Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Jeff Buchanan]

Jon, the strategic goal for countries opposing Russia's invasion of Ukraine is to reduce the price pb of oil. It does not matter if China or anyone else buys oil from the Russian Petro state. As long as it is $50pb and there is plenty of oil to be bought globally, Putin is fucked. Keep in mind a shit-ton of countries won't buy Russian oil anyway.

To me, this is blindingly obvious. The trick is for the opposition to recognize that the world is at war with Russia, the autocratic states that outwardly support it and the fence sitters that by their unwillingness to join in on the condemnation of Russia's crimes in Ukraine have Ukrainian blood on their hands. The US and it's NATO allies should be rallying global support from those that are willing - it seems like just about everyone except some 41 cowards - to drastically reduce the price pb of oil by all means available to them and there are plenty of them.

[Obi-Jon]

I don't disagree. But with oil prices approaching $120/bbl, China is willingly feeding Putrid's war machine. The world is ignoring China's complicity.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Some Syria folks gloating about this. See pics below. Porkins here did countless bombing raids over Syria. Possibly killed thousands and was personally honored by Assad. Today he got shot down and captured by the Ukrainians.

[Jeff Buchanan]

It occurs to me that if this is to be an economic war - and that assumes Putin does not extend military operations beyond Ukraine's boarders because if he does a European conflagration will ensue - Putin's emerging objective to control Ukraine's black sea ports potentially give's Putin an economic weapon that shouldn't be dismissed.

I wrote yesterday about the large portion of grains, and fertilizers that are transported to the rest of the world from Black Sea ports. Right now shipping in that regiona and from those ports has ceased. I also mentioned yesterday that we're not feeling it yet but we will as the loss of delivery of those products around the world, especially in poor countries has the potential to create one more wide spread crisis - a food shortage and famine. Don't take my word for it. It's all here: https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/...ilizer-prices/

It's a bargaining chip Putin can use and acknowledgement that it's a powerful one in any extended economic war is important.

[Jeff Buchanan]

What does it mean? Putin said today in an arranged policy statement he made during a hosting of Aeroflot flight attendants in a Women's Day celebration that if Ukraine continued it's resistance it would "jeopardize statehood" for Ukraine. I have become a student of the history of Ukraine! 😂

It's a really interesting and, given what we think are Putin's military objectives in Ukraine, a rather bazaar thing to say. Since the start, he's been talking about rescuing Ukraine from Nazism that endangers Russian speaking Ukrainians, Particularly in the Donbas and Luhansk regions of Ukraine. I just assumed in the end Ukraine would become a part of Russia and governed from Moscow in a way similar to how China governs Hong Kong, Hong Kong not being a state but instead an administrative region.

Putin said today that statehood for Ukraine, if I have the meaning of that term right, means it would be able to exercise a high degree of autonomy and enjoy executive, legislative, and independent judicial power albeit under leadership loyal to Moscow - similar to Belarus. This should all be couched in what Putin has said and written about Ukraine over the last year preceding the invasion. When I was trying to understand what this declaration that Ukraine could be a state within Russia, I found this interesting article that looks at all the claims Putin has made justifying his invasion and the history of Ukraine's statehood: I like this stuff and have time to read and digest it. You may not. The article is just not amenable to a Cliff Notes version.

https://www.rochester.edu/newscenter/ukraine-history-fact-checking-putin-513812/

[Obi-Jon]

Putin says a lot of things. Like he wasn't going to invade Ukraine. His word is not to be trusted. Ever.

Re the article posted, what happened in the past in territory currently called Ukraine, is rationalization by a blood thirsty despot bent on empire building as his historical legacy. Researching history is good for teaching lessons and avoiding repeatable mistakes, it is abused when used to justify unprovoked slaughter to satisfy ego and nationalistic chest thumping.

Ukraine will never be a state within Russia. Putin is taking out his perceived frustrations on a much weaker victim. "Statehood" is a demand for immediate, unconditional surrender and the acquiescence to slavery.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Jon and Mike, you may find these two articles interesting. The first, of particular interest to me, describes the reasons behind the lack of the effective use of Russia's overwhelming air warfare, both offensive and defensive, capacity in obtaining its military objectives. The second get's into the nitty-gritty of the problems artillery heavy Russian units have in providing effective indirect fires in support of infantry operations. The article on the Russian Airforce highlights the emerging difference between perceptions of air power possessed by the Russians compared to the apparent lack of Russian aircrew's knowledge, training and skills in using it.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/role-artillery-war-between-russia-and-ukraine

[Dr. Strangelove]

Israeli President made a secret trip to meet Putin in person

[Da Geezer]

complete the Iran nuclear deal and lift sanction of Iranian oil production - they'll pump it and sell it. Lift sanctions on Venezuela - they too will pump it and sell it. Declare a national emergency and remove all barriers to production of LNG and petroleum products in the US - the US has enormous energy resources in the ground which, if steps are taken to optimize it for the purpose of flooding the market with oil and LNG, the price of a barrel of oil will drop quickly.

Good post. But you are a product of your training.

1. Quit "sanctioning" the US energy industry. No need to declare a national emergency. Just go back to the Trump policies that made the US the largest fossil fuel producer on the planet.

2. Lifting sanctions on Venezuela or Iran should increase net global output of O+G, but there are actual reasons why those sanctions were put in place. I don't want to trade human misery in Ukraine for human misery in Venezuela or Israel.

There are "new" sources of O+G that remain untapped.

