Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Jeff Buchanan]

COVID is out of the bag in Europe and the US isn't far behind. Given my usual rants about pandemic data tom-foolery, you might find it unusual that I'm not going to do that.

The media has gotten sharp. They are focusing on hospitalizations and the numbers don't lie when apples and apples are being compared and that is the situation within the EU. I looked at the data and there are more hospitalizations in Europe now than at the height of the pandemic in the spring. What I don't know and can't find are comparative figures for recoveries, hospital discharges v. confirmed deaths.

If you are looking to frighten or shock people you wouldn't report any positive news about increasing rates of recoveries, hospital discharges with confirmed deaths (CFR) falling. IOW, yeah, people are getting hospitalized but they get better, not dying and are discharged way faster than in the spring. That would seem to be logical, right? I'd like to say that an increased rate of hospitalizations in Europe aren't indicative of increasing mortality and morbidity but that kind of granular data isn't out there, at least that I can find...... yet.

So, the COVID data that's out there is troubling. I'm inclined to think there's more to this than meets the eye and you know I will find it. I would have expected the NYTs to change it's anti-Trump, COVID narrative with a Biden presidency assured but that's not happening .... yet. The need for enforced masking, draconian lock down measures to beat the pandemic is a popular media narrative in Europe and the US - officials imposing all levels of economic and social restrictions need that drum beat to keep challenges to them at bay. It's also possible here in the US that the media is setting up a Biden presidency to ride in on a white stallion and save the day. Entirely possible.

[iam416]

The way Covid is going to run its course, IMO, is going to naturally coincide with Biden taking office. He'll claim credit as any competent politician would. But, meh.

There's not much doubt that huge increases in cases are going to see increased deaths, but CFR is still much lower than originally seen. And I don't think we're going to see skyrocketing deaths. If I had to guess, I'd say US deaths are in the 800-1500 daily range for the foreseeable future. That's still less than April. Hell, NY alone was at 800 daily in April. 1500 per day is high, but that still "only" translates to 540,000 for the year. Again, way below original estimates (1M-2.5M). 540,000 is also below annual heart disease deaths. And, again, I think there are parallels to heart disease in terms of who dies.

The reality, of course, that no one will report on, is that "younger" folks (say under FORTY) are wise to the fact that they aren't at any sort of meaningful risk. The MEDIA did everything they could to keep this shit tamped down and even went out of its way to write bullshit stories about one-off deaths of young people as scare tactics. But, that ship has sailed and that particular jig is up. So, the reality is that there are a shit-ton of people who are just going to deal with Covid and do so without an ounce of fear. And those people aren't going to collectively commit lock themselves in their basements to protect people over the age of 80. Ain't going to happen, NOR SHOULD IT.

When we ACTUALLY start to run out of hospital beds and ICUs, then that's an issue. That hasn't happened except for maybe for a few days in the Bronx.

[Dr. Strangelove]

[iam416]

Incidentally, unemployement fell like a rock in October and we were down to 6.5% or something. I have zero doubt that the dropping unemployment is related to increased cases. That's always been the choice. As The Wizard has said repeatedly, the Zimbabweans have a saying...

[AlabamAlum]

Covid risk overstated? No doubt this piece will be used in Biden’s America:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8925427/Official-data-exaggerating-risk-Covid-500-academics-tell-Boris-Johnson.html

[lineygoblue]

You mean Kamala's America.

I still have the under at October 1st.

[Hannibal]

Joe Biden has changed his social media profiles to "President-elect Biden". But this is technically incorrect. The electoral college has not voted yet and the states have not certified their vote counts and declared winners.

I wonder when Twitter and Facebook will lock his account for spreading "misleading" information.

[THE_WIZARD_]

...

[THE_WIZARD_]

.....

[froot loops]

My wife still has to deal with the COVID shit and she said it is going to get real bad. As it is, her hospital is jam packed

[AlabamAlum]

I agree, froot, I think it’s bad. I also think that once you add influenza to the patient mix, it will be even worse. I do, however, think how it is reported in the media will evolve, though.

[Dr. Strangelove]

I can't say 100% with confidence what I'd do, but I'm pretty sure that if I were the President and legitimately believed that the election had been stolen, hundreds of thousands of fake ballots cast, and democracy was being overthrown, I wouldn't go out golfing back-to-back days.

[lineygoblue]

I can't say 100% with confidence what I'd do, but I'm pretty sure that if I were the President and legitimately believed that the election had been stolen, hundreds of thousands of fake ballots cast, and democracy was being overthrown, I wouldn't go out golfing back-to-back days.

Well, he needs to be in no hurry to show his displeasure.

He's got a 4 year example from Hillary as to how a defeated candidate is supposed to act.

[CGVT]

FWIW, I retired from the Coast Guard in 2013 after 30 years, took a real job managing distribution for a food bank for a couple of years and then decided to do something low stress with enough pay to get my last kid through college without dinging my retirement investments.
I've been driving a special needs school bus for a few years. In the past at this time of year the kids on my bus would all be or would have been sick. I would have caught the crap by now too. But... This year they, and I are remarkably cold/cough/flu free. I have no scientific basis, but I think it comes down to the COVID mitigation measures. Masks required, although it is challenge to keep them on the kids on my bus, temperature checks and frequent hand washing at school, extreme sanitation measures at school, hand sanitizer for each as the board the bus and the bus is sanitized twice a day. Class rooms are cleaned and sanitized ever day, sometimes more often.
I think aggressive mitigation measures short of total shutdown that are believed in and followed have a positive effect.
Of course, YMMV

[Cody_Russell]

I'm just impressed their aren't any riots. Far right was the cause of all those buildings burning, right? According to CNN? It's been rather quiet.

Simply an objective observation.