Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[iam416]

It's looking like the House will end up at 223-212. It's currently at 221-208 based on different calls that all make sense. There are two outstanding California districtst that are currently tied, more or less, with a reasonable amount of vote still to be counted. Hard to imagine either R winning those. They haven't called the Utah McAdams race, yet, but he's fucking done. That's an R pickup and an AA win! They haven't called NY-22, but that really looks like the Rs will win. They haven't officially tallied the Louisiana run-off, yet, but that's an R. And, finally, the Iowa district has the R up by 40. I guess that could go either way.

So, it's 223-212 or 224-211 depending on the razor-thin Iowa race. A very good night for the Rs.

I should note, however, that everything Sanders and AOC is true -- no D that signed on for Medicare For All or the Green New Deal lost a race. So, I definitely think the reason for the Ds setback was not enough "Democratic"-Socialism. Amp it up to 11 would be my advice. Fuck, man, amp it up to 11 and take that shit for a test drive in Georgia for the next two months and just wait for the glory.

[Ghengis Jon]

Johnson & Johnson is also wrapping up their vaccine testing. My brother is participating in a 'final' quadruple blind test in the Grand Rapids area. Optimistic release pending results is late Dec early Jan.

[iam416]

Hopefully that will be slightly easier to distribute than requiring special freezers and dry ice.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Finally, before we all go and watch CFB ....... another great article from the Economist. This one gets a little technical. I've touted testing here as a panacea in combating the spread of the virus. Experts agree it is but there are important caveats that I wasn't aware of in any kind of specific way. We know the RT/PCR is the gold standard but it takes too much time to be of much use beyond a diagnostic tool. It sucks for screening and surveillance - the stuff you want to do at airports, on cruise ships, going to concerts or large scale events.

The problem for screening and surveillance is that not only does the test need to deliver results quickly, like in a matter of minutes, but also it has to be accurate enough to prevent leakers who are actually infected but for what ever reasons tested negative falsely. That's bad news for people, for example, at a football game crammed into their seats thinking so-and-so strangers to their left and right aren't COVID + when, they actually are. Right now, RAPID antigen tests aren't very accurate; antibody tests like the BINAX-NOW are more accurate. The value of a true positive or negative is affected by a number of things two of them being if the person being tested has symptoms and/or the prevalence of the disease in the locale where the testing is being done. It goes way up when a person actually has symptoms AND where the disease is present and way down when these two factors aren't present.

The chart below demonstrates this:

Testing.JPG

Here's the key point going forward:

For now, rapid tests are licensed for use only by medical professionals. The regulatory bar for stand-alone home tests is high. They must be 99% accurate and pass extensive usability trials to ensure that people employ them correctly. That would be easier if the secretion being tested was saliva, which is freely accessible, rather than material found high in the nose or deep in the throat. Saliva does work reliably in some pcr tests but no one has yet devised a good antigen test that uses it.

At the current pace of progress, though, this may soon change. Bruce Tromberg of America’s National Institutes of Health (nih) thinks that a rapid over-the-counter saliva based antigen test could be available in America as early as next summer. Rapid antigen tests are, then, likely to become a big part of countries’ covid-19 testing strategies. In particular, they will be used for testing at home, in doctors’ offices and clinics, and in remote places where pcr laboratories are not available. They will be especially handy for mass testing in places prone to outbreaks, such as large congregate settings, prisons and student dormitories.

https://www.economist.com/science-an...r=nl_special_3

[Dr. Strangelove]

Late at night the Governor of North Dakota issued a mask mandate and the first restrictions the state has imposed all year. Restricted hours for bars and restaurants. Reduced capacity. All winter sports and extracurricular events canceled until Dec 14.

I saw where Wyoming may do something similar soon. Their Governor was complaining that if people won't follow the guidance voluntarily, he'll have to step in.

https://bismarcktribune.com/news/local/health/in-reversal-north-dakota-governor-issues-mask-mandate-other-steps-to-slow-virus/article_8a7b77d5-7b08-5003-93ec-5ba2ac9ab1c9.html

[Jeff Buchanan]

If I lived in ND, and operated a restaurant or other related business I'd want to see hospitalizations state wide and be convinced that the state's hospital systems are unable to deliver the necessary level of care either due to staff shortages or bed space limitations. Another measure I'd want to now about: Are new positives at such a high number that the state's contact tracing capacity is being overwhelmed. I'd also want to see proof that my restaurant is responsible for viral spread at levels that precipitate a serious PH risk ..... somebody getting the virus at my place, being asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic and recovering should not shut me down....... I did try to get to the link to see if that data was in the article but I couldn't. To see it I had to answer some stupid Google survey. Fuck that.

[Cody_Russell]

181k confirmed covid cases YESTERDAY. Damn... and I thought seeing 40k confirmed cases in a day was high a few months ago...

[CGVT]

181k confirmed covid cases YESTERDAY. Damn... and I thought seeing 40k confirmed cases in a day was high a few months ago...

But... We've rounded the final turn.

[Hannibal]

CA 25 is down to a 100 vote margin for the R and IA 2 is a 40 vote margin. Razor thin.

Georgia's hand recount is underway. Arizona I assume will have something like that as well but I haven't read or heard anything to that effect. The final margin will be less than 10,000 votes.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Bill Maher can be really bad sometimes. He's really good here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SgrZAPUvKyA

[iam416]

It's shooting fish in a barrel with nuclear warheads.

[froot loops]

The lesson of 2009 and of 2020 is to err on the side of more helicopter money rather than less. Interest rates are very low, throw the money around. I say this as a guy who found himself unemployed during the start of the pandemic who didn't qualify for any stimulus checks nor did I qualify for unemployment and won't get shit in the next round. You don't gain anything in the long run by being stingy.

[Hannibal]

Bill Maher can be really bad sometimes. He's really good here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SgrZAPUvKyA

I really used to Like Bill Maher. Shame he went so far left after making his career on being a legit Libertarian. I still have some respect for the guy though.

[Dr. Strangelove]

CA 25 is down to a 100 vote margin for the R and IA 2 is a 40 vote margin. Razor thin.

Georgia's hand recount is underway. Arizona I assume will have something like that as well but I haven't read or heard anything to that effect. The final margin will be less than 10,000 votes.

Unless they change their mind there will be a recount in Wisconsin too.

Trump's people already threw in the towel on that Arizona Sharpie business. They lost yesterday in Michigan too even with that IT woman's affidavit (it turns out the defendants had a shit-ton of affidavits too). And an appeals court threw out all 5 appeals they had lodged in Pennsylvania.

These cases are pure shit and all the lawyers know it.

I mean Trump is so desperate for anything that he's now accusing Brian Kemp of colluding with Stacey Abrams to cheat him out of victory.

[Hannibal]

I said it above but I don't think that Trump's heart is in this one. His supporters have organized a big march in DC today and it sounds like he's not even going to go there to address them, even though the attendance is likely going to be bigger than any of his campaign rallies.