Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Hannibal]

If history is any guide, 2022 won't matter. The Republicans won't do anything.

[Dr. Strangelove]

My opinion on DeSantis is still that he'll step aside if Trump runs. If he does manage to beat Trump in a primary it will be horribly ugly and nasty and Trump's core base holds grudges. DeSantis can finish an entire second term as Governor and leave office just as the 2028 race is starting. He'll barely be 50 years old by the time of the 2028 election.

If Trump had a traditional Republican base I would think that the 2022 midterms would be a slaughter for the Dems but so many Republicans are now low propensity voters that I could see things going either way. I don't know if something like the Georgia Specials is going to happen again or what.

[Dr. Strangelove]

The trouble is Trump has very, very little incentive to announce he's running until very late in the cycle. Right now he can fundraise like crazy with little to no regulatory oversight in how the money's being spent. That ends the moment he declares..

[Mike]

I know its very early still but I can't imagine Biden finishes his term. I never thought he'd run for reelection but I figured he could meander through one term. If this situation in Afghanistan goes as badly as I think it can (and will), it's time to talk about removing him.

Apparently the UK and France have the capacity to go out into Kabul and escort their citizens to the airport. John Kirby says our agreement with the Taliban is working just fine! Every American that wants to leave can get to the airport. Bullshit.

https://nypost.com/2021/08/19/pentag...fghan-rescues/

John Noonan, a national security adviser to Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), disputed the Pentagon’s claim in a series of Twitter posts earlier Thursday.

“Have been speaking with evacuees directly on the ground in Kabul,” he tweeted in the morning. “Taliban not honoring their word. Obstructing ingress points to the airport, beating and harassing evacuees, scaring many off. US troops prohibited from expanding perimeter or helping. Many still stuck.”

“Sincere respect to DoD,” Noonan added in a later tweet, “but we have spoken directly with evacuees on the ground who have had backs and hands broken and concussions from the Taliban. That’s today. Current. We have been sent text photos of Taliban checkpoints obstructing movement to airport. They aren’t complying.”

In another sign of the disconnect between the US and its allies, the Telegraph reported Wednesday that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson had tried to reach President Joe Biden by phone beginning Monday morning, UK time, but had not gotten through until Tuesday evening.

[Hannibal]

There are several important points here:

CFR is burdened with statistical errors in calculation and data points that describe the numerator and denominator in the calculation.

The CFR here is between 0.23 and 0.25 - see above.

Best estimates of what actual CFR will be range from 0.33 to 0.05. The broad consensus is that the actual CFR will turn out to be less than 2%.

The important point to me is this -- the "social responsibility" aspect of Covid is over. Done. The vaccine works, or at least it keeps you alive and out of the hospital. It doesn't prevent spread of the virus though, so there's no point in imposing vaccine mandates on people who have made a decision not to get it. Children who cannot get the vaccine are not at risk from the virus in large numbers. Masks don't fucking work, or at the very least, they don't work in the population at large when you are talking about mask mandates and all of the ways in which the population will not use masks properly.

I'm fully vaccinated. I'm done. Period. Maybe I'll get a booster some day if a variant develops that my current immunity does no good against, but I'm absolutely never wearing a mask again unless I have to do so to stay employed or travel. No more Covid mandates. 17 months of this bullshit and counting.

[iam416]

My opinion on DeSantis is still that he'll step aside if Trump runs. If he does manage to beat Trump in a primary it will be horribly ugly and nasty and Trump's core base holds grudges. DeSantis can finish an entire second term as Governor and leave office just as the 2028 race is starting. He'll barely be 50 years old by the time of the 2028 election.

If Trump had a traditional Republican base I would think that the 2022 midterms would be a slaughter for the Dems but so many Republicans are now low propensity voters that I could see things going either way. I don't know if something like the Georgia Specials is going to happen again or what.

DeSantis still has to win in 2022. I don't think that's a given.

[Hannibal]

DeSantis still has to win in 2022. I don't think that's a given.

Absent a bombshell scandal, it's a given.

[Dr. Strangelove]

DeSantis still has to win in 2022. I don't think that's a given.

