Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[froot loops]

And if the national debt is such a big issue, it should reveal itself through interest rates. 30 years ago when the national debt became a huge issue in politics, it was because the debt accumulated had actual impacts on those rates.

It's why Powell was a good to great appointment by Trump, he seems to have learned the lesson of the post crash of 2008 where the government did way too little fiscally and screwed up monetarily in 2015.

[froot loops]

I watched the press conference. It sure is nice to have adults in charge again.

I didn't see it, did he talk about bleach injection as a possible COVID cure?

[Hannibal]

Fuel consumption is not back up to pre-pandemic levels. Refineries are still cut way back and some of them shut down permanently. Point being, gas prices didn't shoot up 80 cents per gallon in the past four months because people suddenly started driving again at pre-pandemic levels.

[CGVT]

I didn't see it, did he talk about bleach injection as a possible COVID cure?

Nope. And he didn't belittle his political opponents, claim that reporters were fake news when he didn't like a question or storm off in a huff either.

I guess he just doesn't know how to be a real President.

[froot loops]

Historic rates of inflation can be found here. There's no number for March yet but Feb was 1.7%. That's lower than all of 2018 and all but 2 months of 2017. The tax cuts possibly helped increase it even more than the stimmy checks have.

https://www.usinflationcalculator.co...flation-rates/

The stimulus checks and the augmented UI had a vast improvement on household savings.

[Hannibal]

If only our Fed followed all of the historical successes of previous countries that have inflated their paper currency by printing shit tons to pay for government programs without any economic output to back it up (e.g. Weimer Republic, Revolutionary France, countless third world countries, etc).

[Jeff Buchanan]

In COVID news, you're going to continue to hear "bad" news. In fact, a recent study published in the NYTs yesterday found that 89% of the MSM's reporting on COVID was negative compared to a generally positive or neutral bias in Scientific and Medical Journals over the same time period. Also yesterday, the CDC's Walenski, in her videoed weekly statement was forced to acknowledge that vaccines are working, having a major impact on deaths and hospitalizations is more like it - see the data - but she didn't say that, but, but, but, it's not time to "let our guard down - whatever that actually means. Of course, COVID news is anything but bad. Hospitalizations continue to decline along with deaths in the US. Globally trends are upward and that, compared to the UK, US and others, is due to slow vaccination rates in the EU and Brazil - another story.

While the CDC did recently release guidance for vaccinated persons, IMO, it is overly cautious. Some reliable sources are saying if you're vaccinated you can travel, go out to dinner, visit friends and the like. There's mixed statements on the need to mask for those who have been vaccinated - it mostly depends on whether those you are around are vaccinated or not and the level of circulating virus in your local community. The CDC continues to recommend against travel, indoor dining, congregate settings and sailing on cruise ships. The messaging from federal public health officials continues to warn against re-opening, referring, I guess, to whatever you have closed now, don't re-open it. That's way over-cautious IMO bordering on completely wrong. The wrongness of it does vary with circumstance but the CDC assumes you are too stupid to make you're own calls on what risks you are willing to take and what you consider safe or unsafe environments.

As a reflection of that and in the micro-world of cruising during a pandemic, last Friday, Michael Fain, CEO of Royal Caribbean Cruise lines (RCL), released a video and press release basically saying they don't agree with the CDC's Conditional Sailing Order (CSO - basically a ban on cruise ships operating from US ports. He said, it's outdated, doesn't reflect the reality of vaccines or the steps the cruise lines have taken to mitigate disease spread aboard ships and should be updated, IOW, the CDC is FOS and we're going to start cruising again.

The following day, Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA) a trade group, made a press release hammering the CDC. In it they argued that over 400,000 passengers had uneventfully sailed on cruise ships in the last 6 months in Europe and Asia proving it can be done safely in the pandemic environment. It went on to list the economic damage being done by continuing to ban cruise ship operations from US ports.

