Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Tom W]

Except the Ukraine isn’t, and never was, a member of NATO.

[Dr. Strangelove]

From that video, DSL, I notice the letter "V" used as livery. All other videos of Russian armor I have seen have used a "Z". Does that mean anything? In the middle east, we used only one marking to designate coalition forces.

There's been speculation about that online, Jon, going back to right before the invasion started. The thinking is they're different battle groups. I believe that any of the ones you see with a "Z" were part of the group attacking Kharkhiv in the east. That's why that CNN reporter stationed just across the border was seeing a lot of those. "V" may be the group tasked with taking Kiev.

[Da Geezer]

The aforementioned Ramzan Kadyrov, brutal dictator of Chechnya, posted a statement complaining that the war is going badly and current strategy isn't working. Urges Putin to stop waiting for Ukrainians to "come to their senses" and be more ruthless. Not good.

Yes. And 10,000 Chechens are spearheading the attack on Kyiv.

[froot loops]

This blunder by Putin is so bad that it's hard to imagine a face saving off ramp for him, but they need to try to find one.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Judging by the global negative reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine I'd say the collective efforts of all nations condemning Putin is producing a message that is extremely harmful to Russia both in the short and long term. We now have a micro (inside Ukraine) and macro, not altogether symbolic (West/democracy v. Russia/autocracy) conflict. I would hope the macro conflict does not accelerate but we need to be prepared that it might.

I'd say the most important turn of event this morning is Putin putting Russia's nuclear forces on alert. I posted yesterday about Putin doing something the public would see as unimaginable - an ICBM launch from inside Russia. We're seeing the first step in that actually happening. It's consistent with Putin's statements that cutting off access to SWIFT is tantamount to a declaration of war. Putin sees Mother Russia and himself as begin targeted for elimination. He'll react to that.

Unless we're not getting the entire picture, and we may not be, there's enough evidence out there that things are going badly for the Russian "necessary and special military operation." There's mounting evidence that operation itself was, both in planning and execution, a Russian cluster fuck. Yesterday, I compared the US military operation, Desert Storm, to this one in terms of how well the two operations achieved objectives. It's early but Allied forces participating in Desert Strom weren't offering unconditional peace talks on day 4 or announcing they were putting nuclear assets on alert becasue Saddam is kicking our asses in the "Mother of All Battles." If I have this right, the Russian are getting their asses kicked. Stories and images of the battle on the ground are just too convincing, routinely vetted and verified and paint a dismal picture of a Russian military debacle emerging. The information war is being waged and won by interested and participating parties that are taking steps to prevent Putin from doing that.

Some of what I've been reading lately looks back on Putin's (among other autocrats) beliefs that democracy is a threat to an autocratic way of governing. It's global advance needs to be confronted militarily to prevent, in Putin's case, Russia's decline as a world power and more specifically a challenge to his method of governance, leadership and personal power. Authors ask, how did it get to the point that Putin thinks he can take whatever he wants to achieve his objective of expanding Russian global influence and blunt the spread of freedom and democracy in Eastern Europe that is anathema to autocracy?

Democracy whimped out is the cause and you can make lists of who engineered the pacifism in the face of challenges and what events have led us to the point where autocracies are present in increasing numbers while democracies decline. OK, fine. What now? Putin is, if anything besides a brutal liar, a politician who knows when to strike his tent poles. The question is, can the democratically governed world get him to that point without pushing him to a nothing to lose decision to go nuclear. The thought of that is utterly terrifying but he's put that option on the table. As his goals become more and more unreachable in Ukraine, the US needs to be completely prepared for that eventuality and upgraded to a nuclear defense readiness status.

[Da Geezer]

Democracy whimped out is the cause and you can make lists of who engineered the pacifism in the face of challenges and what events have led us to the point where autocracies are present in increasing numbers while democracies decline. OK, fine. What now? Putin is, if anything besides a brutal liar, a politician who knows when to strike his tent poles. The question is, can the democratically governed world get him to that point without pushing him to a nothing to lose decision to go nuclear. The thought of that is utterly terrifying but he's put that option on the table. As his goals become more and more unreachable in Ukraine, the US needs to be completely prepared for that eventuality and upgraded to a nuclear defense readiness status.

