Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Jeff Buchanan]

The DJIA climbed 500 + points in afternoon trading and for a change held onto those gains. Investors saw opportunity and bought the lows instead of selling the highs as they've started doing recently. Still down sharply YTD (2K points) but, taking the longer view, the DOW is up 5K over the last 12 months. Tech made big gains today also after getting obliterated early in the last two weeks.

I think the Feds interest rate moves that will occur over this year - probably an increase of about 1% in the Federal Funds Rate - is already baked into the stock markets. Right now, in terms of consumer buying power, inflation is the bigger worry compared to, for example, auto loan or mortgage rates going up. Economists I'm reading are saying take the hit now. Stop putting it off. While rising interest rates might slow growth and consumer confidence, uncontrolled inflation is far worse.

The federal funds rate is the central interest rate in the U.S. financial market. It influences lots of things such as longer- term interest rates - mortgages, business loans, and savings, all of which are important to consumer wealth and confidence...... but inflation will eat up your consumer buying power faster than a hike in mortgage rates will increase a monthly payment on a hoped for new home purchase.

If you're interested, if you you're shopping for a $300K mortgage at 2.75% APR and mortgage interest rates increases to 3.75%, a monthly P&I goes up about $130. If, OTH, if a grocery cart costs $200 and inflation goes from a nominal 2% to 5% annualized over the year, that same cart will cost $272 or about $864 more money for groceries over the year. Add that kind of increase to transportation costs, fuel costs, insurance costs, etc. and the annual increase in maintaining a household goes out of sight.

My point is, inflation is a wealth and consumer confidence killer over time. The cost of inflation pales in comparison to what short term downward pressures on the stock market that interest rate hikes produce. Markets may swoon when rates go up every quarter. My take, though, is that downward pressures are already baked in and you just experienced them in the market since January 1st. Most of the time they are short lived. That's because there are more signs that the US and global economies are strong and will continue to experience growth than there are that they are heading for a recession and will shrink.

[Dr. Strangelove]

The NASDAQ has been getting pounded far worse than the Dow, although not Apple. Not surprising with rates going up.

Might've missed the best moment already but might not be a bad idea to throw a little money into a bank stock with a good dividend right now.

[THE_WIZARD_]

You need pounded.

[Mike]

Let’s leave his wife out of this…

[Jeff Buchanan]

This is from a UK website and magazine called "Wired." Its in the UK and for those that have been following this, the UK has zero COVID restrictions as of yesterday. Yep, ZERO.

This article talks about the mental transition required to deal with this rapid change. I get there is one and that there are people who have truly suffered chronic stressors. When you start year three of this thing with unrelenting restrictions on your mobility and social interactions that change almost weekly and couple that with loosing family, friends and acquaintances to COVID, yeah, it's rough.

I don't have a lot of empathy. My wife says its because I've never had a difficult life, never struggled. There's something to that but a 20y career in the Marine Corps coping with plenty of stress sort-of made me immune to it. I'm also a proponent of the philosophy that your life, it's success, failure, shitiness depends in large measure on the kinds of decisions you make along the way.

Freddie Mercury's "We are the Champions encapsulates that .......

So it's been with COVID. Never feared it, hated government defining what my risk tolerance should be and did not experience personal loss associated with COVID. Chronic stress didn't affect me and that had a lot had to do with the positive attitude I kept through writing about COVID. Therapeutic I guess. So, I looked at this article with a sort of "suck-it-up" view point as unfair as that might really be for a lot of people. Importantly, it said this:

One of the consequences of the government lifting restrictions is that the onus to take health precautions will fall from the collective to the individual. “As we move to thinking about Covid as an endemic risk instead of a pandemic, it comes along with this shift from a public health approach of ‘What can we all do to help reduce the systemic impact of this event?’ to this being one of all the risks that we're trying to reduce for ourselves,”..........

A hearty NO SHIT. I've been doing that, and so have many who post here, since pretty close to the beginning of the pandemic.

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/livi...b2da6e075b25bf

[Obi-Jon]

The Economist (!!!) rips into the GOP for its love of Trump lies and infatuation. Perhaps REAL conservatives are coming to their senses.

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/01/01/how-to-think-about-the-threat-to-american-democracy

[lineygoblue]

What the world needs is more President Brandon's. Things have never been better. And with Karmella Giggles waiting in the wings, the future is bright. The dems showed us all how to bring in the most qualified and talented people available to lead the country. I can't wait to see Stacey Abrams being sworn in to the Supreme Court. Great days ahead.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Yesterday's Economist but more good news. It seems by a number of indices the global economy, despite the constant drumbeat of COVID doomsaying and stay in your basements messaging from PH officials and governments, is humming along at a steady clip. Forward looking analysis is also positive ........

Nicolas Woloszko of the oecd, a rich-country think-tank, produces a weekly gdp index for 46 middle- and high-income economies, using data from Google-search activity on everything from housing and jobs to economic uncertainty. Adapting his index, which has been a good predictor of the official numbers, we estimate that gdp across these countries is about 2.5% below its pre-pandemic trend (see chart 1). That is a little worse than in November, when gdp was 1.6% below trend, but better than a year ago, when output was nearly 5% below it.


