Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Mike]

Yep. I still think the map favors Biden. That my mail box was full of D mailers for the better part of 2 months is becoming clearer tonight.

[lineygoblue]

I've voted in every Presidential election since 1972. That was the first year 18 year olds were allowed to vote. They had voter registration for us at our high school, Flint Northern HS.

I've never seen lines of people waiting to vote like I saw today. About the closest was in 1992 when Clinton was elected.

As I said earlier, whatever the final outcome is, it will have a lot of votes behind it. At least in Michigan that's the case.

[lineygoblue]

Wow .. I just saw that Republican John James has a double digit lead for the US Senate seat occupied by Democrat Gary Peters here in Michigan. Lots of votes to count still, but for him to be that far ahead at this late hour was not expected. The only place Peters has done well is in Wayne and Oakland counties. Everywhere else, its James.

I hope James can hang on and win. Michigan has needed to split those senate seats for a long time. All Peters and Stupidnow have ever done is toddle along behind Chuck Schumer and vote however he tells them to. Neither has had an independent thought in years. James seems to be a good man. A war veteran, and solid character. We need his voice in Washington.

[Cody_Russell]

John James has 28,000 more votes than Trump with 65% in.
I know there is still a lot to come with Michigan (and Wisconsin, Pennsylvania...), but maybe it's possible Trump loses Michigan and James wins by a slim margin. It's going to be tight!
Either way, senate races appear to have gone well for Rs.

and I mentioned it the other day... Gary Peters pissed me off with those non-stop commercials during the MSU vs M game (as someone that no longer lives in Michigan)... annoying!

[Hannibal]

So somebody fill me in on what's going on with the vote counts having been stagnant for a few hours now -- is the only thing left to be counted the early mail-ins in PA, WI, MI, etc? If so, it looks like Biden's going to win. Those will put him over the top in Georgia and keep him in the lead in Nevada and Arizona.

AZ has barely added to their vote total since their first huge block of reporting.

[Cody_Russell]

They stopped counting ballots in Pennsylvania and will start again tomorrow morning at 10am according to NBC/ Chuck Todd. Mail in and early voting.
Ridiculous

...

Wisconsin - They are saying Milwaukee area will drop in a big batch around 4am ... of course
Michigan - I would guess* Detroit/ southeast Michigan is holding it up.
Pennsylvania - Surprise, Philly area.
Georgia - Atlanta area....

[Hannibal]

So is it a given that the remainder of the vote in each state will go overwhelmingly for Biden? I assume that's why Georgia is favored to go to Biden on the NY Times even though Trump is still up. Even if Trump has a big enough lead to survive in PA, WI, and MI, he still loses without NC, GA, NV, and AZ.

[Cody_Russell]

Not a given necessarily, but more should go to Biden than Trump.
If things were a given, Biden would have won already! Right, “polls.”

...

Trump basically declared victory in his speech.
Pence gave a similar speech as Biden.

[Hannibal]

So what votes, exactly, are still being counted and how come some states appear to have counted almost no votes since about 11 PM?

Arizona reported Biden up big immediately with about 75% of the vote counted, and then stopped at about 80%.

I know that early voting was big, but did 29% of Michigan really vote by mail?

And there is a county in Nevada that doesn't have a single vote counted.

Philly has 50% of the vote counted. The remainder can't be all by mail. It looks like some states have just stopped counting.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Miami-Dade was quite a surprise - pundits had been predicting a heavy Trump turnout among law and order oriented Hispanic (mostly Cuban) voters. Biden still prevailed. Biden easily won Broward and Palm-Beach counties in South FL and in all the counties of the major cities ..... still Trump carried the state with rural FL voters. Go figure.

I don't think Biden or Trump will get to 270 - at least I'll be surprised if one of them does within the next 2 days. There will be legitimate vote count challenges that will hold up the selection of a winner. The non-sense Trump is talking about going to the USSC to stop the late vote counting is a non-starter. He's already been turned away on that count in several states where late counting was challenged.

Trump, to his discredit, is already calling the election fraudulent setting up his post election strategy of victimization and deflection of blame. I thought it was amusing that all the ABC analysts were getting worked up about this and alleged Trump was blowing a "dog whistle" at his supporters to take up arms and support him...... about as irresponsible to put that idea out there as it was for Trump to start calling the election a fraud.

Still, this may be the first US Presidential election since the 1800s (there were several) that could be decided by a Contingent Election specified in 12A. Looking at this I found this prescient study completed in October 2020 that explains how that works. Somebody was correctly thinking this might happen in 2020. The newly elected Congress decides, not the presently siting one. 12A specifies the House chooses the president by vote and the Senate chooses the VP. Has to be completed by January 20th, Inauguration day. A Biden/Pence executive? That would be interesting. Details at the link:

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R40504.pdf

[Dr. Strangelove]

As of 4:50 Politico has Biden up in Wisconsin by about 8,000 votes.

Hanni- Philadelphia County had almost 350,000 mail-in ballots. I don't know if any of those have already been counted

EDIT: Regarding Wisconsin, it's being reported that Milwaukee County is now effectively DONE. Anything left would be provisionals, no more than a couple hundred added here or there.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

[Dr. Strangelove]

Nevada is only a 9,000 vote difference but it's not clear what's left. Clark County hasn't hit its 2016 vote yet. Could be mail ins

[Hannibal]

The NYT turned off their tickers except for NC and GA, which they are predicting to go for Trump and Biden, respectively.

Trump still has a path to victory if he holds onto PA, GA, NC, and flips Nevada. But if mail-ins are all that's left, then Nevada ain't happenin'. FWIW there are a lot of unfinished counties there and there are a couple of unfinished counties in WI.

Weird though that Florida may end up being four points to the right of Georgia this time around.

[Hannibal]

It would be wise for all of these states to bend over backwards and do whatever it is they can do to get the rest of the votes that are in their hands counted this morning. Eliminate any appearance of shenanigans from the election dragging on and let's be done with it.

[iam416]

Looks like the Cook Report was wildly wrong re the House.

Looks like the Rs are going to hold the Senate.

I still think Biden is going to win, though.

But, a very big part of me really enjoys watching this Media/Poll bubble narrative of "landslide" get absolutely obliterated.