This is not about pacificism, nor is it about whimping out. Those things are manifestations of the pantheism that has taken hold in the West which has been promoted as an alternative to Christianity. Specifically, whole populations have been convinced that the earth is going to end in 2100 if we don't drastically reduce our lifestyle. Those populations have submitted to totalitarian, globalist rule. How else do you explain much of Europe intentionally becoming dependent on the good graces of a Russian thug? A decision must have been made that global warming was more dangerous to citizens than subservience to Russia in energy and to China in economics would be.

Even now, Biden refuses to even discuss unleashing the American O+G industry. Doing so would help the US ameliorate high energy costs in the near term, and it would send a needed message to the globalists. What is more dangerous to Americans by 2100, nuclear war or climate change?

Fundamentally, Christianity views the nature of man to be depraved (evil). Pantheism, like all collectivist religions, views man's nature as essentially good. For the religious left, it will always be a matter of finding that right man to put in charge so we will have heaven on earth. All forms of collectivism believe this; be it Marxism, communism, socialism, fascism, or Islam. "Power tends to corrupt. Absolute power corrupts absolutely." Putin is exhibit 1 today.

This is why conservatives believe in dissipating power whenever possible. This is why the 10th Amendment was written. This is why having 50 separate elections for President is better than having those elections nationalized. Atomize everything, because this decreases any one man's power, and that is the best way to retain liberty.

[Obi-Jon]

I think Russia's nuclear saber rattling is for the non-nuclear nations. He's trying to stem the steady diet of effective arms from the West into Ukraine. His military is floundering and he knows it. I think he also realizes that a 'nothing to lose' decision spells the end of his regime. Like NoKo, his grip on power is the most important thing and he will do nothing to jeopardize that, including nuclear suicide. But if the option is on the table and he appears unstable enough to use it, it may scare other nations into not providing effective aid. Putin may be a brutal savage, but he isn't stupid. Ukraine is not worth losing power over.

So how do you keep him from the breaking point? Only talk of expelling Russian troops from Ukraine. Not a word about attacking or entering Russia. Give him the face saving choice of ordering the withdrawal, not being expelled.

[Obi-Jon]

Really Geez? While I agree with your last paragraph, the previous three are utter nonsense. The foundations of this current crisis has nothing to do with climate change, 'globalist rule', oil prices, religion or any other rightwing fruitcake bogeymen.

Christianity inherently evil? You must worship at the church of Alister Crowley. Christians believe that people are created in the image and likeness of God, but like a cracked mirror, give back a marred and distorted reflection. This is why there is baptism to wash away the stain of original sin and the need to follow the teachings of Christ. People are neither perfect nor inherently evil. Satanists believe man is basically evil. But I do give you style points for using political nonsense to distort Christianity.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Kind of incredible to think about but there are some estimates out there that Russia's KIA in less than a week of fighting is creeping close to the USA's death toll for an entire decade's worth of fighting in Iraq.

Russia is admitting today for the time that they have suffered casualties, although they aren't giving a number.

[Jeff Buchanan]

This is not about pacificism, nor is it about whimping out. Those things are manifestations of the pantheism that has taken hold in the West which has been promoted as an alternative to Christianity.

You make a leap, Geezer, that whimping out (which is just another way of characterizing pacifism) is a manifestation of pantheism. Terms and definitions of them is important here. We may have different interpretations. My main point is that US FP by failing to stand up to actions of assorted autocrats - the one example is BO drawing a red line over the use of chemical weapons in Syria and then not doing what was necessary to make Assad accountable for it when he did. Another is the Crimea land grab by Putin.

