Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

WTI prices today, damn

[Tom W]

Over the weekend Eric Prince was being interviewed. He said there were 40 F-16s, 25 F-15s, and 10 A-10s in the process of being mothballed in Tucson. He proposed sending them to Ukraine.

I wonder about some sort of lend-lease arrangement in which the US or NATO loans air assets to Ukraine. A-10s would have a turkey shoot with that 40-mile long convoy.

Maybe Jeff can correct me, but handing over these aircraft isn't exactly like having Enterprise picking you up for a rental car. You kinda need a bit of training before you go out and take out the Russians.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Maybe Jeff can correct me, but handing over these aircraft isn't exactly like having Enterprise picking you up for a rental car. You kinda need a bit of training before you go out and take out the Russians.

Stealing their shitty armored vehicles is as easy as 1-2-3. Nastya below will explain

Ukrainian TikToker teaches how to drive captured Russian TANKS as guide shows best way to attack with Molotov cocktails (the-sun.com)

[Jeff Buchanan]

But Nato won't be unanimous and there isn't the votes in Congress for an air war.

Let's address the NATO unity issue first. There are two articles, 4 and 5, of the NATO charter that are in play here. Article 4 triggers consultations of NATO members if any NATO member is threatened by military aggression or terrorism. NATO members Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland have already triggered Article 4. After quick consultations, along with Slovakia, Hungary and Romania, these NATO countries of the eastern flank of NATO are currently being reinforced with about 7,000 US, 1,000 UK, and 350 German soldiers (I think that number is higher now), as well as troops from other NATO members. NATO has also activated the 40K strong NATO Rapid Reaction Force.

Article 5 is triggered if an incursion occurs in any NATO member country. From a troops and equipment on the ground standpoint, that hasn't happened and most experts don't think Putin has present designs on attacking any of the countries that comprise NATO's eastern flank in that way. Over time, yes but it will be an effort to absorb them through other means than direct military engagement (see Belarus). He's getting away with murder in Ukraine because it's a non-NATO member. I have very strong opinions that Putin's war in Ukraine has become a criminal act both actual and threatened. Do we sit by while Putin robs the bank and casually kills employees and customers inside? Fuck that.

IOW, I think there is plenty of justification to stop this bastard who's operating in Ukraine under the belief the West (NATO) fear a wider war, perhaps nuclear, and won't challenge him in the air or on the ground becasue of that fear. It's a bluff both in a conventional senses, and because that fucker brought it up, in the game of nuclear brinksmanship as I explained in a post to DSL last night. The reality is that there is a low probability that if NATO forces do challenge Russian forces in Ukraine - and I favor an air operation that takes out all the shit he's got in the open, poorly defended and on the ground - Putin will nuke anyone.

On Cyber attacks as justification for NATO responding militarily ...... Military analysts could consider a cyber-attack that targets Ukraine but spills over into the Balkan states an incursion that triggers article 5. An example would be a Polish hospital looses power to a spill-over cyber-attack from Russia on the polish electrical grid and can't care for patients.

That's where we are right now - no "military" incursion in the traditional sense but evidence that Russian hackers or hackers loyal to Putin's cause are active everywhere. Will that trigger NATO article 5? It is likely being discussed. NATO military planners cannot but have seen the huge prize to be won, probably at low cost, by destroying all this shit Putin has left out in the wide open spaces with the likelihood he'll quit Ukraine without going nuclear hihg enough to call his bluff. Side note: I mentioned the Cuban Missile crisis in a post last night as an example of nuclear brinksmanship that did not turn into a nuclear exchange between the US and USSR. What is not well known is the US negotiated a secret deal to remove nuclear war heads from Turkey in exchange for the USSR removing nukes from Cuba.

In the US we're talking about the War Powers Act that requires the President to notify congress 48h before he intends to commit US military assets overseas. Clinton violated the act when he committed US forces to the Balkan wars. Nothing came of it. So, let's ask this. There's an event on NTAO's eastern flank that triggers NATO Article 5. The European NATO nations are unlikely to sit on the sidelines if that happens. Look around. Are Europeans casually accepting what Putin is doing? Is the world accepting it? NATO would be all in..... and if that happens, the US congress is going to sit on it's hands and say fuck NATO, we're not coming?

[Dr. Strangelove]

Defense officials say Russia's huge 40 mile convoy has stalled and dealing with fuel and even food shortages. Morale very low. Have evidence that entire units have surrendered without a fight.

Russian move on Kyiv stalled for now, some signs of low morale, says U.S. official | Reuters

[Dr. Strangelove]

[froot loops]

Nobody should listen to Erik Prince any more than they should listen to Michael Flynn or Steve Bannon. That dude is scam artist looking for his next con.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Kyiv's main tv tower is directly next to Babi Yar, scene of one of the Holocaust's worst massacres (33,000 Jews were killed in a ditch over 2 days). It's now a Holocaust memorial. Sounds like in trying to take down the tower, at least one of the bombs/missiles hit part of the Memorial instead. Zelensky says 5 killed.

"Denazification"

[Jeff Buchanan]

Maybe Jeff can correct me, but handing over these aircraft isn't exactly like having Enterprise picking you up for a rental car. You kinda need a bit of training before you go out and take out the Russians.

Right, that's crazy talk. The Ukrainian Airforce, while it exists, has very few operational aircraft. NATO member states, OTH have both the equipment and pilot training to kick some serious Russian ass. It's either already deployed to Europe or in the process of deploying - 10 F35s just flew into Lithuania. NATO also has a robust ground based and airbased (AWACS) air command and control architecture in place within Europe that is functional and trains regularly with member state's pilots and aircraft.

I have no doubt in my my mind that if NATO acted on an Article 5 incursion, elected to target Russian supply lines with NATO member states pilots and aircraft and went up against whatever Russian air power they might have available overhead Ukraine, it would be no contest. My sense is that the Russians didn't deploy a large air and air defense contingent to Ukraine. They could do that and that might gum up the works especially as it relates to ground based air defense systems in the Russian inventory. That is why I believe time to employ a devastating air attack on vulnerable Russian supply lines is of the essence here.

[Mike]

WTI prices today, damn

Is 11% in one day bad?

[Hannibal]

This is the stupidest war since Michigan and Ohio fought over Toledo.

[Obi-Jon]

Hey we won that war. We got rid of Toledo and gained the UP.

[THE_WIZARD_]

We need to send the Wolverines to beat the Soviets again...

[Dr. Strangelove]

UPDATE: Russia managed to knock Kyiv tv off the air for all of 15 minutes. Several missiles barely damaged the main tower but they did manage to kill 5 civilians horrifically and also bomb a Holocaust Memorial while they were at it. Good Lord

Something that has to be gnawing at Putin is that, day by day, he is losing face with the Chinese.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Putin reminds me a lot of HARBAUGH!!!!!