Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[THE_WIZARD_]

meh ... fried Spam if I'm like, starving. Otherwise, keep it away from me.

SPAM is a delicacy in Hawai'I bitch!

[THE_WIZARD_]

Wiz loves his liverwurst, onion, & limburger sammiches...it helps "encourage" other human beings to steer well clear of him

Oddly enough I don't need help in that area...

[Jeff Buchanan]

I remember a time when the solution to the problem was "just a two week shutdown to flatten the curve".

Looks like China thought of nearly everything

This quote is from another thread. I brought it over here because my response to it belongs here.

First, I've heard the arguments that the Chinese built SARS2 in Wuhan and released it as a bio-weapon. Given outcomes over the last two years - social and economic - this theory seems logical. It's been about as effective in creating global chaos as detonating a nuke at some geographic flash point involving a confrontation between western democratic powers and the Communist Chinese with China possessing the capacity of plausible deniability not present with a nuclear attack.

Objective, non-biased, agenda free research I've been reading overwhelmingly indicates that SARS2 is of zoonotic origin. There's a small chance that research is wrong and that gain of function research in the Wuhan lab led to the direct infection of Wuhan lab workers by exposure to lab created SARS2 who then traveled and spread SARS2. Other than advancing the bio-weapon theory on social media platforms there is zero evidence in the public domain that supports it. I won't exclude that there is classified intelligence that would support the bio-weapon theory.

My advise is to not associate yourself with the bio-weapon theory but different strokes for different folks.

Second, I just finished reading an encouraging Omicron related exchange done in an interview with a leading US epidemiologist by a journalist writing for the Intillegencer. Its a continuation of a dialogue undertaken by the Intelligencer to provide insight into the work by virologists and epidemiologist regarding the SARS2 pandemic. I've been following it for a while now. Of course, it's pay-walled through a NYTs subscritpion.

The current debate among these scientists involves the seriousness of Omicron in producing higher levels of morbidity and mortality. There's a lot of math involved that gets into the calculation of R(t) - the spot measurement of rate of SARS2 growth (the slope of the curve). The lay press has been making hay on scaring people about the almost vertical slope of this line compared to the initial lower R(t) of Delta (3ish compared to 1.5) without describing that in the context of hospitalizations and CFR. While the math allows for models that are projecting massive numbers of new COVID cases and by extension increased numbers of hospitalizations and deaths (implying these rates are linear and equal in acceleration), that is turning out to be as false as it was with Delta. Moreover, based on current data from the UK and SA, Omicron is proving to produce milder COVID symptoms than Delta when controlling the data for all mitigation measures including vaccines.

One of the important points in the interview related to the above is that the attack rates (slopes of the curves) for new cases, hospitalizations and CFR are divergent with attack rates for new cases accelerating much faster than for hospitalizations and CFRs ..... and that's not all. The models that project these three curves are linear and ignore confounding factors that impact the attack rates and shapes of the curves - there are age skewing (significant age cohort differences in disease severity) and population immune system characteristic impacts between countries/regions. While herd immunity plays, it is much more complicated than that. IOW, in the US for example, how the population of NY v. FL compares in immunity either by virtue of having previously acquired infection, via vaccines, exposure risks or innate immune response is different and affects how many people actually get infected, have mild symptoms v. serious ones or die.

This is turning out to be a big deal and beyond the concept of herd immunity from previous infection, rendering the models that are projecting Omicron as the death star flatly incorrect. No surprise there but what should be accounted for by the public is that there are multiple sources that are calculating future outcomes and we're not hearing about these from the lay press. The reason for that is those more optimistic and probably more scientifically based models don't fit the current fear narrative's political and marketing agendas. I'm pretty sure Joe Biden wants the fear narrative to be advanced and out-sized to promote getting vaccinated and boosted. I think that's counterproductive. Encouragement based on facts is, IMO, much more useful.

