Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[AlabamAlum]

Alabama and Georgia had a water battle several years back. Alabama won. Roll Tide.

[Dr. Strangelove]

You shithole cheaters with numbers on your helmets are always winning

[AlabamAlum]

Bringing out the classics. Thank god it has nothing to do with that hack Shostakovich or the East German architecture of the half-land grant faux ivy, Kornelle.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Revise and resubmit

[Jeff Buchanan]

Tough day in COVID news with the US surpassing 500,000 deaths since February, 2020. There's no sugar coating that. I've been personally untouched by the death of a family member or loved one. I have acquaintances or friends of friends who passed before their time due to COVID. Brings it home. But we need to keep the eye on the prize and we're getting there:

Deaths 2-21-21.PNG

As I've posted, the studies coming out of the UK (AZ) and Israel (Pfizer and Moderna) show dramatically reduced hospitalizations and deaths as vaccination administration progresses. More encouraging is the emergence of evidence that all the vaccines suppress transmission.

I read an article in a business magazine that predicted that business travel as well as pleasure travel and leisure activities will remain depressed through the end of 2023, returning to pre-COVID levels in 2024. There is huge pent-up demand for these. I don't think those predicted time frames are accurate. Governments can't continue to hobble their tourism and entertainment economies with barring cruise ship sailings from US ports, sporting and entertainment venue closures, boarder crossing restrictions, train, airport and seaport closures to non-residents who want to travel. Where tourism makes up 10-20% of a country's economy and offers jobs for millions globally, the pressure is going to be intense to allow increased mobility and large gatherings in congregate setting. It does not appear to me that anything is going to stand in the way of a significant increase in air and train travel along with a restart of cruise ship sailings - this occurring as governments succumb to the pressure from major industry trade groups advocating for easing travel restrictions to save jobs and industries while boosting economies without more government bail-outs.

....... and it's not going to be just economic. Humans are social and in this day and age highly mobile. As vaccines roll out and are administered, a growing chorus of voices is going to be asking why governments keep unnecessary mitigation measures and travel restrictions in place when the facts - the science - are saying vaccinated individuals can safely gather in any number of congregate settings; unvaccinated, when present in a mixed group of vaccinated and unvaccinated, only need everyone to mask and distance appropriately like we are doing now with a resumption of travel and leisure activities perfectly acceptable as long as there's a layering of mitigation measures (masks, distancing, capacity limitations, pre-admission testing in large congregate setting (e.g., sporting events, cruise ship operations, concerts), retail and restaurants not required.

Reopening isn't hard to understand or undertake just like not shuttering was a year ago. What stops it is mostly political and an unwillingness on the part of government officials who authorize these reopening to be accountable and take appropriate and limited containment efforts if the infections break out. That could have been done 13 months ago and wasn't with disastrous results. The world can't afford fear and hesitation producing an unnecessary repeat with many travel destinations, according to reliable sources, reaching herd immunity by mid-April.

[Dr. Strangelove]

I think business travel could be permanently altered. Companies are waking up to the fact that a significant portion of that is a total waste of time & money. And airlines make a lot more money off of those passengers versus the tourists back in coach.

[Ghengis Jon]

I spent $30k in 2019 on biz travel and haven't been on a plane since. I live on streamed video now. I don't see frivolous travel returning for another 5 years. I'm retiring in one year so they'll be lucky to get me in the office more than once a month. I may take a farewell trip to see European colleagues in 2022 but that's it. It's not just travel that will change, it will be how employment is domiciled. I see office space demand contracting as remote employment will become viewed as a cost reduction measure. We're going to feel the ripples of covid for a while.

[THE_WIZARD_]

500,000...rrrright.

Bullshit.

[iam416]

One way I've been thinking about Covid is in terms of excessive deaths -- but not excessive deaths over a single year -- but rather, excessive deaths over 3 years or 5 years. It wouldn't surprise me if the excessive deaths over 5 years is less than half of the total Covid deaths.

[Jeff Buchanan]

One way I've been thinking about Covid is in terms of excessive deaths -- but not excessive deaths over a single year -- but rather, excessive deaths over 3 years or 5 years. It wouldn't surprise me if the excessive deaths over 5 years is less than half of the total Covid deaths.

This is another way to look at it and yes, I agree, excess deaths related to COVID will be significantly less than the mounting death toll being reported now over 550K. There's a host of factors that compromise the accuracy of that number. We've discussed them here.

The emphasis on deaths stems from the reality that the pandemic is winding down and will shortly reach epidemic levels and is not particularly shocking and therefore less news worthy. Regional variations will drive that and will be characterized by spurts of localized new case growth in states and counties. The tools to quickly contain them are available and will improve going forward as R0 remains below zero. The MSM is likely to report nation wide, total new case, deaths and hospitalization numbers as these are more startling but ignore regional variations that characterizes an epidemic virus being brought under control.

In about 6 months, SARS-2 will become endemic meaning that it will be added to the long list of viruses and pathogens that afflict humans but are not viewed as producing significant disease burden. You'll recall names like swine flu, bird flue, H1N1 seasonal flu, malaria, polio, measles, yellow fever, bubonic plague, TB, HIV, ebola, SARS, MERS, all of these and more once seen as dangerous death and disability producers now relegated to minor global nuisances because they are sufficiently controlled by vaccines, prophylactic drug therapies and basic hygiene measures, you know, subdued by humans employing medical science and technology.

We should be encouraged and joyful about this but that's now how it works.

[iam416]

I guess my primary point -- which I'm sure you get but I'm also sure went way over The Wizard's head -- is that a very large portion of these deaths are old folks who were probably looking at 0-5 years of life expectancy. They died a a few months or maybe a few years early. That's what the excess death over 3/5 years will capture.

It's a harsh, detached way to look at things, but public policy ought not be about emotion. And, hey -- if you really want to get harsh and detached, the Covid deaths will have a modest upside re entitlement payouts (SS, Medicare).

Ok, that's a little too grim, even for me.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Talent...do you work for Coca-Cola? You are being too white.

[lineygoblue]

That is the America my grandson has to grow up in. He's going to be vilified because he was born white. And worse, a white male. He will apparently be paying for that "sin" for the rest of his life. He's only 2 years old. He faces an entire life of accepted/acceptable discrimination against him because he's white.

I don't think that's what Dr. King had in mind.

[Ghengis Jon]

<rolls eyes>


Has he been enrolled in White Victimhood Pre-School yet? Prepping him to blame his whiteness for everything that doesn't go his way? You sound like Al Sharpton in reverse. Find you were out of coffee this morning?

[THE_WIZARD_]

Stop being so white liney...