This time, Putin is paying now and will be paying going forward for his aggression against Ukraine - win, lose or negotiated settlement. I thik it's pretty clear the world has woken up to the costs of it's permissiveness and expectation that autocrats like Putin, XI, Maduro, Kim Jung-Un and others will join a global group hug. Fucking stupid, wishful thinking. So, I heartily endorse and agree with this part of your post:

For the religious left, it will always be a matter of finding that right man to put in charge so we will have heaven on earth. All forms of collectivism believe this; be it Marxism, communism, socialism, fascism, or Islam. "Power tends to corrupt. Absolute power corrupts absolutely." Putin is exhibit 1 today.

This is why conservatives believe in dissipating power whenever possible. This is why the 10th Amendment was written. This is why having 50 separate elections for President is better than having those elections nationalized. Atomize everything, because this decreases any one man's power, and that is the best way to retain liberty.

[Jeff Buchanan]

If interested in the details of what happens when Russia is "selectively" excluded from SWIFT here's some of them. We, the public, really can't grasp the implications to Russia of removal from a global system that facilitates trade - the payment for goods. In this Reuters article some insight is provided.

The movement of oil and commodities (grains and fertilizers) is going to be severely disrupted for at least days, possibly weeks, until a transition to alternative payment systems is achieved ..... and even that is not assured. Over the last decade, Russia has been trying to prepare for this eventuality and has developed a nascent digital payment system. China has one too that its use should the West shut Russia out of SWIFT I'm sure was a topic of discussion when Xi and Putin met pre-invasion.

Payments for LNG by Europe to Russia cannot be rerouted at all. Most think that no one will touch Russian oil out of fear of sanctions and support for Ukraine.

https://www.reuters.com/business/russia-faces-major-disruptions-oil-commodities-flows-without-swift-2022-02-27/

[froot loops]

The only think I know about SWIFT that I had to set up some SWIFT servers for a bank. The licensing was weird and the application install document was non-existent. At any rate I had no clue about the software and what it did but I set it up. There was an issue with inode setting that wasn't called out in the instructions. The lack of that setting caused the server to lock up and allegedly the bank couldn't transfer 4 million euro in a timely matter. Like everything in IT, the problem is always exaggerated. But I think of that every time the SWIFT system comes up in the media.

[Dr. Strangelove]

[Jeff Buchanan]

More reports from the Economist's journalists who are in country and on the ground. Kiev has a curfew in existence and journalists cannot be on the streets. So reporting from there is limited but from all accounts, it's quiet on the streets of Kiev with zero visible presence of Russian troops. The curfew was implemented through Monday morning stating that anyone on the streets of Kiev will be considered a Russian Saboteur, a Putin sympathizer or a member of Russian Special Forces Units.

Most of the action is occurring outside Kiev where reporters and videographers are everywhere looking for war stories and pictures. Some of them are graphic and when they do appear on line, the platform managers are taking them down. One reporter noted that she's pretty sure the Russian soldiers are "kids" and reports that when she asks the lower ranking ones, they were told they were going on a training exercise. Higher ranking captives - the ones in leadership roles at the company level - believed the bull-shit being passed down to their commanders that they were liberating the Ukrainians from the "Nazi, genocidals" in power. They thought they'd walk in as liberators. They had no idea they were going to have to fight an organized military supported by advance weaponry with armed civilian resistance out in full force. IOW, an infantry component, poorly trained, poorly led and completely unprepared for battle.

The Ukrainian uniformed military from what I can tell from footage and commentary are using small unit tactics with the units operating independently with a set of basic orders that define their operational zone. They are carrying and using multiple types of anti-armor weapons that appear to be exceedingly effective so far. If Russians are in your operational zone, you get a positive ID, kill them.

A word of caution: The Russian Army commanders have the capacity to adapt tactics and tailor equipment to the battle at hand - the one that appears for the moment they are losing. Yet, it appears to be the tactical advantage the Russian commanders are attempting to secure by pre-positioning infantry just outside Kiev, for one example city, to enable follow-on heavy armor operations. This is an urban campaign. Winning requires the right kind of armor. APCs are fine for carrying and pre-positioning infantry long distances to later join up with battle tanks. APCs are, compared to battle tanks, poorly armored and vulnerable to even small arms fire. They are no match for US Javalin anti-tank weapons, that are being extensively employed against them. It is no wonder we're seeing videos of the carnage to APCs and support vehicles on the Ukrainian roadsides along with reports of captured Russian infantry. But wait ......