1. Europe should immediately tap its huge reserves of O+G by allowing fracking. This is a matter of will. The only thing holding this up is the thorough indoctrination Europe has given their population regarding "climate change". Emphasis should be on the massive funding that China and Russia have given to Green parties worldwide.

2. This is just a subset of realistically viewing the whole 'global warming" issue. Stop every form of subsidy given to the Greens. That means no more $ 7,500 subsidies for Teslas. I bought a house in AZ last year and it has solar panels. I get $ 21.00/mo or so for the energy they produce The ONLY reason anyone would invest $ 10,000 to make $ 21/ month is if the panels were subsidized. Same with Biden's idea of putting in charging stations throughout the country. Let the car companies set up a distribution network like the gasoline companies did.

3. Acknowledge that the worst-case scenario, IF the Greens are right, is a four-inch increase in sea level by 2100. Does anyone here believe the possibility of nuclear war by 2100 is higher than the probability of the 2100 climate projections? We have raised two full generations who have no feel for mathematical expectations at all.

4. The price mechanism in a free market is the best way to open the spigots for O+G worldwide. We don't know where the extra production will come from, but we do know that it will come (Canada, Timor?). We don't need the Chairman (or Jeff) to identify where extra production will come from. We need only know that a free market will produce the $ 50/bl oil we had during the Trump years..

[Jeff Buchanan]

Look, I don't give a fuck where the oil comes from. Just get it to market. It's out there. The last thing that needs to be done is to turn this currently geographically limited fight in Ukraine into a sideshow war against greens which is exactly what will happen if a congressional battle over restoring or not restoring Trump environmental policies intended to make it easier to get oil and gas out of the ground goes down - and it absolutely will because a large number of those green minded people have not a clue at what is at stake here in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. They are bent on thier mission of eliminating fossil fuels and are perfectly willing to fight that battle ignoring the most important one going on right now.

Putin must be stopped. Ukraine must survive lest we open the doors to a multi-polar world where nuclear powers take whatever they want by force of arms as democratic ideals wither to be replaced by autocratic ones.

Yes, I'm a product of my training ..... which is to identify the enemy's weaknesses, focus on them and defeat him without unnecessary side shows. Making this war a battle between the greens and fossil fuel preservationists is just such a side show. In war time - and make no mistake we are at war, if not legally by declaration - by actions on both sides. At the least the economic implications beyond the fight in Ukraine and the sanctions the west has imposed on Russia, this is national emergency. The president can use his powers to declare such an emergency and then do what is necessary by EO to get the oil that's needed to flood the market so as to reduce the price pb of the stuff. After Putin backs down, and he will if we play this right, we can cancel the NE and EOs that were executed under it and go back to the unicorns and fairy tails the left wants to advance.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Not sure how old this video is (first time seeing it) but geez. Lots of dead Russians from "Z group".

[THE_WIZARD_]

"Climate Change" is the biggest crock since...well...Mask and Vax requirements. No suprise both are weapons the Progs/Dems have used in detriment to American citizens.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Read an article in the Economist that tallies the financial cost to Russia of the sanctions targeted against the Russian Central Bank. The article looked at what's happened to the ruble when Russia defaulted on its debt in 1998, Putin's several military adventures over the last two decades and the current Putin engineered invasion of Ukraine. The default caused a 70% drop in the value of the ruble compared to the dollar. The military incursion in Georgia about 40%, about the same when Putin seized Crimea and 33% during the current invasion of Ukraine. The crash of the ruble would have been worse this time around if Putin hadn't banned the sale of Russian securities and closed the stock markets. Stock's in Russian energy sectors fell by 97% before Putin closed the stock exchanges.

In the last decade or so, Putin has managed to shift his cash reserves away from the US, Japan and France and out of dollars. HIs China holdings are mostly in gold and Yuan and these have replaced the other holdings he has reduced but a lot of his cash reserves remain outside China. Putin is benefitting from the surge in commodity prices including oil, gas and grains but it is not likely these will off-set Putin's inability to access his cash reserves after being denied access to SWIFT. That he has any income to support his Ukraine invasion could be seriously disrupted by lowering the pb price of oil as I've suggested to do and/or preventing him from selling gas and oil which he can currently do.

The Russian consumer will face worsening ability to find basic supplies let alone be able to afford luxury items. Wide spread withdrawal of foreign companies doing business in Russia is going to squeeze consumers who are already looking at 20% inflation that is going to escalate. Jobs will be lost. The Russian elite and oligarchs are in for a bad ride which you can be sure they know nothing about having become used to the hi-life. A Russian recession will quickly take hold and severe depression is not out of the realm of possibility. The scale of the economic damage Putin has wrought on Russia with his invasion of Ukraine cannot be overstated.

Of course there is a risk that the wolf cornered will do something unimaginable to fight back. My hope is that with dialogue continuing - and Putin seems to be entertaining it - he can be talked out of that and intermediaries will offer pathways for the two sides to obtain a negotiated settlement.

[Da Geezer]

Biden's executive order(s) of Jan 20, 2021, placed strong sanctions against American O+G production. Biden cut US oil production by about 3,000,000 per day.

There have been few sanctions against Russian O+G production, and we are still importing 600,000 barrels per day from Russia.

The only way that a rational government can justify this is if that government believes the production of hydrocarbons is a social evil. One wonders why it is OK to sanction production in the US but encourage it in Russia.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Makes no sense. Which is why this is a clear payback to the Green Energy fringe lunatics. Russian O&G as well as other nations is no where near as clean as American O&G so if the argument for limiting American production is the advancement of Climate concern...it's a bald faced fucking lie.