Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[THE_WIZARD_]

Not butthurt at all. Gridlock is good. Good for my portfolio. The nation rejected Trump but not the conservatives. Still have the Senate, gained seats in the house, and own the court now. Joe/ HUH (Heels Up Harris) will have a hard time doing anything for two years...and I see an R landslide in 2022 if they try to initiate the Crazy Bernie agenda.

So I'm feeling great!

[Dr. Strangelove]

EmU1-XQXMAIjeS_?format=jpg&name=small.jpg

[AlabamAlum]

The Four Seasons stuff is just hilarious. A fitting end to the Trump presidency.

Although, this is kinda funny, too:

[iam416]

So true

[Jeff Buchanan]

OK, fine, I pushed enough "likes" for conservatism. Back to where I have some insight.

Wow, that was a meaty article on COVID from the link you provided AA. That was the one where a group of UK scientists and Docs took issue with the data saying it's interpretation by the UK government that was behind the emerging lock-downs (that term used loosely as I have described previously) is faulty, misleading and a bunch of other bad stuff. I think we had a group of US scientist and MDS like this very early on saying the same thing ...... they got shouted down and silenced I believe.

Misinterpreting data? That's been a problem all along. I did think their argument against stricter mitigation measures missed some obvious home runs. The group did sort-of develop the argument that deaths are rising because that's what they do in November. They didn't flesh this out though - they needed to show that excess deaths due to COVID are remaining stable or falling and that stability does not warrant stricter mitigation measures. I would have liked to have seen that data. It's out there but not in the public space.

They didn't hit this one either - I touched on this in this morning's COVID post: I want to see length of stay data on hospitalizations where the primary DX was COVID or exacerbation of a documented respiratory or cardiac disease by COVID. I know that data is available and I suspect it supports the claim that people admitted for COVID or disease exacerbation from COVID are getting better faster, getting discharged sooner and not dying in the hospital. While there are more hospitalizations and the data supports that, the article reported on an interview that produced some moaning from a single source - a grumpy looking and sounding UK doctor in the NHS that the rate of hospitalizations was "not sustainable." Keep in mind that medical staff in UK's NHS are uniformly unhappy and under-paid in comparison to their counterparts that are in private practice on the side. Take what they say about being over-worked with caution. Show me the fucking factual data that support a claim that beds are unavailable and surveys that prove staff are overwhelmed.

Anyway, what I found interesting was how effective the government presentation supporting the "lock-down" and massive testing was. It looks nice, it's easy to read and, of course, it suits the government's purpose of urging British citizens to close up shop, go home and lock yourselves up there for a few weeks and we'll beat this thing, go team! Obviously, the US isn't the only country distorting the data to support the urging of PH officials to lock your doors and hide in your basements until the virus goes away. The difference, it appears, between the US and UK is that in the US the press is carrying the water for proponents of locking everything and everybody down. Fuck that.

[Cody_Russell]

Not butthurt at all. Gridlock is good. Good for my portfolio. The nation rejected Trump but not the conservatives. Still have the Senate, gained seats in the house, and own the court now. Joe/ HUH (Heels Up Harris) will have a hard time doing anything for two years...and I see an R landslide in 2022 if they try to initiate the Crazy Bernie agenda.

So I'm feeling great!

Assuming Rs don’t lose the Georgia senate runoffs in January. Very significant for the direction of the US for the next 2+ years.

Rs did win the last senate runoff. 2018 in Mississippi if I remember correctly.

If Ds are willing to spend $100M+ on Jamie Harrison, why not dump a few hundred million on Georgia...

[THE_WIZARD_]

They'll try I'm sure. I see dead people...voting in Georgia...

[Dr. Strangelove]

Biden won Hennepin County, Minnesota by 326,496 votes

Add up the rest of the entire state and Trump won it by only 93,337 votes.

Like Nevada, Georgia, and (sort of) Arizona, Minnesota is dominated by one massive metro area and a bunch of mostly empty pro-Trump counties.

[THE_WIZARD_]

STFU

[iam416]

Biden campaign promises, literally, that AOC won’t be disappointed with their agenda.

Georgia, are you paying attention?

[Jeff Buchanan]

Dow Futures are up over 300 points. Not that that will translate into tomorrow's trading but it signals that investors are liking the Biden presidency as long as there is a back-stop to a progressive agenda in the Senate. So, yeah, GA are you listening? I don't think investors want an unleashed Harris led progressive legislative agenda un-checked by a D controlled House and Senate. Scary.

Cancellation of EO environmental and regulatory roll backs that Trump put in place, something we should expect Biden to do within a day or two of sitting down in the oval office, don't seem to be phasing investors. Probably because whatever Trump did did not amount to much of a tailwind on investment in the banking and energy producing sectors of the economy. His dumb-ass tweets where the major cause of the huge market swings over the last 6m. That those will be gone next year has to have traders ecstatic.

But as Wiz pointed out, "gridlock is good for my portfolio." So far it has been very good. I think other factors, like the false media narrative that inappropriately spreads fear of COVID, if it continues and I think it will, is going to create headwinds if not a steep drop. Biden is going to have to be very careful with his messaging about how he is going to deal with the pandemic. Hints of a lock-down will savage the Dow. I have no doubt he'll be waaaayyy better than Trump at that but don't expect a 30,000 Dow by the end of the year. One hovering between 26K and 28K is more likely and would be reflective of a cautious attitude among traders.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Great vaccine news

[iam416]

Pfizer. 90% effective. Early data.

Biden may just crush the virus without crushing the economy!

[Hannibal]

The distinction between Republicans and Democrats is much hazier than it used to be when it comes to the stock market. There are lots of polices that, overall, make America poorer, but that a subset of corporations can capitalize on. One of the best examples is renewable fuels and greenhouse gas management. It's going to double or triple the cost of energy, but the corporations who can cash in on all of the subsidies and barriers to market entry are going to make bank. There are also many corporations that benefit from the welfare state and from illegal immigration. A corporation like Wal-Mart prospers having lots of low income consumers. Granted, everyone will be poorer once they have to pay the bills for the extra burden on the welfare state, but that ain't Wal-Mart's problem.

My advice to anyone know is to identify the economic lifeboats and get on board before it's too late. We are headed towards Banana Republic socialism and in that economy, the losers will vastly outnumber the winners. Our economy will also increasingly become a "Grift" economy in which completely worthless individuals like "Diversity Consultants" will enjoy increasing power and income. I have more or less adopted an "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em" attitude to this long term trend.

I expect a significant and long-lived stock market decline in about 15-20 years when Gen X-ers like me start retiring and cashing out of the market. 401Ks in Gen Y and Z are not going to be nearly as well funded, thanks to crushing student loan debts. Point being, fewer people will be participating in the market, and that will rot the value over time.

[lineygoblue]

I hope the Pfizer story is true. We need some good Covid news.

The timing is deliciously ironic, but if it can help people to not get the virus, I'm in favor.

Over/Under on how/when Kamala/Joe take credit for it.