Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Obi-Jon]

More like RichRod or Frosty.

[THE_WIZARD_]

False. Frosty has no access to clusterbombs you moron.

[Mike]

False. Frosty has no access to clusterbombs you moron.

Oh, he's bombed plenty.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Well...iffen by bombed you mean bombed our own program then yes.

pricks

[Jeff Buchanan]

From a NYT's report:

Russia’s vaunted air force has yet to gain air superiority over Ukraine, with Russian warplanes thwarted by Ukrainian fighter jets and a surprisingly resilient and potent array of air defenses, from shoulder-fired Stinger antiaircraft missiles to much larger surface-to-air weapons, the Pentagon official said.

Just a cursory look at the air battle over Ukrainian airspace but it says a couple of important things to me. First, Ukrainian air defense units, probably just as small as the small tactical infantry groups that I noted were operating effectively as independent units given a zone of operation, appear to be having an impact on Russian air OPS. Details are few .... e.g., how many Russian tactical aircraft are operating in the air battle space, how many Ukrainian aircraft and what types of each.

Second, "they has" fighters. Cool.

I was able to find that a recent report indicated the Ukrainians had 92 tactical jets on inventory comprised of Mig29s and SU25s. The Migs are air superiority fighters of the F15 variety and are old. No telling how many are actually up and ready to fight. In my squadron, 60% fully operational aircraft got you a combat ready rating and it was hard to get there with frequent parts shortages (that disappeared if you were headed for actual combat). I doubt the Ukrainians have that level of readiness, probably close to 40% or less and it's probably hard to keep them all up and running. Here's a Ukrainian MIG29

FIghter.jpg

Here's a Ukrainian SU25.

SU 25.JPG

While the idea taking a bunch of aircraft out of mothballs and giving them to Ukraine is stupid talk, giving them aircraft is not. There was an announcement that the EU was going to give the Ukrainians some aircraft. That's probably for real and entirely doable. Why? Because Poland and Lithuania have a lot of MIG 29s and SU25s. If I was in either one of those airforces, I'd be first in line to fly jets over to Ukraine ..... and fight against the fucking Russian pilots. I suspect you'll see Polish and Lithuanian pilots in the cockpits of these aircraft as well as Ukrainians if this actually materializes and I don't doubt it will. My hunch is that the Lithuanian pilots in particular are good. Back when I was doing this sort of thing, the skill levels of EU nation's pilots (in my case from the Netherlands) that I flew with was very high. Good sticks and fearless.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Russia's Federal censor is hard at work today. The last major independent tv station in Russia and the most popular independent radio station both got shut down. Russia's threatening to block all of Wikipedia because their "2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine" article is very accurate and not total bullshit.

[Obi-Jon]

We hear all about gasoline and diesel, let's hope we're feeding them JP-4 as well.

[Tom W]

The Su-25 was developed for ground attack. They should be absolutely feasting on the Russian convoys.

[Hannibal]

More like RichRod or Frosty.

I was thinking that now all of Russia knows what it's like to have Mike Debord as your offensive coordinator.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Russia's Federal censor is hard at work today. The last major independent tv station in Russia and the most popular independent radio station both got shut down. Russia's threatening to block all of Wikipedia because their "2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine" article is very accurate and not total bullshit.

What I find interesting is that outside Russia and based on the ground swell of condemnation of Putin's war and by his actions the creation of a horrendous humanitarian crisis, his opponents are winning the war of perceptions on mainstream news and social media platforms.

What I find astonishing is the level of lying to the Russian people coming from Putin's government about the reasons for the "necessary special military operation" and that they are based on persecution of Russian speaking people and Russian Jews in particular in Ukraine. IOW, we're going in to Ukraine to get rid of the "Nazis" there. This is Joseph Geobels level shit in reverse that plays upon long remembered persecution of Russian Jews by the Nazi's. I believe the majority of global citizens think Putin's actions in Ukraine are shameful and a good case can be made he's ordered the carrying out of acts that are war crimes and crimes against humanity. Given Putin's track record in shaping messages, this time around he's facing a stunning failure to do that.

