COVID News: I'm seeing a significant shift in federal messaging that emphasizes that we're not going to eradicate SARS2 in the US. Whether this drives a decrease in the national and local media platforms negative narrative is TBD. I think it has potential to do that...... hasn't happened in FL yet and that has a lot to do with wanting to pillory Desantis.
On the same note an article appeared in my NYT's news feed this morning that the risk of a breakthrough reinfection in vaccinated people is grossly overblown ..... like 1 in 5000 chance of it and that is reinfection not serious illness or death which is probably a 1 in 100,000 type of thing.
The basis for this announcement from the federal level is that it was believed that the viral load in the orophyranx of those afflicted with a break through infection (with Delta) was the same or higher than the viral load in a newly infected un-vaxed person. Based on three studies (I've read them), it's not. IOW if you do catch it you probably won't know it and probably aren't spreading it to the degree the unvaxed might.
It's also been determined from emerging data in the US that you are nearly 10X more likely to become infected with SARS2 D if unvaccinated than vaccinated ........ this is a different way of looking at the previous stat that unvaxed had a 2% chance of becoming seriously ill or dying from COVID and about a 10% chance of catching it at all. Those are low chances.
Let's look at that. The good news is that in FL, new case numbers are predictably declining (see yesterday's COVID post as to the irrelevance of that) along with % positivity. Deaths remain high (FL leads the nation in deaths per 100K but has a CFR of 1.3, the global average.) Sunday, the number of new cases was a bit over 11,000, down from 17K. If there is a one to ten relationship re vax v. unvaxed catching D, for every 1 new case, 10 of those will be unvaxed or about 10K new cases among the 11K are getting it and spreading it around to others (remember D has a much higher R(0) than A.
There are two cohorts of consequence emerging in the debate about vaccines mandates and the impact on making COVID regionally manageable. - an unvaxed cohort that contributes to the spread of the virus at a much higher rate than a less risky vaccinated cohort.
Just more proof that if we want PH authorities who are facing "do something" pressures not to do anything to restrict mobility or social contact, case numbers have to fall and stay low. The only way to do that is through vaccines ...... or, sure, we could have governments implementing mask mandates, closing schools and kids sports, quarantining the infected, canceling big gatherings and fall festivals, all of that shit.
On the same note an article appeared in my NYT's news feed this morning that the risk of a breakthrough reinfection in vaccinated people is grossly overblown ..... like 1 in 5000 chance of it and that is reinfection not serious illness or death which is probably a 1 in 100,000 type of thing.
The basis for this announcement from the federal level is that it was believed that the viral load in the orophyranx of those afflicted with a break through infection (with Delta) was the same or higher than the viral load in a newly infected un-vaxed person. Based on three studies (I've read them), it's not. IOW if you do catch it you probably won't know it and probably aren't spreading it to the degree the unvaxed might.
It's also been determined from emerging data in the US that you are nearly 10X more likely to become infected with SARS2 D if unvaccinated than vaccinated ........ this is a different way of looking at the previous stat that unvaxed had a 2% chance of becoming seriously ill or dying from COVID and about a 10% chance of catching it at all. Those are low chances.
Let's look at that. The good news is that in FL, new case numbers are predictably declining (see yesterday's COVID post as to the irrelevance of that) along with % positivity. Deaths remain high (FL leads the nation in deaths per 100K but has a CFR of 1.3, the global average.) Sunday, the number of new cases was a bit over 11,000, down from 17K. If there is a one to ten relationship re vax v. unvaxed catching D, for every 1 new case, 10 of those will be unvaxed or about 10K new cases among the 11K are getting it and spreading it around to others (remember D has a much higher R(0) than A.
There are two cohorts of consequence emerging in the debate about vaccines mandates and the impact on making COVID regionally manageable. - an unvaxed cohort that contributes to the spread of the virus at a much higher rate than a less risky vaccinated cohort.
Just more proof that if we want PH authorities who are facing "do something" pressures not to do anything to restrict mobility or social contact, case numbers have to fall and stay low. The only way to do that is through vaccines ...... or, sure, we could have governments implementing mask mandates, closing schools and kids sports, quarantining the infected, canceling big gatherings and fall festivals, all of that shit.
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