The current thinking is that the rapid rise and then precipitous fall of COVID, both from the original SARS2 and from it's variants, as measured by new case numbers, can be explained by the positive and difficult to measure impact on immunity of the multiple factors in play beyond the concept of herd immunity from previous infection. The virus runs out of potentially vulnerable hosts, those rendered immune to it, and rapidly declines as measured by new cases. This theory therefore predicts Omicron will peak, then fall, in this case more rapidly, in a predictable way just as every other variant has demonstrated. This appears to be already happening in the UK and SA. As for using those two countries as guideposts to what will happen in the US, the differences in the actual comparative immunity to Omicron among the three is only now being explored. The interviewee went as far as to say the peak and fall of new cases of Omicron in the US will be somewhere between the UK and SA.

That brings me to the question of how agencies in the US should react to Omicron? If nothing is done will Omicron produced COVID just burn out? Probably not and a case can be made for rational mitigation measures involving precautions taken individually by an informed population. That approach may be absolutely the best one. Why? Because we are seeing how the variants behave and this is probably the global future. New variants will appear, new cases will rise rapidly and then fall precipitously. It is probably accurate to say, we'll get better at preventing serious illness and deaths.

In light of the foregoing, I remain strongly opposed to government mandates that close venues and restrict mobility. Pro sports are already adjusting COVID protocols for players, coaches and staff. The trend is to lessen the impact of them on playing scheduled games and the concomitant loss of revenue from ticket sales and TV contracts. Unfortunately, games have already been cancelled/rescheduled, ostensibly to reduce contacts, interaction and disease spread. I can make a solid argument that is unnecessary and is probably nothing more than virtue signaling.

[Kapture1]

I don't think it was an intentional bio weapon, I think that it escaped from the lab were they were fucking with it.

[Mike]

Me too.

[iam416]

I don’t know if the release was intentional, but I have almost no doubt it originated in that lab.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I don’t know if the release was intentional, but I have almost no doubt it originated in that lab.

The problem in proving that is lack of data. The problem with the lack of data is plainly the fault of the Chicoms. So, yeah, this is a believable if not objectively unsupportable. That's because the Chicoms have stonewalled requests to release critical information that would nail down who patient #1 was. They know. They're not ever going to officially tell. At the expense of the life of an insider Chinese virologist and/or his family who might snitch the Chicoms out, we're not going to find out.

OTH, the zoonotic origin has a lot of good evidence. Admittedly, that there isn't a well supported countervailing theory of lab origin is due almost entirely to Chicom intentional deceitfulness.

[iam416]

There’s no evidence of zoonotic origins. They’ve yet to find a single animal with the virus. From the wet markets to the caves. Meanwhile, one of the 3 labs in the works studying Covid and gain of function is in Wuhan. Unless and until someone disproves the fucking obvious that’s what I’m believing.

[Hannibal]

OTH, the zoonotic origin has a lot of good evidence. Admittedly, that there isn't a well supported countervailing theory of lab origin is due almost entirely to Chicom intentional deceitfulness.

What's the evidence?

[THE_WIZARD_]

Ask Fauci.

[lineygoblue]

It just seems very fishy to me that when Covid came ashore in the US, it first appeared in a nursing home in Washington state, then it seemed to show up on both the east and west coast, brought in by air travelers thru airports. Here in Michigan, the first transmissions were traced back to Metropolitan Airport in Detroit.

My comment was intended to be humorous, but its also this nagging gut feeling that I have that this was more than just someone eating a bat, and then passing it on to the entire world somehow. And China's absolute refusal to work with the west to fight the problem is very troubling. Its almost like they're enjoying this.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Not completely sure about the source but some surprise vaccine news

https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2021/12/us-army-creates-single-vaccine-effective-against-all-covid-sars-variants/360089/

[foxhopper]

Omicrom is the new airborn vaccine.

[foxhopper]

Not completely sure about the source but some surprise vaccine news

https://www.defenseone.com/technolog...riants/360089/

Lol. They are making it easier. Choice between trusting government, pharma, or the military.

I have more trust in surviving Wizards famous liverworst and onion samich.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Hell to the YEAH!