I'm also astonished but less so and I'll get to that, about how the US and it's NATO allies are being made out as war mongers bent on the destruction of the Russian state. That is total bull-shit as cooperation between the EU and Russia on multiple levels over the last 15y has produced unparalleled economic benefits and improved standards of living to both Russia and it's former satellite states. I reject that line entirely. However, and I've posted about this before, Putin does have a legitimate ax to grind wrt NATO membership expansion, even large increases in EU member state numbers. There was a good deal of "in your face" stuff pitched Putin's way and it was at it's height right after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990 when Boris Yeltson appointed Putin as Russia's PM.

Add dilly dallying on Ukraine's part implementing provisions of the Minsk agreements after 2014 to his perceived "humiliation" of Russia while he was PM and you have a casus belli. That dilly dallying and lack of progress in implementing provisions of the Minsk agreements was countered by arming Russian Separatists in eastern Ukraine and was one of the reasons Putin seized Crimea in 2017. Taken together one can see, even though nothing like Ukraine is remotely justifiable, Putin has a burr under his saddle. While he's being characterized as "unhinged and off-his-rocker, I remain convinced he knows exactly what he's doing. The problem is that he's facing some pretty unexpected circumstances - the one's were' seeing a lot of coverage of that casts doubt on the Ukraine operational plan and its execution. Of course, you know my stand on this: you exploit those untoward circumstances to your advantage. As Don Brown would say, "solve your problems with aggression" .... attack.

[Dr. Strangelove]

The evidence is growing that the vast majority of the military was only told they were invading Ukraine about 24 hours before the invasion was to begin. That partly explains the lack of preparation and adequately supplying the troops.

Reporters on my timeline who claim to have sources say even most of the inner circle "in the know" believed the plan was to occupy the Donbas, nothing more. Blindly bombing Kyiv? Unthinkable.

I think most things suggest that Putin really believed that this would be all done and over within couple days. Why use 19 year old conscripts who have never even seen combat before as your spearhead if you are expecting a tough fight? Why bother selling the war to the public when you think it'll be over before they even have time to think about it?

[Obi-Jon]

I disagree on the burr under his saddle analogy. Putin is a former KGB goon brought up with a superiority mindset of do as I command or I will crush you (see Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Afghanistan, Georgia, Chechnya, Crimea, etc etc). He takes an amoral attitude toward any and all he considers his subordinates or inferiors, which is everyone else. He thinks he's a modern tsar and is entitled to whatever he wants. He only understands raw power. We should do everything we can to support a military coup or some internal regime change. Let his body be dragged through the streets and hung from a service station girder like Mussolini.

[CGVT]

What I find astonishing is the level of lying to the Russian people coming from Putin's government

Why should that even surprise you after the four years that this country just went through under the Mango Moron?

[Jeff Buchanan]

The Su-25 was developed for ground attack. They should be absolutely feasting on the Russian convoys.

There has to be some reason, those of us out there watching this thing unfold don't know about, that there hasn't been a Ukrainian air assault on what appears to be an incredibly vulnerable logistics tail with vulnerable troops massed along with it. You saw the video of what was described as "rockets' attacked by a Ukrainian drone I'm not entirely sure that was a rocket launching truck. Here's a side photo of Russia's most advanced mobile air defense system the BUK M-2 Viking. The unit that the Ukrainians targeted was camouflaged (under netting to obscure it from satellite imaging but not so well from a drone operating at 7-10K feet). See below a side, not an overhead shot of the Viking system.

My point is that SIGINT is going to detect the presence of these on the battle field and while we aren't going to know about this you can bet NATO and US intelligence gathering airborne and ground based platforms, the airborne ones operating out of airfields on NATOs eastern flank, are collecting reams of incredibly valuable intelligence and probably have a very good idea of what Russian battlefield air defense system looks like. It may be impressive and Ukraine is advised to avoid overflight for fear of giving the Russians shoot-down footage of Ukrainian aircraft.

air defense.JPG

[THE_WIZARD_]

The State of the Union Show...where Chairman Poopypants will tell us all is well...he'll tell us he beat Covid...he'll tell us about the great improvements in our environment...tell us that it's the best economy in 40 years...that the US has regained it's international respect again...that he has restored voting and civil rights that R's are taking away. He'll remind us of the horrors of January 6th and how we are a united people again. And yes the fake news will not challenge any of it.

Yawn. If I would want to watch a science fiction show there are much better options on tonight.