ......

Look, China is no friend. Their goal is diminish American influence and the west defeating Putin doesn't serve China's purposes. They'd like to see China's sphere of influence in Asia and Russia's in Europe having veto power, in a manner of speaking, over what Americans can do. So, Xi isn't going to tell Putin to stand his forces down and settle. He's also probably not going to stop arming the Russians. A slog and continued suffering among Ukrainian civilians, more repression in Russia and a huge drop in the standard of living for Russian citizens who either supported Putin and stayed put because they didn't know the truth or left the country in disgust having knowledge of Putin's war crimes and the means to do so.

There are eye witness reports that Mariupol is a living hell with most of the town, the home of some 400K with heretofore a bright future, destroyed. Bodies are everywhere because there is no one to pick them up. This is what Putin has done and he hopes to finally control the town, install Russian leadership and offer Mariupol as an example of what he will do to every Ukrainian city until Ukrainian leadership accedes to what we are learning through the negotiations are his demands:

• A demilitarized Ukraine that will remain neutral.
• Recognition that Donbas and Luhansk Oblasts are separate states under Russian control
• Crimea is recognized as a part of Russia.

At the moment, those last two are deal breakers. The Russian shelling of civilian targets will continue and has already ticked up in Liviv and Kiev.

[Dr. Strangelove]

I thought the official Chinese announcement after the Biden-Xi 90 minute Zoom call was interesting, Good chance that the risk of a cornered Putin launching a single strike tactical nuke just went down. There's probably some subtle arm twisting on that subject but not the rest ......

Look, China is no friend. Their goal is diminish American influence and the west defeating Putin doesn't serve China's purposes. They'd like to see China's sphere of influence in Asia and Russia's in Europe having veto power, in a manner of speaking, over what Americans can do. So, Xi isn't going to tell Putin to stand his forces down and settle. He's also probably not going to stop arming the Russians. A slog and continued suffering among Ukrainian civilians, more repression in Russia and a huge drop in the standard of living for Russian citizens who either supported Putin and stayed put because they didn't know the truth or left the country in disgust having knowledge of Putin's war crimes and the means to do so.

There are eye witness reports that Mariupol is a living hell with most of the town, the home of some 400K with heretofore a bright future, destroyed. Bodies are everywhere because there is no one to pick them up. This is what Putin has done and he hopes to finally control the town, install Russian leadership and offer Mariupol as an example of what he will do to every Ukrainian city until Ukrainian leadership accedes to what we are learning through the negotiations are his demands:

• A demilitarized Ukraine that will remain neutral.
• Recognition that Donbas and Luhansk Oblasts are separate states under Russian control
• Crimea is recognized as a part of Russia.

At the moment, those last two are deal breakers. The Russian shelling of civilian targets will continue and has already ticked up in Liviv and Kiev.

I've read that 80% of the homes in Mariupol are destroyed or damage. There was a lot of speculation before the war that that city in particular would get "punished" because it's considered the home base for the Azov brigade guys that Putin considers Nazis. With *some* justification. Either way it's merely a pretense for invading.

As far as China goes I think they've gone about as far as we can expect them to go publicly. And I don't know how much "arming the Russians" they are really doing. Their posture is more "we'd like to stay out of this" than anything else. It's certainly not the full-throated support we heard in the first week. Like I said yesterday, they're running images of destroyed cities and homes on Chinese state tv. They showed the footage of the people killed in a bread line. That in itself is counter to Putin's "military target" narrative.

I also think US intelligence has gotten a ton of things right over this past month and China may suspect Russia being the source of those leaks. Calling their reliability as a "partner" into question. Have you seen the reports that the military is using ordinary phones and radios, easily intercepted, to communicate in Ukraine? Utter incompetence.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Jeff I've seen chatter about a Ukrainian counter-offensive from around Mykolaiv southeast towards Kherson. May be worth keeping an eye out for in coming days

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[Jeff Buchanan]

Have you seen the reports that the military is using ordinary phones and radios, easily intercepted, to communicate in Ukraine? Utter incompetence.

Yes, yesterday it was reported on the CTR website I'm following that the Ukrainians triangulated the location of the commander of one of the Motorized Rile Battalions, a Colonel using his cell phone, and a snipper killed him. Photos of the body circulated on social media.

I want to point out another thing about war reporting. I hope everyone has noticed that the Russians, according to western media, have been "advancing, continuing to advance, putting pressure on" ..... name the Ukrainian city. That is the lead-in headline for the horror being inflicted on civilians. It has been repeated and repeated and repeated for a month. And, yes the horror part is accurate, the pictures of the dead disheartening.

Keep in mind, Putin's invasion has been on-going for a month and not a single Ukrainian city is completely controlled by Russian forces, either the regular army or, as Putin had planned in a quick sweep of the country, by his Rosgavardia. As far as I can tell as close to a combo if Hitler's Gestapo and SS as you can get. The result of that failure has been relentless bombardment with air and ground launched munitions - some of them thermobaric, a particularly nasty weapon that has both explosive and incendiary capabilities in one round - and they are coming in the dozens at a time fired from Russian MRLVs on select Ukrainian cities with a priority on Mariupol as DSL points out.