A few factors explain why the worst fears about the variant’s economic effects have so far not come to pass. The great uncertainty with Omicron relates to whether the bad (greater transmissibility) outweighs the good (lower virulence), and thus whether there is a damaging surge in hospitalisations and deaths from covid-19. So far, though, few governments apart from China’s, which is still wedded to its zero-covid strategy, seem to believe that additional drastic restrictions on people’s movements are required.

A quantitative measure produced by ubs, a bank, ranks global restrictions from zero to ten and finds that the average global score has risen from 3 to 3.5 in recent weeks. Only one rich country, the Netherlands, moved into a proper lockdown (though this was relaxed on January 26th). ubs also finds that the share of international travel routes with covid-related entry restrictions, at 31% globally, has barely budged since October.

More people also seem happy to take risks. Goldman Sachs produces an “effective” lockdown index, which takes into account not only governments’ diktats but also people’s choices. So far its global index has tightened to about the same level as during the Delta wave of last summer, despite four to five times as many daily infections. Even in places where the rapid spread of covid-19 is a novelty, people are largely carrying on as normal. Cases in San Francisco were in the low double digits for most of the autumn. Although the city now averages about 2,000 a day, gyms and restaurants remain busy. Our global “normalcy index”, which looks at how people’s behaviour has changed relative to pre-covid norms, dropped in recent weeks, but now seems to be recovering.

Today’s case numbers suggest that about 5-10% of Americans currently have covid-19. Such high prevalence has created a new difficulty that did not exist with previous variants: a widespread absence of workers. According to a survey conducted at the turn of the year by the Census Bureau, 8.8m Americans were out of work either because they were caring for someone with covid-19 or because they had the disease themselves.

I thought that last paragraph goes along way in explaining the lingering perception of a tight labor market. Its not so much because of the "great resignation" (although that did play a year ago) but rather people calling in sick siince Omicron arrived on the scene. My opinion is that has a lot to do with the COVID fear factor that tends to make employees stay home with minor symptoms that most of us would continue to show up for work with.

I'm to the point that I believe spreading SARS2 for most people is no different than spreading the common cold or flu bug. There are exceptions by risk group but those are no different than the at risk population for serious illness from influenza or pneumonia. We know who they are - they should take appropriate precautions. Anyway, this is the kind of journalism that is moving the COVID fear needle toward zero. Keep it up.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Last night Trump called for massive protests in major cities if "vicious" prosecutors lay a finger on him. And he dangled out the possibility of pardoning the Jan 6 rioters once he becomes President again. Hooray!

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/30/us/politics/trump-speech-texas.html

[THE_WIZARD_]

STFU

[Mike]

Last night Trump called for massive protests in major cities if "vicious" prosecutors lay a finger on him. And he dangled out the possibility of pardoning the Jan 6 rioters once he becomes President again. Hooray!

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/30/u...ech-texas.html

Would those be the first ever presidential pardons for trespassing?

[Dr. Strangelove]

The worst kind of trespassing of all...the seditious kind!!!

[Jeff Buchanan]

I'm finding it amusing watching the Chicoms trying to pull off the Winter Olympics as if it some grand affair highlighting the benefits of Communism like Xi and the gangsters that surround him practice it ..... look at how great we are. Let's see: Chinese Citizens locked down and out of attending the games. A crazy-ass approach to the COVID Pandemic that has allowed the Communists to further intrude in and control the lives of the Chinese the government claims that they are advancing their well being? Right.

Not a lot of global citizens will realize how the rosy picture the Chicoms want to portray the games and their country contradicts the facts on the ground. There is little recognition globally that China, as it is ruled by the Communists in charge there, is a scourge to human existence no matter how hard the Chicoms try to build that place up. That's because the world is full of leftists and left leaning governments that shackle their citizens and limit what they can read and learn advancing their own self interests and propaganda above the truth. It's no wonder people just stand by and pay no attention to the loss of freedom that is spreading world wide.

Russia and Putin is from the same mold as Xi ..... he's a fucking Communist among other characteristics that freedom loving people should take note of. It's been asked here what's in it for me if the West mounts a strong counter, militarily if necessary, to a Russian incursion into Ukraine? Well, not much when one is immersed in the got to have it now mentality. Long term? The erosion of democracy and the freedoms that form of government, for the people, is happening on a scale that should give rise to questions like, can American survive as a beacon of freedom for the world's citizens encumbered by authoritarian rule? Can it survive itself given on-going threats posed to it internally?

The question what's in it for me should be answered in the context of those two questions I posed above.

...... but, I'm pretty sure no one will have to worry about doing that. The UN Security Council is convening this week, with Putin insisting he's not going to invade, and are sure to sort all of this out. Whatever they come up with talking about it will very likely convince Vlad to pull back the 100K troops he has on the ground surrounding Ukraine.

[Mike]

And on top of all that, Michigan's top 4 scorers are headed to Beijing to participate in the most farcical Olympics in history. They'll be gone for a series with MSU and a showdown for first place with OSU. Fuck China.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Americans have gone soft living in their false reality chasing shit they think has value. Spoiler alert. There are ruthless men out there who don't give a crap that you've found ways for you and your families to be in the 1%. These men will rally those who are outraged at your comfort and wealth that you enjoy and take it away .....unless you're willing to answer a call to stop them.