Within hours, cruise lines started announcing cruise itineraries from foreign ports mostly in the Caribbean and Greece. IOW, cruise lines are returning to sailings but not out of the US because the CDC's position is moronic and counter-factual. At about the same time, the Mayor of Miami -Dade Co. sent a letter to the CDC asking for a face to face meeting to discuss re-opening the port of Miami to cruise ships in order to revitalize a $3b travel and leisure economy, generated by cruise ships, shut down, unfairly, for over a year. Pretty sure all of this was choreographed to shit on the CDC's position on the cruise industry by interested parties in the US. The CDC's response was to reiterate the provisions of CSO they issued in October. People I talk with on this don't think the CDC will relent. Too much water under the bridge, too much turf staked out and too far from the cautious messaging from HHS. I bring this up because all of it is reflective of the dangers of government over-reach in a circumstance where government, in the face of on-the-ground reality, is not agile enough to reverse those dangers.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Fuel consumption is not back up to pre-pandemic levels. It's not even close. Refineries are still cut way back and some of them shut down permanently. Point being, gas prices didn't shoot up 80 cents per gallon in the past four months because people suddenly started driving again.

Inflation
Biden shutting down drilling on Fed Lands
OPEC cutting production
Global demand increasing as other countries reopen
Refineries shutting down when Texas went offline
Day 4 (or 5?) of Suez Canal constipation
Air Travel picking up

The price increase has accelerated since Inauguration Day but what's interesting is that it's been steadily rising since the week of Election Day and the first vaccine being approved.

[Hannibal]

Historic rates of inflation can be found here. There's no number for March yet but Feb was 1.7%. That's lower than all of 2018 and all but 2 months of 2017. The tax cuts possibly helped increase it even more than the stimmy checks have.

https://www.usinflationcalculator.co...flation-rates/

Inflation sources like the CPI have a lot of flaws, since they mix together housing, durable goods, and consumables that people need to live into one index. And housing is over 40% of the index. It's debateable whether durable goods have value in an inflation index. I understand why they are, but it's questionable. You never need a new car or a new house, but you need food and gas every month.

Food prices are up about 15%, year-over-year. Compare the red line to the orange line.

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Gasoline is up double digit percent (11% or so) over pre-pandemic levels too.

[iam416]

The government printed a bunch of money that ended up inflating the stock market. If you, like me, are super heavily invested in the stock market, then this has been a huge boon for you. If not, you're getting royally fucked.

I ain't complaining. The government has redistributed more then enough wealth away from me over my lifetime, but last year's stock market runup is one of the greatest wealth transfers of all time. But thank God it went into the financial markets somehow instead of food and gasoline. Hyperinflation of asset values is good for asset owners like me. For now, at least.

Well, actually, it has been affecting prices too. Have you looked at gas prices or your grocery bill lately?

Yeah, the pandemic has been a boon to the professional class. People like me are not keep our jobs, but we save money via WFH, some of us still get "free" government money and the stock markets remain unaffected.

[THE_WIZARD_]

The DJIA will continue to rise as the country exits the ridiculous shutdowns and idiotic local and state policies put in place by Blue politicians hellbent on getting Orangeman. Kudos for the moderate rise whilst killing the economy, lives and livelihoods...bravo!

The arsonist fireman is now the hero!

[iam416]

Well, look -- one or another we're going to find out how much money we can just print. Biden ain't slowing down. If you believe we can just print money forever without cost, then he's your guy.

Now, I can't say where the line is because I just don't know enough about it, but it seems like we're getting close to it.

But, what do I care about inflation. It's regressive. Much like a minimum wage increase, the poor folks pay for it.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Yep

[iam416]

The DJIA will continue to rise as the country exits the ridiculous shutdowns and idiotic local and state policies put in place by Blue politicians hellbent on getting Orangeman. Kudos for the moderate rise whilst killing the economy, lives and livelihoods...bravo!

The arsonist fireman is now the hero!

Yeah. Fortunately a few governors got it exactly right.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Yeah. Fortunately a few governors got it exactly right.

If by few you mean Red State Governors...correct...