That is true. If the Dems nominate Crist they have a decent enough shot. If DeSantis loses he's finished and there's really no one with a prayer against Trump in 2024. So you'd better hope DeSantis is reelected, heh

[iam416]

The important point to me is this -- the "social responsibility" aspect of Covid is over. Done. The vaccine works, or at least it keeps you alive and out of the hospital. It doesn't prevent spread of the virus though, so there's no point in imposing vaccine mandates on people who have made a decision not to get it. Children who cannot get the vaccine are not at risk from the virus in large numbers. Masks don't fucking work, or at the very least, they don't work in the population at large when you are talking about mask mandates and all of the ways in which the population will not use masks properly.

I'm fully vaccinated. I'm done. Period. Maybe I'll get a booster some day if a variant develops that my current immunity does no good against, but I'm absolutely never wearing a mask again unless I have to do so to stay employed or travel. No more Covid mandates. 17 months of this bullshit and counting.

I agree with most of this. The "social responsilibity" aspect is fully done. It's now a matter of individual choice. The costs of Covid right now are being PRIMARILY borne by the unvaccinated. Yes, there are systemic costs and all that, But, the people who are paying with their lives are unvaccinated. "Your choice, dude" as far as I'm concerned.

I will absolutely get a booster. I'm not at all scare of the roughly 0.3% chaince my age group has of dying if unvaccinated, but it's almost zero cost to me to decrease that likelihood by 10x or even 100x. And I'm fairly certain my immune system will need some sort of booster.

[Cody_Russell]

A LOT can happen between now and then. It’s been an eventful 18 months… There’s what, 26 months until the 2022 midterm? Oof.

Biden’s net approval rating on 538 has dipped from a high of 19.4 in January to now 4.0. It’s realistically where it should be after the honeymoon period. Perhaps it sinks more based on current events.

Trump will run in 2024 if he thinks he can win. If Trump runs, no doubt he wins the Rs ticket IMO.

Biden… depends on how his term and health goes for the next 40 months. I don’t think the Ds would just hand it over to Harris because of her popularity. Maybe. The establishment could have another in mind like Mayor Pete. Select someone from February 2020 that was forced to drop out to pave the way for Joe.

[iam416]

That is true. If the Dems nominate Crist they have a decent enough shot. If DeSantis loses he's finished and there's really no one with a prayer against Trump in 2022. So you'd better hope DeSantis is reelected, heh

Old white male, or up and coming progressive black female? Heh, who will the Ds nominate?

Yeah, Crist-DeSantis would be a battle. Florida is probably roughly +2-3 for Rs, so DeSantis has some leeway. And, remember, he barely beat Gillum.

[Mike]

That is true. If the Dems nominate Crist they have a decent enough shot. If DeSantis loses he's finished and there's really no one with a prayer against Trump in 2022. So you'd better hope DeSantis is reelected, heh

I agree that it's not a given, mostly because of the hammering he's taking in the press for his stance on masks in schools. He needs to hope that the spikes and dips in Covid #s coincide well with his campaign next summer and fall.

If Trump wants to run again (likely), I don't think DeSantis will get in the ring. Wait it out another round. At some point in a hotly contested campaign things will get testy and if I'm DeSantis, I'm not about to piss off 30% of the voters in this country that you will definitely need down the road. And at this point, if Trump runs in 2024 and the D candidate is either Biden or Harris, he will wipe the floor with them.

[iam416]

And at this point, if Trump runs in 2024 and the D candidate is either Biden or Harris, he will wipe the floor with them.

I really disagree with that. There's is no amount of time that can pass that will erase the memory of his completely detestable November, December and January.

So, there's no way he "wipes the floor" with anyone. I mean, literally, anyone. I don't think he could win the popular vote against AOC.

[Mike]

Oh, yeah. How soon I forget. I hope like hell he doesn't run but I just don't think his narcissism will allow him to sit out.

[Tom W]

I tend to think that Trump came to the realization at some point that even he couldn't fix the mess in Washington- at least not as President. That's not to say that he's going to stop trying, but that he's just going to find other players to do the job for him.