What I have not seen a lot of are hordes of Russian battle tanks - there are three versions in the Russian tank inventory: T72s, T-64s and T-14s (the newest, most difficult to kill and most technologically advanced - a butt kicker especially well suited for urban warfare). I can't believe that US/NATO intelligence doesn't have an exact, or near to it, count of battle tanks and what type they are. They've been piling up just outside Ukraine for a month or more. Where are they now?

If Putin elects to conduct a siege of the three cities he appears to be targeting, then enter the city to claim ground, a slew of battle tanks might appear. Are these waiting in the wings? I'm not hearing reports that they are but Russia has them in overwhelmingly large numbers compared to Ukraine. I think the biggest risk to Ukraine if facing an armada of tanks trying to enter Kiev is that they can do unbelievable damage to buildings and kill scores of civilians by setting up and firing rounds of cluster munitions at will into the target area they ultimately want to seize. When they are properly supported with infantry and attack helicopters they are exceedingly hard to neutralize and offer the advantage of rapid advance that's hard to stop. I actually think that the threat of this circumstance is exactly why you're hearing about thousands (collectively) of advanced anti-tank and antiaircraft weapons to be delivered to Ukraine. Ukraine, if it is to survive, has to at least neutralize/reduce the impact of a fixed tank battle for the city of Kiev.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I was out last night at one of our local social hang outs and had a discussion with a friend who was truly scared that Russia would nuke us. He said, "2 years of the pandemic and now WWIII." He wept. I think a lot of people are frightened so, Putin is getting what he wants. Look at me, I'm a tough guy, you should be scared shitless.

Jon mentioned what actually goes on with the US Nuclear capability. I also read a piece today that might be helpful in allaying the natural fear that arises when a calculating, fearless of consequences, ruthless and brutal killer like Putin that has his finger on the nuclear button says, get ready to launch mother fuckers.

The way this guy explained it was that the state of nuclear readiness by treaty (not that Putin cares about those things but still....) that a nuclear power is supposed to follow has several levels. All of these levels are designed to allow a country that possesses nukes to respond and defend themselves from another signatory country to existing arms control agreements who launches a nuke preemptively or more likely a rogue country who is not a signatory launches one (e.g., NK)

The analogy he described in this case is that the mechanism to launch a missile carrying a nuclear warhead sits idle and it's wires are disconnected - a low state of readiness. A nuke can't be launched without going through the process of connecting the wires first which only allows commands for a launch to go through a second level process. That's been the case for at least the last 30y among signatory nations to nuclear arms control agreements, all of these to prevent an accidental launch and onset of a global nuclear war..

What Putin did is to order the wires be connected. It's political theater. The public doesn't know how Russia might operate when it is at this newer readiness level but the US probably has a pretty good idea. To be fair, we are no closure to nuclear war today than we were before Putin made his announcement that is because launching a nuclear preemptive attack or in response to an ongoing attack is a process. There are switches in that process that have to activated only when certain conditions are met. Smart people negotiated these things during the cold war, Putin is aware of them and is not likely to abridge any of them - he's a belligerent and aggressive chess player but he's not stupid.

One thing the guy that wrote the piece I read on this said that while Putin has sole authority to launch a nuke, one switch that has to be activated in Russia, and there are others, a nuclear weapon has to be detonated on or above Russian territory. While the US has no barriers for the President to order the launch of a nuke, there are checks and balances to the authority to launch one preemptively that by agreement parallel the limits that the Russian president has to deal with. In researching this post I found this document whihc if you're interested is pretty good in how it explains how all this nuclear deterrence stuff that emerged during the cold war just needs to be dusted off and is still in play.

https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/IF10521.pdf