Meanwhile Russian losses in soldiers and equipment is affecting the combat capacity of the deployed force. When a unit loses 10% of its personnel and equipment, it's combat effectiveness is severely degraded. At 30%, the unit is considered not combat ready. Per the CTR, most Russian units have reached at least 10% at some point requiring re-supply and troop replacements to restore them to be ready to continue an assigned offensive operation. Some, can't be restored at all due to 30% losses and nothing to replace those loses. It is the fundamental reason that you also hear, yet not enough of it in the MSM, that Russian forces remain slowed or stalled. It's why you hear reported "there are lulls in the fighting or the bombardments." That's because they are out of fuel and ammunition.

Also important to note is that the Russians have been unable, almost since the start to, bring battalion level combat power to bear on the Ukrainians. Part of that is due to these looses I describe above limiting battalion and brigade commanders from putting the combat power of multiple companies (a battalions worth) together. The other is that apparently Russian Command, Control and Communications (C3) have broken down through faulty equipment, Ukrainian EW and/or actual ID and then destruction of Russian C3 nodes. Like the US does, Russian commanders train too operate in reduced C3 conditions but there's more going on here when those commanders are talking via non-secure telecommunications.

[THE_WIZARD_]

I wish someone would launch a counter offensive attack on you.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Jeff I've seen chatter about a Ukrainian counter-offensive from around Mykolaiv southeast towards Kherson. May be worth keeping an eye out for in coming days

My CTR resource had some sketchy details on this provided from the Ukrainian General Staff. Your map does a great job showing how the a Russian objective, probably secondary to capturing the capital of Kiev and decapitating it's leadership, is establishing a "land bridge" between the Russian occupied territories of Donbas (Donetsk), Luhansk and Odessa. If that happens, Putin will probably sue for peace with some tough conditions for a withdrawal - that being leaving a strong Russian military presence throughout Russian controlled territory (in red on your map). I think the Ukrainian General Staff would take issue with the Russians having full control of that entire area. The map below is a close-up of the SE region in Ukraine where Russian forces are trying to create a land bridge between the Donbas and Luhansk regions and Odessa. The areas in yellow are claimed but remain contested. The blue dots show where protests are on-going.

Ukraine2.JPG


In the small towns within the red region and in some of the major cities, the Russians are kidnapping mayors in an attempt to subdue protests and assert Russian control. At the CTR website there's a section of the report for yesterday that listed the claims of various entities inside Russia that rationalize Putin's invasion and make it sound worthy. Taken together it's a stunning lie but nevertheless, as I read it, if I were a Russian having been made skeptical of the west's and NATO's intentions with regard to Russian security, it is completely believable. It's the Russian version of the big lies perpetrated by both of our most recent US presidents.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I wish someone would launch a counter offensive attack on you.

I'm going to ask what's-her-name to ad these buttons to our forum: a thumbs down button, an I hate you emoji and an I want to kill you button (it would be a bloody dagger or something like that).

[Da Geezer]

Name a President since Hoover who was more isolationist than Trump. Make your argument as to why.

FDR until 12-7-41

[Dr. Strangelove]

FDR until 12-7-41

Lend-Lease began near the start of 1941

[Da Geezer]

Lend-Lease began near the start of 1941

True. FDR himself was not much of an isolationist, but his policies were. In the late 30's America was overwhelmingly isolationist, and politicians, including FDR, clung to policies that were isolationist.

But, this brings up an important point. And it is a point that Talent makes. What matters is what factually happened. It is not so important what people "say" Trump said or didn't say. What matters is the policy that results. I can see Trump shooting off his face to Bolton or Esper about getting out of NATO. But what policy resulted? Strengthening NATO by $ 100 Billion is what actually happened. Trump sent weapons to Ukraine. That is what actually happened.

Certainly, anything reported by the WaPo or NYT has to be taken with a grain of salt. Both got the biggest political story in American history (Trump-Russia collusion?) dead wrong. Yesterday, NYT admitted it was wrong about the whole Hunter Biden laptop matter. Those are some pretty big misses, particularly when actual facts were available to those newspapers if they wanted the truth.

[Hannibal]

Name a President since Hoover who was more isolationist than Trump. Make your argument as to why.

Trump wasn't isolationist. Isolationist would be pulling all of our troops out of every foreign venue and telling our "allies" to fend for themselves.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Trump wasn't isolationist. Isolationist would be pulling all of our troops out of every foreign venue and telling our "allies" to fend for themselves.

Ok name a President who was more isolationist than Trump. Geezer says FDR before WWII started. Can you name another or will you be honest and admit only pre-Depression Presidents would qualify?

[Hannibal]

I guess I wouldn't argue but what's your point?

[Hannibal]

Remember when the Hunter Biden laptop was "Russian misinformation?"

Social media was taking down all posts on the subject around election time because it was "misinformation".

[Dr. Strangelove]

I guess I wouldn't argue but what's your point?

All I ever said is that Trump is the most isolationist, most filled with contempt for our allies President since WWII and apparently a bunch of you orange-loving, mincing, nancy-boys are offended by that